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EN
This article analyses the traffic accident rate on roads and highways and possibilities of risk evaluation related to traffic accident occurrence based on factors that were the causes of accidents. A new term - risk of traffic accident occurrence is a product of probability of accident occurrence and its impacts. The results are presented by way of example that uses selected statistical data of the Slovak Republic traffic accident rate between 2002 - 2012. The article provides a brief methodological procedure of evaluation of the traffic accident rate using the risk of traffic accident occurrence.(original abstract)
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W pracy podjęto problem oceny ryzyka zmian cen akcji za pomocą dwóch grup miar: klasycznych i nieklasycznych. W grupie miar klasycznych znalazły się odchylenie standardowe oraz współczynnik zmienności. Miary nieklasyczne reprezentowane są przez wymiar fraktalny. Materiał badawczy stanowią szeregi czasowe cen akcji czterech spółek notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie. Prezentowany w pracy wymiar fraktalny uznany został za dobre uzupełnienie miar klasycznych, gdyż jest miarą o prostej interpretacji i jednocześnie pozwala na skuteczne klasyfikowanie akcji ze względu na poziom ryzyka. (abstrakt oryginalny) á
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This paper discusses the problem of assessing the risk of change in stock prices using two measure groups: classical and non-classical. In the classical group there are classic standard deviation and coefficient of variation. Non-classical measurements are represented by fractal dimension. The research material includes the time series of stock prices of four companies listed on the Stock Exchange in Warsaw. The fractal dimension, presented in the paper, has been recognized as a good complement to conventional measures, since it is a measure of a simple interpretation, and allows for effective classification of shares due to the level of risk. (original abstract)
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This study aims to develop a new Interval Rough COmbinative Distance-based Assessment (IR CODAS) method for handling multiple criteria group decision making problems using linguistic terms. A single decision maker is unable to express his opinions or preferences on multiple criteria decisions, while a Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making MCGDM process ensures successful outcomes when handling greater imprecision and vagueness information. A real-life case study of risk assessment is investigated using our proposed IR-CODAS method to test and validate its application; a sensitivity analysis is also performed.
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Jednym ze sposobów uzyskania energii elektrycznej z odnawialnych źródeł energii są biogazownie. Dzięki wykorzystaniu odpadów, nie tylko rolniczych, i beztlenowej fermentacji uzyskuje się biogaz, który może być wykorzystany do produkcji metanu. Biogazownie jak każde urządzenia techniczne narażone są na różnego rodzaju zagrożenia, w szczególności na wybuchy metanu. Celem artykułu jest ocena ryzyka eksploatacji biogazowni na potrzeby objęcia ich ochroną ubezpieczeniową. W artykule przedstawiamy stan biogazowni w Polsce i najbliższe perspektywy ich rozwoju. Wskazujemy zakres i warunki ubezpieczenia biogazowni od wybranych zdarzeń losowych. W artykule podajemy próby oszacowania sumy ubezpieczenia, a także rodzaje i częstości szkód, jakie mogą powstać w czasie eksploatacji biogazowni(abstrakt oryginalny)
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One of the ways to obtain electricity from renewable energy sources is biogas. Through the use of waste (agricultural and industrial) and anaerobic fermentation in the socalled biogas plants biogas is obtained, which can be used for the production of methane.. Biogas plants as any technical devices are exposed to various risks, in particular methane explosions. The aim of the article is to assess the risk of exploitation of biogas plants for their inclusion in the insurance. In the article we present the status of biogas plants in Poland and prospects for their development. We indicate the scope and terms of insurance biogas from some random events. In this article we attempt to estimate the sum insured the types and frequency of damage that may arise during the operation of biogas plants(original abstract)
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Artykuł wskazuje na możliwość wykorzystania informacji pochodzących z projektów informatycznych typu open source do oceny ryzyka. Sposób pozyskania i przygotowania danych ma charakter autorski i jest wstępem do oceny ryzyka projektu informatycznego w oparciu o metodę wartości ryzykowanej - VaR (ang. Value at Risk).(fragment tekstu)
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The article presents the possibility of using data from Open Source IT projects for risk evaluation. The way of preparing the data was proposed by an author and it is only an introduction to risk assessment based on the Value at Risk method.(original abstract)
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Risk most frequently relates to serious negative consequences that seldom occur. In the most common meaning, risk refers to the whole spectrum of unwelcome effects along with all related probabilities5. Hydrological risk is generally defined as probability that a phenomenon will occur bringing about losses that are frequently difficult to assess. Such a definition predominantly refers to extreme phenomena including e.g. unusually large flooding, long lasting deep low water or occurrence of a phenomenon value that exceeds (above or below) a value that a particular water management facility (dams, floodbanks, water intakes, etc) is designed for. Emergence of such phenomena results in destroying or malfunctioning of a particular facility and all related losses. Risk assessment may distinguish two major issues, i.e. risk assessment and risk acceptability assessment. Risk assessment may be performed by means of different methods including a tree of events method, a tree of errors method, a direct method based on empirical data and a method of the most grievous likely accident. First two methods are applied in qualitative analyses and qualitative ones that set probability of event series. Such methods involve decomposition of an analysed event into elemental events. A qualitative analysis allows for knowing and understanding a situation in the whole range of risk. However, a quantitative analysis of a series of events leads to assessing an amount of risk. The third of the methods mentioned above involves assessing risk without decomposition of an event subject to research on the basis of empirical data, i.e. sequences of observations of the event in question, In fourth method the most detrimental but simultaneously possible series of events leads to the most grievous but still likely accident. (fragment of text)
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The aim of this chapter is to identity and control areas of risk in the process of capital allocation in the local government. Researches were used for the analysis of this issue. (fragment of text)
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W pracy przeanalizowano zagadnienie wyznaczenia oceny grupowej w sytuacji, gdy oceny podane przez ekspertów mają charakter porządków częściowych oraz gdy dopuszcza się możliwość występowania obiektów równoważnych zarówno w ocenach ekspertów, jak i w ocenie grupowej. Przyjęto, że zostanie zastosowana metoda mediany Kemeny'ego polegająca na minimalizacji odległości szukanego uporządkowania od zbioru uporządkowań podanych przez ekspertów. (abstrakt oryginalny)
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The paper is concerned with determining group judgement for the case when experts ' opinions are given in the form of partial orders and tied alternatives can occur in experts' opinions as well as in group judgement. The Kemeny median method is applied to solve the problem of minimization of the distance between preference orders.(original abstract)
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W artykule zaprezentowana została idea i konstrukcja programowa oryginalnego systemu waluacji ryzyka realizacji oprogramowania, oparta na adaptacji podejścia VaR. Przedstawione zostały zagadnienia analizy ryzyka realizacji oprogramowania, oryginalna propozycja modelu oceny ryzyka produkcji oprogramowania, metoda oceny ryzyka w projektach informatycznych, jak też weryfikacja modelu. W artykule zostały uwzględnione w szczególności: duża zmienność otoczenia, wieloetapowy charakter działań przy udziale dużej liczby osób, duża złożoność i trudności w ustrukturyzowaniu zadań, niedostatecznie zaawansowane metodyki realizacji projektów informatycznych.(abstrakt oryginalny)
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The article presents the idea and design of the original method and its implementation associated with the valuation of risks in IT projects. This new method is based on the adaptation of the VaR approach. The article shows the issues of risk analysis in software production, the original proposition of risk assessment model of software projects, as well as the verification of the model. The paper takes into account in particular: high volatility of environment, multi-step nature of the activities with the participation of a large number of people, high complexity of project's tasks and the lack of risk validation in methodology for the implementation of IT projects.(original abstract)
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Globalization of the financial markets, the increasing competition between organizations and social and technological development encourage the application of new advanced risk assessment methods. New technological achievements help the researchers and practicians to realize the importance of using various analytical approaches in assessing enterprise performance and evaluating the criteria describing the risk of the performed operations, in particular. Most of decision-making specialists and researchers emphasize that the standard methods used in this area do not well agree with human ability of data perception and processing. A possible solution to this problem is the application of verbal analysis decision-making methods, which are scientifically grounded and use the evaluation criteria, based on psychology. It may be stated that risk assessment depends on a number of variables. Striving for objectivity of a decision, which should assess the risk of the considered object from various perspectives, a great number of various types of risk and the criteria describing them should be evaluated. The investment decision with a higher than planned risk level has a strong negative effect on the effectiveness of other decisions and the level of satisfaction of the interested parties. Therefore, the effect of all changes on the final estimate should be accurately evaluated and calculated. The authors of the paper suggest using the evaluation methods based on verbal analysis as the approaches, requiring the minimum amount of quantitative data. (fragment of text)
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Content available remote Proposition of a Method of Verification Occupational Risk Assessment
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Purpose: The aim of this article is to propose a method allowing for an objective verification method of prepared occupational risk assessment in companies. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology of presented method consists from two steps including hazards checking according to presented unified template and counting the result of the indicator of verification according to prepared indicators presented in this article. Findings: Proposal of method included in this article allows to ease leading the process of verification occupational risk assessment thanks to standardized way of verification process. Practical implications: Application of the proposed method as the basic internal audit or inspection tool in the area of occupational risk management for checking propriety of functioning risk assessment in organizations. Originality/value: Unique method of verification prepared risk assessment results.(original abstract)
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Content available remote Benefits and Costs of Environmental Management in Enterprises of Wielkopolska
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The benefits and costs of environmental management system (EMS) according to ISO 14001 in enterprises of Wielkopolska were discussed in the paper. The presented data originate from survey conducted in 35 companies with implemented ISO 14001. Most of them were medium and large enterprises with legal personality. The main goal of the research was identification of benefits and costs resulting from implementation and maintenance of the EMS. The conducted survey proves that in result of the EMS implementation the enterprises gained direct (reduction of raw materials consumption and increase of competitiveness) and indirect benefits (improvement of image). They incurred lower costs for maintenance than for implementation of environmental management system. (original abstract)
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Content available remote Analysis of Factors Harmful for Petrol Chainsaw Operator
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The paper presents an analysis of the factors harmful to the chainsaw operator. It analyses the fundamental group of harmful factors such as physical, chemical, biological and psychophysical ones. Among the dangerous factors occurring for the chainsaw operator that directly affect the post and occupy an important place are primarily physical factors: noise, vibration, microclimate, lighting, dust and mechanical hazards. Very hazard are accidents at work. Accidents at work are of the economic importance both for the company, the victim, as well as for society. Incurring such costs represents a significant loss in relation to GDP both in Poland and also in highly developed countries of the European Union. At present the employment in the State Forests is only 25.5 thousand people, and the number of employees in this department of the national economy is gradually decreasing. At the beginning of the 1990s the number of employees fluctuated between 100 thousand. [http://www.wprost.pl (accessed 05.17.2014)] Most of the employees of the State Forests are employed as manual and maintenance workers(original abstract)
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Globalization of the financial markets, the increasing competition between organizations and social and technological development encourage the application of new advanced risk assessment methods. New technological achievements help the researchers and practicians to realize the importance of using various analytical approaches in assessing enterprise performance and evaluating the criteria describing the risk of the performed operations, in particular. Most of decision-making specialists and researchers emphasize that the standard methods used in this area do not well agree with human ability of data perception and processing. A possible solution to this problem is the application of verbal analysis decision-making methods, which are scientifically grounded and use the evaluation criteria, based on psychology. It may be stated that risk assessment depends on a number of variables. Striving for objectivity of a decision, which should assess the risk of the considered object from various perspectives, a great number of various types of risk and the criteria describing them should be evaluated. The investment decision with a higher than planned risk level has a strong negative effect on the effectiveness of other decisions and the level of satisfaction of the interested parties. Therefore, the effect of all changes on the final estimate should be accurately evaluated and calculated. The authors of the paper suggest using the evaluation methods based on verbal analysis as the approaches, requiring the minimum amount of quantitative data.
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Artykuł jest fragmentem badań prowadzonych w zakresie funkcjonowania i strategii rozwojowych polskich przedsiębiorstw w kontekście ścieżek ich powstawania. Dotyczą one wpływu uwarunkowań historycznych na ocenę ryzyka inwestycyjnego według kryterium prowadzonych działalności w badanych spółkach kapitałowych.
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Content available remote Risk assessment in coronary patients undergoing abdominal nonvascular surgery
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The aim of our study was to establish that the incidence of perioperative cardiac complications were in direct correlation with level of operative risk in coronary patients undergoing open abdominal nonvascular surgery with general anesthesia. Our prospective observational clinical study was composed of a group of 111 consecutive patients with angiographically-verified coronary artery disease, who were operated on at the University Clinical Center of Serbia. The patients were classified into four stratification subgroups by “Goldman’s Cardiac Risk Index” (CRI) in relation to the incidence of perioperative cardiac complications. Electrocardiography was performed immediately after surgery, on postoperative days 1, 2, 7 and one day before discharge from the hospital. All patients were followed to postoperative day 30. Statistical design was presented by Pearson’s χ2 test and binomial logistic regression. The main result was significant difference between the four stratification subgroups of coronary patients in the incidence of cardiac death up to the 30th postoperative day: I - 0/17 (0.0%) vs. II - 0/40 (0.0%) vs. III - 1/37 (2.7%) vs. IV - 2/17 (11.8%), (p<0.05). We concluded that the incidence of perioperative cardiac complications significantly increased with the degree of Goldman’s CRI. There was significant difference in the incidence of perioperative cardiac complications between the four Goldman’s stratification subgroups.
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W artykule zaprezentowano zagadnienie oceny ryzyka innowacji technicznych w kontekście ocen, jakie przydzielają eksperci poszczególnym kryteriom oceny. W przeprowadzonym badaniu uwzględniono wpływ takich elementów jak: sposób umiejscowienia kontroli decydenta, motywację w działaniu oraz potrzebę stymulacji. Ocena ryzyka innowacji technicznych ma charakter wielokryterialny. Związana jest z wyborem zespołu ekspertów, który powinien mieć charakter celowy. Celem głównym pracy był podział ekspertów na grupy ze względu na oceny, jakie przypisują analizowanym kryteriom. Celem pośrednim było sprawdzenie, w jaki sposób indywidualne cechy charakteru eksperta wpływają na postrzeganie ważności kryteriów. W artykule wykorzystano analizę skupień jako metodę grupowania obiektów. Przedstawione w artykule wyniki dotyczą analizy sześciu cech osobowości: zewnątrzsterowność (1) i wewnątrzsterowność (2), ukierunkowanie na sukces (3) i unikanie porażek (4), potrzeba silnych wrażeń (5) i unikanie silnych wrażeń (6). Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, iż niezależna analiza poszczególnych cech ekspertów nie pozwala na jednoznaczne wykrycie różnic pomiędzy grupami. Dalsze badania powinny być zatem prowadzone w kierunku analizy polegającej na zestawieniu cech w pary lub trójki i przeprowadzeniu analiz w zestawieniu łączonym tych cech. (abstrakt oryginalny)
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This paper presents the issue of risk assessment of technical innovations in the context of assessments that experts assign to particular criteria of evaluation. The study takes into account the influence of such elements as: the location of the decision-maker, motivation to act and the need for stimulation. Risk assessment of technical innovations is based on multiple criteria. Its implementation is related to the selection of experts. The selection of experts should be purposeful, hence the need to group them. The main goal of this paper was to group the experts according to their assessments. The intermediate goal was to check how individual personality traits of experts influence their perception of the validity of criteria. The article used cluster analysis as a method of grouping objects. The results presented in this paper relate to the analysis of six personality types: other-direction (1) and inner-direction (2), focus on success (3) and avoiding failures (4), need for strong sensations (5) and avoiding strong sensations (6). The obtained results indicate that an independent analysis of individual experts' characteristics does not allow for the unequivocal detection of differences between particular groups. An analysis consisting in combining individual features into pairs or triples is recommended as the next step. (original abstract)
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Content available remote Modele O-GARCH w ocenie ryzyka portfela inwestycji na rynku dnia następnego
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W niniejszym artykule wykorzystano wielowymiarowy model czynnikowy O-GARCH do estymacji ryzyka zmiany wartości portfela złożonego z kontraktów na energię elektryczną. Portfel został zbudowany z 24 kontraktów notowanych na Rynku Dnia Następnego (RDN) Towarowej Giełdy Energii S.A. (TGE) w okresie od 1.01.2009 do 31.03.2011 roku. (fragment tekstu)
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In this article O-GARCH model was used to portfolio risk estimation. The portfolio was build with 24 contracts on electric energy from Day Ahead Market from Electric Energy Exchange from 1.01.2009 to 31.03.2011. (original abstract)
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Content available remote Metodologia oceny ryzyka powodziowego gmin województwa łódzkiego
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Celem artykułu jest krytyczna ocena wykorzystywanych w Polsce metod oceny ryzyka powodziowego i porównanie wyników uzyskanych na ich podstawie. Analiza dotyczyła 21 gmin, które w dokumencie stworzonym w Wydziale Bezpieczeństwa i Zarządzania Kryzysowego Urzędu Wojewódzkiego w Łodzi zostały wskazane jako te, w których szkody związane z powodziami są najwyższe. Zgodnie z Dyrektywą Powodziową (2007) ryzyko powodziowe oznacza "kombinację prawdopodobieństwa wystąpienia powodzi i związanych z nią potencjalnych negatywnych konsekwencji dla zdrowia ludzkiego, środowiska, dziedzictwa kulturowego oraz działalności gospodarczej" (Dyrektywa Powodziowa 2007, art. 2 pkt 2). W artykule wykorzystano metodologię zastosowaną w Planie operacyjnym ochrony przed powodzią dla województwa łódzkiego (2013), planach zarządzania ryzykiem powodziowym (2015), a ich wyniki zestawiono z propozycją autorską. Stwierdzono, że największe rozbieżności w zakresie poziomu ryzyka powodziowego dotyczą pięciu gmin : Uniejowa, Działoszyna, Warty, Gidli oraz Sulejowa. Jest to związane z odmiennym podejściem do zagadnień ryzyka powodziowego. Niestety wciąż brakuje niezawodnej metody jego oceny, co znacząco ułatwiłoby prowadzenie odpowiedniej polityki w zakresie ochrony przeciwpowodziowej. (abstrakt oryginalny)
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The aim of the article is to analyze methods of flood risk assessment used in Poland and to compare the results obtained on the basis of these analyses. The analysis involves 21 communes (Polish: gmina), which in the document created by the Department of Security and Crisis Management of the Łódź Municipal Government were referred to as those in which the damage connected with flooding is the biggest. In accordance with the Flood Directive (2007), flood risk is a "combination of the probability of a flood event and potential adverse consequences for human health, the natural environment, and culturaland economic activity" (Flood Directive of 2007, Art. 2 Item 2). The article uses the methodology implemented in the Flood Control Operating Plan for the Łódź province (2013), Plans of Flood Risk Management (2015), and their results were compared with the author's interpretation. Research has shown that the biggest discrepancies concerning flood risk levels concern five communes: Uniejów, Działoszyn, Warta, Gidle and Sulejów. This is linked with a different attitude towards flood risk. Regrettably, there still exists no reliable method of risk assessment, which would greatly facilitate the pursuance of an adequate anti-flood policy. (original abstract)
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RM/RA CRAMM is a comprehensive risk assessment methodology for crisis management, which consists of identifying, analysing and assessing risks. Quantitative outputs serve as a basis for identifying risk management priorities, preparing preventive measures and responding to identified facts. The methodology is applicable to a wide range of risk types, natural risks, including fire risks, technology risks, criminal risks and other risks of a social nature. The RM/RA CRAMM methodology provides the basis for determining the real state of a given territory, allowing it to sort individual risks according to priorities. Risk assessment is the starting point for the reaction phase. By reacting, we mean preventive measures, including the allocation of Police units, Integrated rescue system units, their training, technical equipment and population awareness. The RM/RA CRAMM methodology provides the basis for determining the real situation in the given territory, allowing the individual risks to be sorted according to the priorities. Risk assessment is the starting point for the reaction phase.
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