Euro-area enlargement and euro adoption strategies
This paper commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the EMU@10 project and published in Hungarian by the permission of the EU Commission. The original English version is available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ publication_summary12103_en.htm. The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by new members on the road to the euro and the strategies and timing of euro adoption. It investigates the real/nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro-area entry, arguing that the initial level of economic development, as measured by per capita income, and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and the timing of entry into the euro area, for the lower per capita income is, the larger is the price-level gap to close and the greater the danger of credit booms and overheating. It is argued that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to managing the price-level catch-up process. A suggestion is made for modifying the Maastricht inflation criterion, which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.
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