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1
Content available remote The equable maintenance strategy
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Method of control of the risk of failure of the objects to which preventive renewal method is applied under the zero option maintenance strategy.
EN
The areas of risk may be our great allies m business. Very often these limits exist only in our heads- they don't have a lot in common with reality and actually they may become the main lever in our development. Successful Social Dialogue is a great tool of risk management, Lets us use occuring chances and avoid danger in requiring economic and social milieu. To summarize, there's no need to be afraid of taking risk, but get ready, observe our changing environment and use occuring chances.
EN
In the article the author has presented the methodology of assessment of market risk connected with investing in all sorts of financial instruments such as: shares, bonds and other derivatives, e.g. RiskGrade (RG). The measure has been introduced by RiskMetrics. The article presents the application of RiskGrades methodology while choosing the optimum investment portfolio for a Polish investor who invests in shares in the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Moreover, some other risk measures have been discussed which describe the efficiency of the optimum financial portfolio.
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Content available Risk Management in Industrial Companies
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Nowadays, in the rapidly changing world, a company’s business operations require efficiency and decisiveness. However, every form of operations is connected with certain risk, a phenomenon that is common in everyone’s everyday life, as well as in every business activity. That is why it is so important to apply appropriate management methods to calculate potential profits and losses. The article presents an overview of risk management methods for the needs of large industrial companies. The overview was based on the example of a steel mill.
PL
Ryzyko, niepewność, niewiedza i pewność są obiektywnymi stanami związanymi z podejmowaniem decyzji w każdej działalności gospodarczej. Działania, w rolnictwie z reguły są obarczone wysokim ryzykiem. Wynika to z biologicznego charakteru wytwarzania, długiego cyklu produkcyjnego, funkcjonowania gospodarstw w warunkach gospodarki rynkowej oraz niskiego poziomu wiedzy rolników o zarządzaniu gospodarstwem rolnym. Znaczenie tych czynników produkcji jest o wiele większe niż w innych działach gospodarki narodowej. Według autorów artykułu do podejmowania trafnych decyzji konieczne było podjęcie próby syntezy poszczególnych pojęć, zarówno z punktu widzenia teorii jak i praktyki zarządzania gospodarstwem rolnym. Dotyczy to zwłaszcza pojęć ryzyko i niepewność, które przez wielu autorów często są utożsamiane i używane zamiennie. Sytuacja decyzyjna w gospodarstwie rolnym obarczona jest wysoką niepewnością i ryzykiem z powodu niepełnej i niepewnej informacji. Zdaniem autorów, najtrafniejsza jest definicja P. Sienkiewicza, że niepewność jest kategorią poznawczą, intelektualną, natomiast ryzyko mieści się na płaszczyźnie wolicjonalnej. Trzeba także zgodzić się z tezą. Heady E.0, że ryzyko poznane i skwantyflkowane przestaje być źródłem zagrożeń.
EN
In the article is introduced a process of making a decision in conditions of the uncertainty and risk in an agriculture household. There is an analysis in sequence of: -specificity of the agricultural production, -sources of the uncertainty and risks in the agriculture in the division into external and internal factors, -the attempt of the definition of the risk and uncertainty in the light of world litera ture, -attitude of farmers to the risk.
PL
Współcześnie każda innowacja, a innowacja oparta na wiedzy w szczególności, powstaje i jest wdrażana pod silną presją niepewności powodzenia. Znajomość źródeł możliwych zagrożeń, profesjonalizm w zarządzaniu, a nade wszystko kontrola ryzyka wynikającego z trafności samej innowacji oraz turbulentnego otoczenia, może decydować o jej powodzeniu.
EN
Currently every innovation, but in particularly innovation based on knowledge, comes into being and is practical applicated under strong pressure of the uncertainty of the succes. A knowledge of the sources of the possible hazards, professonalism of the menagement, but in particularly checking of the risk being a hit of the innovation and turbulent environment, can decide about its success.
EN
In this paper a closer look at risk management issues at the company level was taken. Occurring threads for company functioning and the action methods for controlling the threats were presented. In the next part of paper ways of physical and financial risk control and criteria of company preventive activity in order to eliminate/ minimize the threads were presented. Than ways of risk financing by company were presented.
EN
The article attempts to create an early warning system for the food manufacturing sector. Nearly 1,600 companies have been examined within this sector – including 118 bankrupt companies. The author focuses on the evaluation of integrated models and selection of financial indicators. These models, which classified companies in the sector in the best way, were selected. Apart from the selection of financial indicators, these ratios, which were characterized by predictive and discriminatory abilities, were chosen.
EN
Nanotechnology is a very vast field which includes a range of technologies at the nano scale, such as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, genomics, neuroscience, robotics and information technologies. Nanotechnology is the latest technological innovation in global debates on risk regulation and international cooperation. Regulatory bodies have started dealing with the potential risks posed by nanoparticles. Since 2004 the UE has been developing a regulatory policy to tighten control and to improve regulatory adequacy and knowledge of nanotechnology risks. Currently, specific provisions on nanomaterials have been introduced for biocides, cosmetics, food additives, food labelling and materials in contact with foodstuff. The statement that nanotechnologies do inevitably imply ethical questions. The main problems are public trust, potential risks, issues of environmental impact, transparency of information, responsible nanosciences and nanotechnologies research. The aim of this article is to analysis the main problems regulating nanotechnology and some aspects of ethics.
EN
Psychological resilience is a relatively new phenomenon, recently considered for the development of children of alcoholics. In contrast to traditional approaches to adaptation processes of children with a risk of pathology of the concept of resilience focuses on the positive effects of development in children, in whom (because of parental alcoholism) can be expected deficits or pathological symptoms. This review article, presents an analysis of the current state of knowledge and empirical research in the containment area and determinants of the phenomenon of resilience in the population of children of alcoholics.
EN
The relevance to decision research of recent advances in the philosophy of social science is considered. The critical realism of Roy Bhaskar argues for the identification of contextually contingent explanatory mechanisms at multiple levels based on concepts grounded in intersubjectively shared reality. Using examples from the author’s and other’s research on the psychology of decisions involving risk and uncertainty, this paper explores the implications of taking a critical realist approach. It is argued that critical realism has the potential to advance and unify disparate experimental and naturalistic lines of research. Furthermore, a diverse range of experimental, process-tracing and observational methods can play important complementary roles in developing fruitful critical realist explanations of decisions involving risk and uncertainty.
EN
This paper deals with the administrative and legal elements of both the establishing and the implementation of risk management mechanisms in public administration, as well as indicating how important this process is for supporting the proper functioning of each entity in the public finance sector. At the same time, it highlights the need to constantly update the applicable formula of organisational management, especially in terms of efficiency, effectiveness and optimisation of the means to improve the quality of public services provided. The constantly growing awareness of an entity’s management regarding threats to accomplishing set objectives can also be observed. Therefore, it becomes necessary to develop risk management mechanisms limiting the adverse impact of various factors on proper task implementation.
EN
This paper determines whether the VaR estimation is influenced by conditional distribution of return rates (normal, t-student, GED) and attempts to choose the model which best estimates VaR on a selected example. We considered logarithmic return rates for the WIG-20 index from 1999-2011. Then, on their basis we estimates various types of ARIMA-GARCH (1,1) models. Applying relevant models we calculated VaR for the long and short position. The differences between the models were settled on the basis of the Kupiec test.
14
Content available Źródła ryzyka modeli bankructwa przedsiębiorstw.
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EN
This study aims at identifying sources of risks for corporate bankruptcy models. The applied research method includes the presentation of conditions for the bankruptcy phenomenon to occur in an unstable economy, the analysis of differentiation between the predictive capability of early warning models, and the recognition of risks related to these models. Three major types of risks of corporate bankruptcy models have been distinguished. Firstly, the risks of these models arise from the uncertainty of reliability of financial statements, inter alia, interfering with information, and difficulties in measurement of some financial categories. Secondly, the risk arises from the constraints related to the design of these models, inter alia, being the adopted assumptions, sampling and bankruptcy predictors. Thirdly, the risk of models pertains to the conditions of their practical applications, inter alia, there are cases of their limited comprehensibility, a high volatility of business environment, and the impact of non-conventional bankruptcy factors.
EN
The purpose of this article is to analyze the classical assumption that in the absence of suf-ficient information in the market transaction there is a problem of asymmetry. In addition it verified the assumption that you understand the transaction allows the Company to take further decisions – less risky. In the presented article first defines the concepts of asymmetric infor-mation and a description of the model pryncypał-agent. Then pointed out the methodology of the experiment and describes the test result. The final part of the article presents the conclu-sions. The study was based on economic experiment carried out on a random sample of stu-dents of third degree at the Faculty of Economics and Management in Szczecin. Results of this study demonstrated the occurrence of the phenomenon of information asymmetry. It confirmed the situation in which one party had more information than the other to a diverse range, which resulted in a favorable decision making.
16
Content available The Analysis of Risks to Personal Data Security
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Article 32 of the EU General Data Protection Regulation imposes the obligation to implement appropriate safeguards to protect personal data. It states that the application of adequate measures is to be preceded by a risk analysis and evaluation. In the current paper, as the main risk factors, probability and consequences were assumed that take into account the basic attributes of information, i.e. confidentiality, integrity and availability. Next, a risk analysis methodology based on the risk matrix is proposed. The issue discussed in the publication is currently valid and still requires careful analysis in order to develop universal standards aimed at establishing certification mechanisms as well as quality labels and markings in terms of personal data protection.
17
Content available Method of auditing in conditions of martial law
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In the article there are considered methodical recommendations on the actions of auditors uring martial law. They relate to such stages of the audit as the preparatory phase, the planning phase, the task implementation and the final phase. The preparatory stage requires the identification of the client and the conclusion of an audit agreement. Under martial law, new risks are emerging, systematized by the authors and related to the identification of persons involved in terrorist activities and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The systematization of risks and the use of IT technologies to identify and verify the client allows auditors, as specially designated entities of primary financial monitoring, to identify and freeze the assets of such persons in a timely manner and stop providing any services. At the client acceptance and assignment stage, auditors assess ethical threats. As a result, a working paper has been developed to assess ethical threats in the light of martial law. At the planning stage, special attention should be paid to reviewing risks, namely how military aggression affects the continuity of any business. Clarification of risk factors for termination allows you to plan audit procedures to gather audit evidence and further determine the auditor's opinion on continuity (opinion with an explanatory paragraph, opinion with a reservation, negative opinion, disclaimer of opinion). One of the effective procedures for collecting audit evidence at the stage of the task is inventory.
PL
Artykuł prezentuje sposoby identyfikacji podstawowych wielkości kryte-riów, jakie winny być uwzględniane przy poszukiwaniu optymalnych działań związanych z ochroną przeciwpowodziową. Znacząca część tego artykułu dotyczy określania wartości ryzyka dla przyjętych wariantów ochrony przeciwpowodziowej. Przykład analizy wielokryterialnej został wykonany na podstawie rzeczywistych danych dla doliny rzeki Raby poniżej zbiornika Dobczyce.
EN
The paper presents the ways for identification of basic values of criteria which should be taken into consideration while looking for optimum actions connected with flood protection. The considerable part of the paper deals with determination of the risk value connected with the accepted variants of flood protection. An example of multi-criterial analysis based on actual data has been made for the Raba river valley below the Dobczyce reservoir.
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The paper concentrates on aspects of real estate investment risk management and highlights risk reduction abilities of diversified investment portfolio. The core problem of the paper is the investment decision making under risk which can arise due to instable market conditions and ever changing levels of prices. Throughout the investigation of this problem could be useful, in both practical and theoretical areas, to provide an insight of riskiness of investment possibilities in Western and Eastern Europe as well as to provide material for further theoretical investigations. The main goal of this work is to discuss the nature of real estate investment risks and to form real estate investment portfolio with application to European markets in order to find an investment solution according to risk. Altogether with mean-variance portfolio scheme, the idea of adequate for stochastic nature of investment efficiency portfolio is used in constructing corresponding three-investment portfolio sets helping to select optimal ones for different investors.
EN
The paper deals with the selected aspects of vulnerability assessment of systems. Historically, the vulnerability is recognised as one of the important aspects of system properties – system quality. The wide utilization of vulnerability can be observed in the IT area. Some approaches to vulnerability assessment are based on experiences and empiricism. For some other works it is necessary to have a quantitative value used for expressing vulnerability. In this paper we have applied the methods of analytical research, information search and a synthesis. They serve to introduce selected approaches expressing system vulnerability. The attention is paid mainly to the environmental and critical infrastructure systems. The results are presented in the form of definitions, equations or graphs. All these alternatives are further usable for assessing critical infrastructure elements. The results are also suitable for deeper development of a safety research scientific discipline.
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