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2004 | nr 11-12 | 24-34
Tytuł artykułu

Niekeynesowskie skutki zacieśnienia polityki fiskalnej : Zmodyfikowany model Blancharda. Część 2

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Non-Keynesian effects of tightening fiscal policy. Modified Blanchard's Model. Part 2
Języki publikacji
PL
Abstrakty
W tej części artykułu podjęto próbę weryfikacji, czy model Oliviera J. Blancharda uzupełniony o wydatki publiczne jest w stanie wyjaśnić różnice między skutkami dla łącznego popytu przy odmiennych sposobach zacieśniania polityki fiskalnej. Stwierdzono, że ograniczenie wydatków publicznych nigdy nie przynosi gorszych rezultatów niż podniesienie podatków.
EN
Non-Keynesian effects of a fiscal policy tightening are explained in two major ways. According to one group of economists, such effects occur only if public finances are on the verge of a crisis. These effects are caused by a credible, i.e. appropriately strong reduction of the deficit. They stem from the impact of the fiscal policy on the level of uncertainty. According to another group of economists, non-Keynesian effects of a fiscal policy tightening occur not so much due to the scale of the primary imbalance in the public finances, but to the way of balance regaining. Deficit reduction, regardless of its scale necessary to regain balance in public finances and regardless of the public debt volume, may be accompanied by an accelerated output growth if the deficit is reduced not by increasing taxes but by expenditure cuts, especially those for general government sector wages and social transfers. Non-Keynesian effects result from supply effects, e.g. improved competitiveness of domestic companies in international markets. Blanchard's Model (1990), providing the first explanation for non-Keynesian effects, is supplemented in the article with three types of public expenditure, i.e. neutral to the choices made by households, and expenditure that increases and alleviates negative effects of disorders caused by the taxation system on the output level. Such a modification was introduced in order to compare the impact of fiscal consolidation (performed through increasing taxes or through reducing specific categories of public spending) on the total demand. It was shown that even if we assume, as was the case in the model, that the main source of non-Keynesian effects of a fiscal policy tightening is its impact on the level of uncertainty, the influence of fiscal consolidation on the total demand still depends on the way in which the consolidation was implemented. Reductions in public spending never bring about worse results than increased taxes.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
24-34
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
Bibliografia
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  • 2. A. Alesina, R. Perotti (1996): Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects. NBER Working Paper, No. 5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, August.
  • 3. R.J. Barro (1974): Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? "Journal of Political Economy", Vol. 82, November/December, s. 1095-1117.
  • 4. R.J. Barro (1988): The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. NBER Working Paper, No. 2685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, August.
  • 5. R.J. Barro (1996): Reflections on Ricardian Equivalence. NBER Working Paper, No. 5502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, March.
  • 6. G. Bertola, A. Drazen (1993): Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity. "The American Economic Review", Vol. 83, No. 1, March.
  • 7. O.J. Blanchard (1985): Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons. "The Journal of Political Economy", Vol. 93, No. 2, April, s. 223-247.
  • 8. O.J. Blanchard (1990): Comment on Giavazzi and Pagano. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
  • 9. O.J. Blanchard, S. Fischer (1994): Lectures on Macroeconomics. The MIT Press, Cambridge _ London.
  • 10. A.C. Chiang (1994): Podstawy ekonomii matematycznej. Warszawa Państwowe Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne.
  • 11. B. Dalamagas (1993): How Efficient Is the Substitution of Debt for Taxes in Influencing Demand? "Applied Economics", Vol. 25, No. 3, March.
  • 12. A. Drazen (1990): Comment on Giavazzi and Pagano. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
  • 13. F. Giavazzi, T. Jappelli, M. Pagano (1999): Searching for Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy. CSEF Working Paper, No. 16, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance, February.
  • 14. F. Giavazzi, T. Jappelli, M. Pagano (2000): Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries. NBER Working Paper, No. 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, January.
  • 15. F. Giavazzi, M. Pagano (1990): Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
  • 16. F. Giavazzi, M. Pagano (1996): Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience. NBER Working Paper, No. 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, October.
  • 17. U. Kosterna (1995): Deficyt budżetu państwa i jego skutki ekonomiczne. Warszawa Fundacja Naukowa Centrum Analiz Społeczno-Ekonomicznych oraz Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
  • 18. J.C. McDermott, R.F. Wescott (1996): An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 4, International Monetary Fund, Washington D. C., December.
  • 19. R. Perotti (1999): Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad. "Quarterly Journal of Economics", November, s. 1399-1436.
  • 20. R. Perotti (2000): What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy? Dipartimento do economia pubblica e territoriale, Universita di Pavia, Collegio Ghislieri, 6-7 Octobre.
  • 21. R. Perotti (2002): Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries. ECB Working Paper, No. 168, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, August.
  • 22. D. Romer (2000): Makroekonomia dla zaawansowanych. Warszawa Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
  • 23. A. Sutherland (1995): Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1246, London, September.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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Identyfikator YADDA
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