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2012 | nr 97 Modelowanie preferencji a ryzyko '12 | 193-212
Tytuł artykułu

Metody prognozowania dynamicznych rankingów priorytetów technologicznych

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Methods of Forecasting Dynamic Rankings of Technological Priorities
Języki publikacji
PL
Abstrakty
W niniejszym opracowaniu przedstawimy podstawy teoretyczne oraz wynikające z nich praktyczne algorytmy rozwiązywania istotnej klasy wielokryterialnych problemów decyzyjnych, występujących przy podejmowaniu decyzji inwestycyjnych w oparciu o rankingi celów i priorytetów. (fragment tekstu)
EN
This paper is devoted to the elaboration of methodological foundations of forecasting models that may be applied to establish anticipated future rankings of key technologies or strategic goals. We will also present the resulting practical approaches for rankings arising in some relevant classes of multicriteria decision problems. Usually, such rankings are built in within strategic planning activities and rely on results of prior as well as simultaneous foresight exercises. The ranking s of technological priorities can then be applied to allocate the organization's budget to different investment areas covered by the competences of the authorities concerned. Another common approach to apply the rankings is to define the temporal relevance of priorities, i.e. those ranked higher are considered first. We will show how the dynamic rankings can be constructed from forecasts or foresight results concerning the external circumstances, economical, social, and technological, using a dynamic programming model. The forecasting model presented in Secs. 3-5 contains the rules which govern the actions of the decision makers when a technological priority changes in a response to an external event or as a result of achieving certain goals. The novelty of the dynamic priority ranking approach (DPR) here presented consists a.o. in the fact that the mutual impacts of events forming and inf1uencing future scenarios are taken into account in one model jointly. The forecasting results are visualised as a time-dependent relative priority importance chart showing the priorities on an ordinal scale. In Sec.5 we will provide an illustrative example of the real-life applications of the adaptive ranking methodology to rank key intervention areas in a foresight exercises, where the ranking forecasts have been derived using the reference-set-based outranking method. Using an assignment algorithm provided in Sec. 5, the results can be applied to assign funding to innovative technological projects. (original abstract)
Twórcy
  • AGH Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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