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2015 | nr 4 (50) | 11-23
Tytuł artykułu

Fluctuations in Exchange Rate and Aggregate Exports in Ukraine

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Wahania kursów walut i ich wpływ na zagregowany eksport na Ukrainie
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
W artykule analizowane są efekty wpływu zmienności kursów walut (ERV) na zagregowany eksport na Ukrainie. Analizę przeprowadzono na podstawie kwartalnych danych z lat 1990-2013. W literaturze można znaleźć wskazania, że zmienność kursów walut wpływa na redukcję ogólnego poziomu handlu. W artykule sprawdzono prawdziwość tego stwierdzenia na podstawie danych ze wspomnianego okresu, dotyczących handlu zagranicznego na Ukrainie, z użyciem metody ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) badającej współzależność. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują negatywny wpływ ERV na poziom ukraińskiego eksportu. Uzyskany wynik badań jest ważny z politycznego punktu widzenia, gdyż sugeruje, że decydenci powinni brać pod uwagę negatywny wpływ ERV na poziom eksportu w trakcie ustalania polityki kursowej dla celów związanych z bilansem płatniczym.(abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
This paper examines the effect of Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) on the aggregate exports of Ukraine during the period of 1990 to 2013 using quarterly data. In the literature, it is found that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction in the overall level of trade. The paper tests this finding for Ukrainian foreign trade in the aforementioned period using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method to co-integration. Overall, our findings suggest that there is a negative effect of ERV on Ukrainian exports. From a policy prospective, this result is important because it suggests that policy makers should consider the negative effect of ERV on exports when exercising exchange rate policy for balance of payment purposes.(original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
11-23
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Hellenic Open University, School of Social Sciences, Parodos Aristotelous, Greece
  • School of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Coventry University, UK
  • Technological Institute of Western Macedonia, Hellenic Open University, Greece
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171414469
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