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2007 | nr 46 Ryzyko w procesach gospodarczych, społecznych i inwestycjach kapitałowych | 9-27
Tytuł artykułu

Metody szacowania kosztów wahań koniunkturalnych

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Methods of Measuring the Costs of Business Cycles
Języki publikacji
PL
Abstrakty
Jednym z istotnych składników ryzyka, jakie towarzyszy podmiotom gospodarczym, jest ryzyko związane z wahaniami poziomu aktywności ekonomicznej. Państwa od dawna podejmują wysiłki w celu łagodzenia skutków fluktuacji wielkości indywidualnej konsumpcji, poziomu bezrobocia, czy stóp procentowych. Z działaniami tymi wiąże się jednak pytanie o przynoszone przez nie korzyści. Jest ono tym bardziej istotne, że polityka redystrybucji dochodów niesie ze sobą także spore koszty będące skutkiem osłabienia bodźców do podejmowania aktywności gospodarczej czy utrzymywania rozbudowanego aparatu biurokratycznego.(fragment tekstu)
EN
The paper presents the methods of measuring the costs of business cycles and their results. It starts with Lucas calculation based on the representative agent and complete markets assumptions. Then its modifications concerning utility function and the aggregate consumption stream modelling are discussed as well as the papers dealing with the incomplete markets and idiosyncratic income risk. Further, the effects of fluctuation on the level of consumption and the economic growth rate are summarized. The results show that the welfare costs of business cycles are much higher than it was originally claimed by Lucas and they are likely at least as large as a few percent of the aggregate consumption per year.(original abstract)
Twórcy
  • Akademia Ekonomiczna im. Karola Adamieckiego w Katowicach
Bibliografia
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  • Barro R.: On the welfare costs of consumption uncertainty. Manuskrypt 2007.
  • Beaudry P., Pages C.: The cost of business cycles and the stabilization value of unemployment insurance. "European Economic Review" 2001, Vol. 45, No. 8.
  • Cho Jang-Ok, Cooley T.: Business cycle uncertainty and economic welfare. Manuskrypt 2005.
  • Clark K., Leslie D., Symons E.: The costs of recession. "The Economic Journal" 1994, Vol. 104, No. 422.
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  • Dolmas J.: Risk preferences and the welfare cost of business cycles. "Review of Economic Dynamics" 1998, Vol. 1, No. 3.
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  • Epstein L., Zin S.: Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework. "Econometrica" 1989, Vol. 57, No. 4.
  • Gali J., Gertler M., Lopez-Salido D.: Markups, gaps, and the welfare cost of business fluctuations. Manuskrypt 2003.
  • Hansen G., Imrohoroglu A.: The role of unemployment insurance in an economy with liquidity constraints and moral hazard. "The Journal of Political Economy" 1992, Vol. 100, No. 1.
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  • IsslerJ., Franco A., Guillen O.: The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period. "Ensaios Economicos" 2006, No. 624, Escola de Pos Graduacao em Economia da Fundacao Getulio Vargas.
  • Kiley M.: An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy. "The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics" 2003, Vol. 3, No. 1.
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  • KrusellP., Smith A. Jr.: On the welfare effects of eliminating business cycles. "Review of Economic Dynamics" 1999, Vol. 2, No. 1.
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  • Lucas R. Jr.: Models of business cycles. Basil Blackwell, New York 1987.
  • Lucas R. Jr.: Macroeconomic priorities. "American Economic Review" 2003, Vol. 93, No. 1.
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  • Obstfeld M.: Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability. "European Economic Review" 1994, Vol. 38, No. 7.
  • OtrokC: On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles. "Journal of Monetary Economics" 2001, Vol. 47, No. 1.
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  • Portier F., Puch L.: It's a small small welfare cost offluctuations. Manuskrypt 2005.
  • Portier F., Puch L.: The welfare cost of business cycles in an economy with nonclearing markets. "The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics" 2007, Vol. 6, No. 3.
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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