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2008 | 4 | 134-143
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PROGNOSTICATING AND ANALYTICAL STUDIES OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN G.M.DOBROV CENTER FOR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY POTENTIAL AND SCIENCE HISTORY STUDIES OF THE NAS OF UKRAINE: RETROSPECTIVE REVIEW

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UK
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EN
G.M. Dobrov began working in the field of scientific forecasting after attending the International Congress on Science History (Cornwall University, 1962). His first article on the problem ('On Prediction of Science Development') appeared in 1964. In the book 'Age of Great Hopes: Fates of S&T Progress in XX Century' (1964) he outlines his idea about forecasting periods. In 1966, G.M. Dobrov organized Ist All-Union Symposium on Applications of Computing Methods in Studies on History of S&T Progress. His famous book 'Science about Science' (1966) contained the section 'Scientific Forecasting', where he gave the definition to the notion 'science development forecast' and emphasized the three main groups of forecasting constraints. In 1968-1969, Dobrov and his team conducted two projects related to forecasting in the field of computing techniques, under the scientific supervision of V. Glushkov. Cooperation of Dobrov and Glushkov led to elaboration of 'Methodology for Program-Based Forecasting of Science and Technology Development'. Dobrov's book 'Science and Technology Forecasting' (1969) became the milestone in S&T forecasting in the USSR, and proved the outstanding status of Kiev school of S&T forecasting. In the second edition of 'Science about Science' (1970), the section about forecasting was significantly revised and extended, and the third edition of the book was published in 1989. In 1971, Dobrov started cooperation with the Paton Institute for Electric Welding, devoted to S&T forecasting in welding technologies. His book 'Expert Evaluation in S&T Forecasting' (1974) contained a review of experiences gained by Kiev school of S&T forecasting. In 1976-1979, Dobrov worked in the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria), as head of the group on technology assessment. In 1978, he was invited as 'guest' editor of the journal 'Technological Forecasting and Social Change' (published in New York City). He was also the founder of the Center for Science & Technology Potential and Science History Studies, which, after his death in 1989, continued works on S&T forecasting methodology.
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autor
autor
  • O. Popovich, Center for Science & Technology Potential and Science History Studies, NAS of Ukraine, 60, Taras Shevchenko blvd, 01032 Kyiv, Ukraine
Bibliografia
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Bibliografia
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