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EN
The research was to simulate the effects of milk quota abolition for the Polish dairy producers, in the context of regional differentiation. The CAPRI partial equilibrium model (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) was used to carry out an analysis of the impact of milk quota regime changes on the agri-food sector. The model allows to examine the impact of agricultural policy changes on the agricultural sector across the European Union at the national and regional level. Two scenarios of intervention on the milk market have been analysed. Under the first scenario abolition of the milk quota beyond 2015 is assumed according to the decision of the EU Commission, while the second scenario provides for its continuation. The simulation results prove that the milk production, yield and number of animals at the national level would be similar irrespective of the scenario. However, discrepancies between the scenarios in particular regions would be significant. Abolition of milk quota may be conducive to a consolidation of the existing production structures and strengthening of production polarization. Thus, the sector efficiency would improve at the national level while the gaps in milk production sector development would widen among the regions. Continuation of the milk quota scheme would result in a relatively faster production growth in the currently less developed regions than in those with higher milk production. Therefore, milk quota scheme is conducive to equalisation of production conditions at the national level.
EN
The conducted analyses reveal that the dairy industry has a major impact on the functioning of agriculture and the other sectors of the national economy. Production and marketing of dairy products bring considerable economic benefits, hence it is vital to create good conditions for the development and efficient operation of the dairy industry in the Podlaskie region.
EN
The paper provides an analysis of the implications of dairy policy reform on the agricultural market in the EU and in individual Member States. Both a theoretical study of the production control programme and model-based quantitative simulation of the effects of milk quota system abolition are presented in the paper. The results obtained in empirical analysis indicate that gradual expansion of milk quotas and elimination thereof in the end lead to market conditions changes which affect farmer's decisions and regional distribution of production in the EU. According to simulation results, EU milk production would increase by 4.8% causing a decrease of milk prices by around 7% as a result of milk quota abolition. The relatively slight scale of these changes leads to the conclusion that external factors concerning world situation are more important for the future EU milk market development than the changes in the milk quota system. Consumers are the main beneficiaries of the reform. They would benefit from declining prices of dairy products. According to the CAPRI model simulations, overall loss of agricultural incomes in the EU due to milk quota abolition could total 2.0%, including losses of dairy farmers' incomes - 5.8%.
EN
The diacylglycerol o-acyltransferase 1 gene (DGAT1) was investigated in Polish Black-and-White cattle. The frequency of the K allele was 0.60, 0.68 and 0.48 for AI sires (n = 150), young bulls (n = 139) and cows (n = 213), respectively. The method of selective genotyping for identification of the quantitative trait nucleotide was verified through identification of DGAT1 effect on milk production traits. Daughters of six heterozygous bulls were selectively genotyped based on their milk traits. The genotypic frequencies differed between high and low yield groups representing milk and fat contents. The Kruskal-Wallis test revealed a highly significant effect of DGAT1 K232A in cows with extremely low fat content and a significant effect in cows with extremely high protein content of milk. No significant effect of AI sires' genotypes on their breeding value was found.
EN
The study presents changes in cows breeding and milk production in 1990-2010 with distinction of the period of intense system changes, and pre-accession and post-accession periods. The analysis was based on CSO data, in particular on data from Agricultural Census of 1996, 2002 and 2010. The analysis indicates that in this period there was a considerable decrease in the number of farms keeping cows, and in the number of cows. However, the dynamics of these processes was greatly varied in certain years, as well as significantly regionally diversified. Within the period of intense system changes (1990-1996), the rapid yield compression in cows breeding, and liquidation of state agricultural farms revealed not only decrease in the number of farms keeping cows and in the number of cow, but also deconcentration in cows breeding and recourse in improvement of herd of cows. In the pre-accession period (1996-2004), at the time of decrease, in the number of farms keeping cows and in the number of cows, the process of concentration and stabilisation was gradually shaped. The intensifying competition on the milk market and increasing requirements of milk processing plants are the driving force for these processes. In the post-accession period (due to improvement of profitability of milk production and farms' income) the above-mentioned processes were noticeably intensified. Wielkopolskie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie Voivodeships (with good agrarian structure and good agricultural condition) gradually join the central-eastern region, leading in the development of cows breeding and milk production. The recourse region, so far covering three South Eastern voivodeships, is broadening now covering Lubelskie Voivodeship (also characterised with fragmented agrarian structure). At the same time, there is an improvement trend in cows breeding and milk production in the Western and Northern region, i.e. in the so-called post-state farm region. Such improvement is based on the dynamic development of cows breeding and milk production in large farms keeping great herds of cows.
EN
The objective of the study was to assess the economics effects of the dairy policy reform sanctioned by CAP Health Check on the agricultural market in Poland. The paper presents a theoretical study of the production control program as well as a model based quantitative analysis of the implications of the reform on the agricultural markets. The partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD was used for simulation. The results obtained indicate that the expansion and subsequently the elimination of milk quota system lead to the growth of milk production and consumption in Poland which confirms the hypothesis derived from theoretical study. As a consequence, the growth of the production of most of dairy products and the decrease of their prices is expected. As the growth of dairy consumption is smaller than the growth of milk production the increase of self-sufficiency in the dairy market is predicted. The comparison of the scale of price adjustment resulting from the dairy reform to the market price changes observed recently leads to the conclusion that global market factors will probably be more important for the future development of milk production and prices in Poland than the milk quota abolition. Nevertheless, the reform constitutes a significant change in business conditions for producers and consumers of milk and dairy products. As a consequence, milk production will become more market based, as far as market prices, production costs and milk yields are concerned. Simulation results from the AGMEMOD model confirm the opinion brought by other authors that the abolition of milk quotas will lead to the decline of dairy farmer income. The main beneficiaries of the reform would become the consumers who could take advantage of the decline in prices of the dairy products.
EN
The subject of the paper is the process of structural changes in cow farming and milk production in Poland in 1990-2010, with special emphasis on the period of intensive systemic transformation, as well as on the pre-accession and post-accession periods. The presented analysis is based on the data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), especially those provided by Agricultural Censuses. The results of the analysis showed that there occurred a significant decrease in the number of agricultural holdings with cows as well as in the number of cows in the examined period. However, the dynamics of such processes differed substantially in individual years. In the period of intensive systemic transformation (1990-1995) the decrease in the number of cows was larger than the decrease in the number of holdings with cows. In this period, the process of deconcentration in cow farming and regression in the improvement of cow herds became observable. Starting from the mid 1990s the decline in the number of holdings is much faster than the decline in the number of cows. Cow farming is moving to holdings with larger agrarian area. In the structure of the domestic herd, the share of herds consisting of 10 cows and more is clearly increasing. The process of concentration and specialization becomes visible. The size of average herd increases from 2.6 cows to 5.9 cows. A clear improvement occurs in terms of modernization of cow farming, milk production and quality of cow herds, which results in a higher milk yield and higher quality of milk. These processes are stimulated by intensifying competition on the milk market and growing requirements from milk processing plants. However, the level of specialization and concentration of cow farming in Poland is still low, and average milking capacity continues to be well below that recorded in the EU countries against which Poland competes on the milk market. In the coming years there will be dual-development of holdings that keep cows. Market holdings will further specialize and concentrate on cow farming, which will lead to a fast decrease in the proportion of holdings that have 20 or fewer cows. On the other hand, non-market farms, with small cow herds, will abandon such production or reduce it to the level necessary to satisfy their own needs. The rate of fall in the number of such holdings will be determined by cultural and demographic conditions rather than the economic ones.
EN
The profitability of milk production is determined by the production volume on a farm, pricing, and incurred costs. The production volume directly corresponds to the milk-yield level of cows and herd size. These factors are characterised by a positive interrelation. The study reveals that an increase in the milk yield of cows stimulates income growth and, despite the higher costs of animal upkeep, it is connected with a more efficient usage of the workforce. Higher costs stem primarily from the introduction of highly-productive (genetically potent) specimens into the herd, and higher production intensity. The study revealed that the improvement in the milk yield of cows was related to a considerably larger proportion of purchased concentrate feeds in the animals’ feed ration, with a marked predomination of concentrates and compound feeds. In bulk feed, on the other hand, the highest proportion comprised silage and hay silage. Such feed facilitated an improvement in cow milk yield and also had a positive impact on milk production profitability. The growing volume of milk produced on a farm was accompanied by an increase in its price. As a consequence, the economic performance of milk production in holdings comprising fairly large herds of cows (around 30 cows) of high milk yield (approximately 7000 litres) was significantly more favourable than that of holdings with smaller herds and lower milk yield.
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