BULDING UP DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR SCIENTIFIC PERSONNEL IN UKRAINE BY USE OF STATISTICAL MODELS (Pobudova stsenariyiv rozvytku naukovykh kadriv v Ukrayini na osnovi vykorystannya statystychnykh modeley)
The article is devoted to studying and medium-term forecasting of the scientific personnel in Ukraine by use of multifactor regression model, with focus on change in R&D employment mainly through redistribution of qualified staff between economic activities and with consideration to possible transformation of the socio-economic model in Ukraine in the forthcoming three years. Most significant factors (indicators) are identified, which, if brought to control, enable for accelerating or hampering renovation of the scientific personnel: the share of GDP allocated for R&D, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the industry average, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the average in public administration, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the average in banking and financial intermediation sector, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the average across the national economy. Three development scenarios for the scientific personnel in Ukraine till 2012 are built on the basis of the constructed multifactor regression model (scenario 1 - moderate growth; scenario 2 - optimistic; scenario 3 - pessimistic), with measures of budgetary support to science, proposed specifically for each model. Results of the modeling allow for the conclusion that growth in R&D employment in Ukraine can only be expected through recruitment of new personnel, but this growth will only be feasible when proper working conditions in R&D are created and the ratio of compensation in R&D and 'competitive' sectors (finances and public administration in the first place) is changed.
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