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Ekonomista
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2008
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nr 6
707-727
EN
If Poland is to successfully face the challenges of globalization she should set out to build the society and the economy based on knowledge. The yardstick that measures advances in this field is constituted by the summary innovativeness index. Poland, however, among economies of UE occupies distant 23rd place. Poland's Development Strategy and related to it Operational Programs for 2007 -2013 stress the importance of the knowledge triangle (R&D, education, innovation). Appropriations directed towards R&D and human capital are to grow significantly, alas the effects in innovativeness are not expected to be impressive. Weaknesses in the supply of technology development supporting factors, meager demand on the part of small firms for innovation, attended by inefficient institutional infrastructure are the main causes of this situation. It seems indispensable to initiate work on long term development strategy that would focus on the national innovativeness system and on the activation of country's capital groups.
2
Content available remote The Role of Exchange Rate and Price Factors in Profitability Improving in Ukraine
100%
EN
The influences of nominal effective exchange rate of hryvnya and wholesale price index changes to value of profitability of the economy is defined by application of correlation-regression analysis. The recommendations about optimization of currency and price policy for improvement of economic efficiency of the economy of Ukraine are framed
EN
The paper explains how some discounting cash flows (DCF) methods can be adapted to analyses of macroeconomic trends, related e.g. to long-term changes in GDP. Average annual growth rate in GDP in Poland in 1996-2005 has been evaluated by use of the method analogous to that used for calculation of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in microeconomic analyses. Contrary to the generally used geometric mean, the proposed average growth rate (equivalent to that proposed earlier by I. Timofiejuk) takes into account the accumulated volume of the GDP generated over the whole analysed period, and not merely the ratio of the GDP volume in the last year to that of the base one. This prevents the bias favouring a potential choice of the 'delayed growth' trajectory, yielding identical growth index for the last year of the period as some other (uniform or accelerated) growth patterns, but characterised by a lower volume of the GDP accrued over that period. Calculation of current value of GDP flows for past or future multi-year periods has a sound economic meaning and can be a valuable tool of macroeconomic analyses and studies of growth policy options, adding new arguments for possible 'growth now' trajectories. It has been found out that the 'internal growth rate' of GDP in Poland amounted to 4.8% annually in 1996-2003, as compared to 4.0% geometric average rate for that period. The corresponding IRR rate for the years 1996-2005 has been estimated at 4.5-4.6%, against 4.2%-4.3% geometric average. Final section deals with comparative trends in GDP in Poland and other EU member states. Strong economic upturn in Poland in 2003-2004 has been a surprise to many experts. The growth has been faster than forecast by the European Commission and OECD. It is supposed to continue after the accession.
4
Content available remote Stylized Facts of Macroeconomics: the Polish Experience
100%
EN
The aim of this paper is to provide detailed analysis of quarterly frequency dynamics in macroeconomic aggregates in Poland. The following areas of concern have been included: the balanced growth theory, the comparison of empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid Philips curve specifications and the changes of macroeconomic stylized facts across the monetary regimes. Thorough analysis of those, as well as other facts, may contribute significantly to the development of macromodelling of Poland. Analysis of other facts has also been conducted, however due to limited space is not provided. The main result of the presented analysis is to give overwhelming evidence that the standard textbook stylized facts of macroeconomics present a reasonably good approximation to the behaviour of Polish economy, providing that this analysis takes into account that the Polish time series are contaminated with outliers.
EN
The main features of the economic development of the Slovak Republic in the year 2004 are as following: strengthening of the quite respectable dynamic growth from the previous years; maintaining macro-economic stability above its average level being achieved in the whole period of the Slovak economy transformation. Positive features which are reflected not only in the values of macro-economic development indicators, but also in the improving results of corporations' business activities, are not sufficiently projected into a social situation of population.
Ekonomista
|
2004
|
nr 5
665-674
EN
The problem of the way in which the development of financial markets influences economic growth constitutes one of the unresolved issues in the growth theory. This article addresses the question to what extent the results of research conducted on large samples of countries are corroborated by the study of economies of Central Europe (CEFTA), the developed and the remaining countries of EU during 1990–2000. The results obtained confirm the positive correlation between financial markets' development level and growth. In this respect the countries of CEFTA are similar to the remaining countries of EU, while they markedly differ from the highly developed countries of EU. It is concluded that the strength of influence of financial markets' development on growth depends on the level of economic development.
EN
The article analyzes the nature of human capital. The basic properties inherent in human capital were determined. Was investigated the underlying model of economic growth, taking into account human capital as a significant factor in economic growth in post-industrial society.
EN
The paper aims to identify the major components and trends in the Polish economic growth during the years 2001-2010. The analysis was based on decomposition of the GDP, using one of the neoclassical economic growth models, namely the Solow’s growth model. The source data was obtained from reports on the state of the economy published by the Ministry of Economy and data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The obtained analysis results show that during the years 2001-2010, the two major demand factors of Polish economic growth were: (i) growth of overall consumption, notably individual consumption, and (ii) increasing accumulation in the economy, dependent on the market situation. Among the supply determinants, particular importance was assigned to the rise in overall productivity of production factors and to fixed capital increase. The influence of labour resources varied depending on the socioeconomic situation of the country.
EN
This study empirically examines the relationship between broad money (M3) and economic growth according to different level of inflation. The impact is examined on the sample of 17 countries via threshold model for panel data. To ensure the robustness of the results, we apply several alternatives, including single and double threshold model. We conclude that an increase in money supply can be beneficial from the point of view of economic growth only for countries susceptible to maintain their inflation within an optimum interval, which is quantified by our model at around 2% level of inflation in the long run. Further the model estimation revealed that countries with inflation over 3.3% should avoid an increase in money supply as they risk negative effects on their output.
EN
The existence of poorly shaped institutional system leads to a reduction in the efficiency of economy functioning and leaves a gap for creation of informal institutions, such as the corrupt behaviour. Corruption has a negative impact on the economy and society, affecting directly other elements of the institutional system, such as: investment, education, trade policy, political stability, public finances and institutional environment. The progress made in the techniques of measuring corruption, has created the possibility to estimate its impact on growth factors. The results of these analyses indicate the indirect negative impact of corruption on economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Still some researchers notice also a neutral or positive impact of corruption on economy.
EN
The positive effect of the foreign direct investments (FDI) on the economic growth is a generally accepted fact in Central and Eastern Europe. The aim of this article is to analyse this axiom on the set of eight new EU member states. The analysis is based on correlation analysis and regression analysis of the FDI inflow on the GDP growth in the time period 1993 - 2003. The results of the correlation analysis are mixed - definite positive correlation can be noted only in three countries. The regression analysis brought controversial results. Regression tests show that the inflow of FDI failed to support economic growth and large FDI inflows are accompanied by slow GDP growth. The main factor behind these results is possibly the nature of the FDI inflows - more than 70 % of the total FDI inflows came through privatisation and the short-term positive effect of these FDI are limited.
EN
The more of the world economy globalize and the role of FDI increases. FDI have impact on development of regions and they decrease the differences between them. Although the number of FDI in Poland increases rapidly, the total value of them do not have enough influence on Polish economy growth. Considering the number of FDI, from early 90ís Poland has been a leader among other countries of Middle-East Europe. The main factor of the FDI flow was the transformation of economy system, what established law, economic and infrastructure condition. Membership in the OECD (1996) helped Poland in setting up all the procedures and law system optimal for foreign investors. The attractiveness of Poland increased under the influence of becoming a member of the NATO (1999) and the EU (2004).
EN
This text examines the post-crisis scenarios of economic growth. In order to explain the possible variants of future developments, it first provides an account of the crisis and describes the diverse types of state interventions used to control the crisis, and their immediate effects. Next the various possible scenarios of economic growth are considered, taking into account their probabilities, e.g. low likelihood of a consumer boom, possible increase in investments, but reasons as well for its possible decrease. Further on the article assesses the dynamics of the growth factors presented and the role of global co-operation in handling the crisis. The Author concludes that in order to avert a repeat financial meltdown, a mix of strategies and approaches needs to be adopted.
EN
The main aim of this paper is to characterize the circumstances under which high economic growth, that was achieved in 2005, was reflected in the different segments of the supply side of the economy. The paper analyzes the development of GDP from the perspective of its branches, trends in the development of the main branches, changes in the financial positions of corporations. The last part of the paper focuses on the dynamics of the Slovak foreign trade, especially the changes in the technological competitiveness of this sector.
EN
This contribution examines the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in 28 EU countries between 1993 and 2014. The paper aims to verify the first pioneering hypothesis which claims that there is a negative relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in relatively poorer countries and a positive relationship in relatively richer countries. A cluster analysis is used to divide the nations into individual groups. The Feder-Ram model and multiple regression analysis with modified variables are than estimated for all groups based on the cluster analysis. The findings of the regression analysis mainly verified the hypothesis and showed a significant positive relationship between defence spending and economic growth in the case of more resource- abundant countries and a significant negative relationship in the case of more resource-constrained countries. However, the Feder-Ram model showed statistically in significant effects of military expenditures on economic growth.
EN
Existing empirical research fails to provide robust support concerning the impact of the financial development on the economic growth, in the presence of the substantial variations across different time periods and the country groups. It is suggested that the variations in question are to be accounted for by a threshold effect, in support of which, it seems to have been found the modest empirical evidence. Panel-data analysis for a set of 32 developing and developed countries for the period of 1990 - 2001 indicates a threshold level of financial development, with the implication that the positive effects fail to materialize at the relatively lower stages of financial development. Moreover, financial development has actually got a negative impact on GDP per capita, unless it exceeds the threshold level.
EN
The main objective of this study was focused on the analysis of long-term relations among wages, prices and output during the systemic transformation in Poland. Monthly data covering the entire period of 1993-2002 were used. The obtained results indicate that labour productivity and the state of the labour market were determining the average wages. Inflation is mainly dependent on the changes in wages, labour productivity and prices of imported goods. The rate of economic growth was predominantly influenced by capital/labour ratio, inflow of foreign direct investments and the speed of privatization, which also accelerates organizational change.
EN
The paper presents a stylized simulation mini-model of economic growth. It can be regarded a mini-replica of large (more than 200 equations) long-term macroeconometric model W8D-2002 of the Polish economy. Its parameters are calibrated being based either on results of estimation of parameters of particular equations or on statistical data from the base year 2000. The model generates, on the one hand the potential GDP. Its rate of growth is related to the gross investment in real capital/GDP share as well as to investment in knowledge capital represented by the R&D and educational expenditures /GDP shares. The latter represent the impact of TFP increase on economic growth. The education expenditures adjusted for the increase of expenditures on university education are transformed into the investment in human capital. They enter the extended Cobb-Douglas production function.The empirical counterpart shows the likely paths of growth of the potential of the Polish economy, assuming correlated changes in the above production factors. In the horizon of 20 years the investment shares are moved upwards yielding rising rates of growth of potential GDP. The mini-model generates, on the other hand, following the Harrod-Domar tradition - the effective GDP. The growth of final domestic demand depends on investment in fixed capital growth rates deducted from assumed investment/GDP shares. In extended version of the model the total investment is defined including also investment in R&D and human capital. The consumption is obtained using simple multiplier. The second important variable is exports, which rates of growth are exogenous, wheares imports are endogenously determined. Empirical part shows the results of calculations of effective GDP, given the assumed shares of investment in GDP and a spectrum of exports rates of growth. It makes it possible to show under which rates of growth of exports the rates of potential and effective GDP coincide. It allows also to find the rates of export growth that make possible to respectively decline the initial output gap.
EN
The article presents a discussion on the Japanese economic model and chances to use it as an example for the countries of the South Eastern Asia. The social and economic system of Japan constituted, throughout the second part of the 20th century, an economic model of high efficiency and economic perfection. Therefore, after World War II the Japanese economic model became a point of reference for many developing countries in the South East Asia. However, stagnation in the Japanese economy provoked doubts concerning rightness of the strategy. In spite of that, the Japanese economic model can still serve as a pattern of development for the countries in South East Asia. With the reference to the social and economic policy; Japan has developed a system of national health insurance and has considerably shortened working hours. Expenses on environmental protection and on improvement in living conditions in large cities have been radically increased. Consequently, despite a decrease in the dynamics of economic growth and income the standard of living in Japan has definitely improved.
EN
The aim of this paper is an empirical analysis of the convergence process in the years 1993-2008 and the impact of economic growth on income distribution in selected European Union countries. Considering this fact one can state that research was conducted from the perspective of EU citizens. The crucial hypothesis of this paper is statement that convergence is differently perceived in terms of entire economies, and gives a different picture from the perspective of the single citizen of the selected country. The analysis was carried out in several stages. Initially, the authors referred to the classical convergence hypotheses (unconditional 'beta' and 'sigma' convergence) within the EU-27, then the same assumptions were examined taking into account population - weighted indicators. However, the main aim of research undertaken in this study was to investigate the individual within - country distribution of income for the initial and final period, which allowed to answer the question whether faster growth of the 'new EU' was accompanied by reduction of inequalities within analyzed economic systems.
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