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1 2007

1 Belka M.

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Enlargement of the European Monetary Union and the Perspectives of Economic Development in Poland

100%

Belka M.

Ekonomista

2007

nr 6

873-890

Nowadays Poland possesses a comparative advantage arising from relatively lower production costs. However, it is apparent, that this advantage is fading away. The sources of the process lie, among others, in Poland's exposure to manufactures from beyond the European Union, from countries that are developing more dynamically than Poland. This process is unavoidable. Moreover, our lower-cost advantage is diminishing as a result of appreciation pressure which the zloty is permanently exposed to. Also high inflation pressure can boost this process. Therefore it is clear that Poland is facing a race against time: not only has it to slow down the loss of the above advantage, but it also has to create new advantages as quickly as possible. Consequently, one of the objectives of macroeconomic policy should be to accelerate Polish accession to the European Monetary Union. Failure to do so would result in further strengthening of the zloty and in its volatility that impair operations of Polish companies (especially small and mid-size which can not afford to hedge against exchange rate risks). Joining the EMU would give Poland extra time to build a modern economy, prevent the zloty's further appreciation and, as a result, reduce ongoing falling relatively-lower-costs competitive advantage.