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Content available remote MONETARY POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF 'NAIRU' FLATTENING
100%
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2009
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tom 4
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nr 1
95-105
EN
The last decades represent a period of global economy fast transformation, which is reflected in the real life and leads to changes in relations between the situation in the labour market and the inflation processes. Those changes are frequently referred to as 'NAIRU' flattening. It can be expected that it will bring important consequences for the process of national monetary policy development in individual countries. The aim of the paper is to present analysis of the influence of NAIRU flattening on the effectiveness of the national monetary policy and effectiveness of its tools.
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2012
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nr 879
81-91
EN
The Teutonic Order, as an institution acting both in the sacrum and profane spheres, permanently influenced the economic development not only of Western Europe, where its centers were located, but also and even more importantly Prussian territory, and by virtue of the trade the knights carried out, the whole of Europe. The fiscal and monetary policy of the Teutonic Order was treated instrumentally by the organisation’s authorities. It helped the Order to achieve its primary goals, namely the power of community and the wealth that grew out of it. A stable currency and adapting of the tax system to the prevailing socio-economic conditions were not favourable enough circumstances for the Order to make the reforms required to not only progress but also ensure the stable functioning of the body politic. The worsened economic situation, deteriorating at the hands of war, revealed negligence in handling monetary stability and the already too high tax burden increased recession, which contributed to the fall of the Order and the secularisation of the state. The efficient rule of the monastic state observed until the 14th century was complemented by equally efficient monetary and tax policy, and benefited the order in that it induced general economic growth in Prussia. However, the lack of suitable tax reforms and inappropriate measures in the monetary sphere by depreciation and deterioration of money in the 15th and 16th centuries led to the gradual fall of the monastic state.
EN
Monetary base is one of these economical categories which play the particular role not only in monetary policy but also in whole economy. The main aim of the article was to present changes and structure of monetary base in Poland, as well as to define causes of these changes. In analyzed period (2001-2007) volume of the monetary base systematically increased (+53,9 billion PLN). Financial reserve accrual's variations were caused by unequal level of debt of household and enterprises, foreign assets' influx into Poland, and most of all operations of the central bank.
EN
The article analyses the relation between investments and share market profitability. The research covered the investment effect in the USA and other countries. It measured the monetary policy influence on stock market index Standard & Poors' return rate. The research included also the degree of economy globalisation in a given country to explain the mechanism combining market share values and future investment tendencies in the mature and emerging economies. The researchers compared direct and indirect investment effect in chosen countries. The research proves that FED expansive monetary policy in a year T positively influences and the restrictive one negatively influences share market in the same year. The expansive policy leads also to the much higher investments next year than the restrictive one. Between the stock market index rate in a given year and real investment changes in the next year there is a positive correlation. The value of this relation reflects the strength of investment effect. Its importance describes the indicator measuring the relation between emission revenues and investment expenditure. The characteristic feature of emerging markets is that their share markets predict especially future domestic investment activities. Share market is more effective as a transmission channel than traditional rate. It is visible in all the mature markets. The investment effect can be observed also in the relation between stock exchange index and accompanying changes of business optimism.
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2006
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nr 2
145-168
EN
The prevailing theoretical paradigm stipulating that demand for money negatively depends on nominal interest rate is in sharp contradiction with real monetary policy. It also leads to inconsistencies. The choice of the nominal rate of interest as the argument of money demand function determines the results of some known models - should they link demand for money to the real interest rate, the results would be different. These observations lead to reconsideration of the established theoretical reasoning concerning the motifs of monetary policies. Following these considerations a new paradigm linking interest rate and the demand for money is offered. The inference is that it is the real interest rate that plays crucial role in the determination of demand for money and that this relation is quite complex.
EN
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to determine the causes of the financial crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2009. Second, the author gives an answer to the question of what systemic changes should be introduced to avoid a similar scenario in future. To pinpoint the causes of the crisis, a method based on verification of scientific hypotheses is used. The process of verification allows one to assert that the subprime crisis which started in the USA was caused by both introduction of the National Homeownership Strategy in 1993 and too low interest rates. As for the second problem, a good solution can be the introduction of a new monetary policy instrument. Central bank's new interest rate should determine a minimum level of mortgage loans regardless of the price of money on the interbank market.
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2006
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nr 2
169-183
EN
The basic question posed in the article pertains the monetary policy: should it be discretional in character or should it rely on some sound rules? The author discusses certain decision making rules (active and passive as well as instrumental and goal oriented) with the reference to models suggested by Taylor and Svensson and postulates that the potential output in these models be derived on the basis of production generated by full employment and not on the long term trend. Such a change would help the formulation of full employment policies. It is stressed that monetary policy, during the process of integration with the EU, should distinguish itself by a select character, since the standard rules for setting targets and implementing monetary policy decisions do not take the adjustment conditions into account. In effect of present day practice interest rates are set at too high levels. The article is concluded with the assessment of the results of high interest rates' policies as well as with the conclusions that address the mechanism of decision making.
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2008
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nr 3
329-355
EN
The article contains the results of theoretical and empirical analysis of approaches and hypotheses that concern costs and benefits resulting from Poland's accession to the eurozone. Comparative analysis indicates that the bottom line results of Poland joining the Economic and Currency Union should be - in the longer run - advantageous. The path leading Poland to eurozone seems to be difficult because the country does not meet nominal and real convergence criteria. The fundamental problem is attributable to the need of deep reformulation of structural policy: modernization of state institutions and of the economy, improvements in policy mix are the main points. Poland should be well prepared and 'ripe' to benefit from opportunities ensuing from integration. Voluntary or too early resignation from the ability to conduct own monetary and exchange policies would not safeguard the stability of macroeconomic policy under conditions of contemporary challenges facing the world economy. The article is concluded with the statement that the integration with the monetary union should be desirable and, in the overall account, will bring benefits for Poland.
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2008
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nr 3(22)
52-83
EN
The aim of the article is to present the relationship between the overall economic situation and the situation on the financial markets, and the consequences for the financial markets arising from it. First of all, the concept of financial instability is explained and main theories accounting for its origins are discussed. On the basis of that theoretical reflection, the author outlines the observed relation between the overall economic situation and the state of financial markets. Finally, he describes problems which economic authorities face in case of speculation bubbles' appearance.
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2005
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nr 5
569-594
EN
The author critically analyzes monetary policy pursued during the recent years by the Central Bank of Poland and poses a question whether the parliamentary bill on the National Bank of Poland correctly indicates its objectives. In particular, the issue whether the single objective, viz. the currency stability, is not too narrowly formulated? The article indicates that the open market policy in actual fact causes deep dis-equilibrium on the monetary market and identifies its effects which manifest themselves in high over-liquidity and shortage of loan potential as well as in the transfer abroad of sizeable funds in the form of foreign assets. The conclusion is that the stability of the currency, as the objective - from the macroeconomic point of view - was not rational, due to its high cost.
EN
The paper presents the monetary policy and the principles of its formulating in the EU and the euro zone with the special emphasis on decision-making process in the commonwealth issues performed by European Central Bank (ECB). In order to enable the ECB to function properly it has been provided with a lot of independence which falls into 4 categories: institutional, personal, financial and functional. The organizational structure of the ECB is composed of: the Governing Council - the highest managerial body, the Executive Board the executive body and the General Council. Each of the above mentioned bodies has its own procedures of decision making, methods of voting relevant to their tasks and competence. The major task of the ECB together with the central banks of the EU members states of which ECB is composed is to keep prices stable. Summing up, the procedures of action used by ECB have been shaped in such a way which prevents political authorities from putting any pressure on the Bank and enable the Bank to make decisions effectively. At the same time, the decision making process concerning the monetary policy has been centralized in ECB whereas the executive functions have been decentralized on the level of national banks.
EN
The aim of the paper is to examine the experiences of the euro zone functioning over the last few years. The authoress is considering the importance and effectiveness of using the convergence criteria in preparing the EU countries for participation in the euro zone.She then moves on to institutional and legal solutions concerning a single monetary policy in the euro zone and decentralized budget policy of the member states. In particular, she analyses the practical functioning of solutions disciplining a budget policy as included in the Pact of Stability and Rise. The conducted research indicates that the public finance regulations have not been able to efficiently reduce too high budget deficits. The new member states of the EU preparing for entering the euro zone should immediately start the reform of their public finance which would enable them to reduce the risk of too high budget deficits that might arise after replacing their national currencies with the euro.
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2010
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nr 3
319-343
EN
The aim of the paper is to analyze the possibilities of overcoming the asymmetric shocks under fully fixed and fully floating exchange rate regimes, taking into consideration increasing financial integration which results in mounting capital flows. The analysis is based on the use of the Mundell-Fleming model within the framework of the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. The main conclusion is that (under the assumption that changes of nominal market interest rate are the only factor influencing the scale ant magnitude of capital flows) members of a currency union should offset negative results of the asymmetric shock with the use of instruments of fiscal policy. This appears to be more effective than monetary policy instruments. Hence, in analyzing the group of countries that want to establish a currency union or already have become members of such union, costs of the loss of monetary policy autonomy need not be related to benefits from preserving the autonomy. What should be taken into account is the quality of fiscal policy of these countries. Resignation from the autonomy of monetary policy would be a rash step only if the countries concerned are not prepared to conduct coordinated, disciplined and transparent fiscal policy.
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2012
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nr 877
25-35
EN
The aim of the article is to present the impact of monetary policy on chosen variables characterising the real and nominal side of the economy. The author first describes the idea of the natural rate of interest, which can be defined as the rate of real interest that stabilises inflation. This approach is extremely important for central banks seeking to implement a direct inflation targeting strategy. Using a money market equilibrium model and term structure of interest rates, the author establishes that if the real interest rate effect occurring in the short term is stronger than the effect of increased inflation expectations then the increase in money supply will reduce the level of the short-term nominal interest rate. However, in the long term the nominal interest rate will increase due to inflation expectations.
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