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The article analyses the potential risks related to the stability test, which zloty will undergo after entering the ERM II. The cost of abandoning the floating exchange rate will, in the case of Poland, be relatively low. Nonetheless, the ERM II stability test will bring in the risks, which were avoided under the floating exchange regime. The reintroduction of the fluctuation band may create a target for potential speculative attack. The experiences of former accession countries, however, indicate that markets do not launch a speculative attack once they trust that a country in question is able to maintain its external and interal equilibrium. The experiences of the former accession countries also reveal that the important issue is to enter the euro zone with the market exchange rate, which is close to a long-term equilibrium rate Professor Andrzej
The article analyses how the functioning of the currency board system affects the prospects of joining the euro zone by the Baltic countries. Not long ago, it was expected that for the Baltic states the currency board system would be a convenient shortcut to the euro zone. Two years ago, such a scenario was perceived as almost certain. At present accession of the Baltic states to the euro zone seems very remote and uncertain. The main reason for this dramatic change was the materialisation of risks, which are inherent to the currency board system. Above all, the system is pro-cyclical. The illustration is the worrisome feedback, between the credit boom and the decrease in real interest rates. The latter were pushed by the inflation into the negative level. The recent problem of the Baltic countries is not when to join the euro zone but how to avoid a financial crisis, which might be triggered by the credit boom and rapidly growing foreign indebtedness.
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