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PL
W artykule wykorzystano dostępne informacje o aktywności słonecznej wykazującej ok. 11-letnią cykliczność i powiązano ją z czasem wystąpienia powodzi i susz w dorzeczu Odry w ostatnich 50 latach. Zachodzi wyraźna zbieżność największych wezbrań opadowych z okresami niższej aktywności słonecznej oraz występowania susz w okresach po wystąpieniu maksimum tej aktywności. Pokazuje to, że aktywność słoneczna może być istotnym czynnikiem wspomagającym długoterminowe przewidywanie (ryzyka) wystąpienia powodzi na południu Polski. Ta korelacja wskazuje na podwyższone ryzyko wystąpienia niebezpiecznych powodzi w dorzeczu Odry i/lub Wisły w perspektywie 1-3 lat (do 2021 r.).
EN
The article is based on the available information concerning the solar activity indicating its 11-years’ periodicity and linking it to the pattern of occurrence of floods and droughts in the Oder River basin in the last 50 years. There is an evident convergence between the largest rainfall floods and the periods of lower activity of the sun, as well as the occurrence of floods following the activity peaks. It indicates that the solar activity may be an important factor used for long-term forecast of (the risk of) floods in the southern part of Poland. This correlation shows higher risk of the occurrence of dangerous floods in the Oder and/or Vistula basin in 1-3 years’ perspective (until 2021).
EN
Fluctuations of the groundwater level have complex origins. Among many natural agents influencing this phenomenon, researchers list cosmic factors, most commonly solar activities. However, publications lack results ofstatistical analyzes confirming this correlation. This paper presents the outcome of an investigation on the dependence between the low-energy flux ofsecondary cosmic radiation (determined by solar cycles) and the variability of the groundwater level. Data for the study originate from the cosmic radiation station in Moscow and from the PGI-NRI groundwater monitoring network and concern the period of 1966-2016. 711 groundwater monitoring sites, located all over Poland, have been analyzed. Calculated values of Spearman correlation coefficients have indicated good significant correlation in 65% of all analyzed points. The strength of the established relations is generally poor (30%) or very poor (18%). Correlations of moderate intensity are relatively rare (15%), whereas strong correlations occur only occasionally (2%). Very strong correlations were not detected at all. In the overall sample tested, the number ofpositively correlated points (37%) exceeded those with a negative correlation (28%). Also, the strength of the relations is higher in the positively correlated points. On national scale, it is possible to distinguish some areas with a dominance of points with either positive or negative correlations. Heterogeneous direction of the observed relationships allowedfor a conclusion that there are unknown processes that model effects of the sun or cosmic rays on meteorological elements such as precipitation and air temperature, and thus indirectly influence the groundwater level.
3
Content available remote Przyczyny i mechanizmy zmian klimatu w plejstocenie : state of art
EN
The reason of cyclic climate change during the Pleistocene is probably so-called Milankovitch cycles, consisting of three main orbital parameters of the Earth: the shape of Earth’s orbit eccentricity, axial tilt of Earth and precession – change in the direction of the Earth’s axis. They also impact on the insolation, which significantly contributes to the formation of ice sheets. The climate is conditioned largely by energy derived from the sun, dependent on the current solar activity. Specific configurations of these factors have contributed to the formation of glacial-interglacial cycles in the past; they have today and will have an impact on the climate of our planet in the future.
PL
Wszelkie procesy mające miejsce na powierzchni Słońca oraz w jego atmosferze mają wpływ na powstawanie zaburzeń promieniowania elektromagnetycznego, które dociera do Ziemi oraz fluktuacji wiatru słonecznego. W tym kontekście niezbędne wydaje się być wyjaśnienie tego zjawiska, tym bardziej, że w ostatnich latach notowano podwyższoną aktywność słoneczną. Co więcej, pojawiają się pierwsze doniesienia o istniejącym związku pomiędzy aktywnością słoneczną, a czasem życia ludzi. W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono część badań i analiz dotyczących wpływu aktywności słonecznej na propagację fal radiowych, ilustrujących związek pomiędzy zmianami cyklu słonecznego a tłumieniem fal radiowych, długoterminowy rozkład aktywności słonecznej oraz zmian temperatury, a także przykładowe okresy interferencji słonecznych wyznaczone z użyciem metod komputerowych.
EN
Paper discussed the impact of solar activity on the radio waves propagation on the basis of satellite signal. In this context the Author presents e.g. extraterrestrial natural noise sources, the influence of changes in the solar cycle on the radio wave propagation among selected frequency, the distribution of solar activity and the changes in temperature in 130 years. Moreover the Author presents the approximated periods of solar interferences for EUTELSAT Hot Bird 13A, 13B and 13C satellites.
EN
Solar space weather events like Coronal Mass Ejections and solar flares are usually accompanied by solar radio bursts, which can be used for a low-cost real-time space weather monitoring. In order to make a standard system, a CALLISTO (Compound Astronomical Low-cost Low-frequency Instrument for Spectroscopy in Transportable Observatory) spectrometers, designed and built by electronics engineer Christian Monstein of the Institute for Astronomy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) have been already developed all over the world since 2005 to monitor the solar activities such as solar flare and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Up to date, there are 25 sites that used the same system in order to monitor the Sun within 24 hours. This outstanding project also is a part of the United Nations together with NASA initiated the International Heliophysical Year IHY2007 to support developing countries participating in ‘Western Science’. Beginning February 2012, Malaysia has also participated in this project. The goals of this work is to highlight how does the signal processing of solar radio burst data transfer from a site of National Space Centre Banting Selangor directly to the Institute of Astrophysics Switzerland. Solar activities in the low region, focusing from 150 MHz to 400 MHz is observed daily beginning from 00.30UT 12.30 UT. Here, we highlighted how does the signal processing work in order to make sure that the operation is in the best condition. Although the solar activities have experienced rapid growth recently, high-level management of CALLISTO system has remained successfully manage the storage of data. It is also not easy to maintain the future data seems the number of sites are also growing from time to time. In this work, we highlighted the potential role of Malaysia as one of the candidate site that possible gives a good data and focusing on a few aspects such as optimization, and performance evaluation data and visualization.
EN
A short term variation of solar flare in nine months (January 2010 to September 2010) is presented. This paper review and analyze the correlation between radio flux strength measurement and solar flare in the X-ray region. The radio flux measurement data were taken from the National Research Council; Ottawa while hard X-ray emission observed by Royal Observatory of Belgium. The overall range of solar radio flux recorded in this study ranging from 68 x 10-22 Wm-2Hz-1 to 96 x 10-22 Wm-2Hz-1. As there was no class of an X of solar flare reported at all in this study, we can confirm that there are no major effects that happened on Earth and outer space such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar storms. We concluded that the Sun shows a very minimum activity towards 24th solar cycle.
EN
We developed a Faxon fir (Abies faxoniana) tree-ring width chronology at the timberline in the western Qinling Mountains, China. Herein February–July mean temperature was reconstructed for Zhouqu in the western Qinling Mountains back to AD 1650 based on the standard chronology. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 43.5% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1972–2006. Spatial correlation analyses with the gridded temperature data shows that the tem-perature reconstruction captures regional climatic variations over central and southeast China, and strong teleconnections with the nearby High Asia. There is a good agreement with cold and warm pe-riods previously estimated from tree-rings in Nepal, India and southwest China. The temperature re-construction indicates that there was pronounced cooling in Zhouqu during the Maunder Minimum (late 1600s to early 1700s). The cold period (1813–1827) of the temperature reconstruction coincide with the volcanic eruptions. Significant spectral peaks are found at 56.9, 22.3, 11.4, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.2 and 2.0 years. The spatial correlation patterns between our temperature reconstruction and SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans suggest a connection between regional temperature variations and the atmospheric circulations. It is thus revealed that the chronology has enough potential to reconstruct the climatic variability further into the past.
EN
Radiocarbon 14C is a cosmogenic isotope, which is most extensively used by scientists from a wide variety of fields. Its rate of generation in the atmosphere depends on solar modulation and thus, studying 14C concentration in natural archives, one can reconstruct solar activity level in the past. The paper shows results of box-model calculations of generation of the 14C isotope in the atmosphere and its relative abundance during the time interval 1389–1800 AD, taking into account influence of changing climate. This interval includes the deep minimum of solar activity and period of significant change in atmospheric concentration of CO2 and global temperature. The performed analysis showed that concentration of 14C in the atmosphere reflects not only variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity but as well changes of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is shown that the decrease in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere during 1550–1600 can be connected with absorption of CO2 by the ocean surface layer. Thus, taking into account the climatic changes is an important condition for the reconstruction of solar activity in the past using data based on cosmogenic isotopes.
EN
We studied the inter-annual distributions of the nightglow intensities of the thermosphere atomic oxygen red 630.0 nm and green 557.7 nm lines observed from Abastumani during cloudless nights, the planetary geomagnetic Ap index, solar F10.7, and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) flux. It is demonstrated that: on magnetically weakly disturbed/ quiet conditions (Ap < 12) in equinoctial months the red line intensities are minimal, while those of the green line are maximal; the red line intensity increases in May–July and is comparatively low in June, where, unlike most mid-latitude regions, the green line intensity is maximal. The red and green line intensities increase with growing solar activity but their behaviors stay the same, which is considered as a possible regional manifestation of lower and upper atmosphere vertical coupling. It was also detected that, for cloudless nights in June, the number of magnetically disturbed day-nights is maximal and the decrease of the GCRs flux is the biggest during a year.
EN
Water vapor plays an important role in the global climate system. A clear relationship between water vapor and solar activity can explain some physical mechanisms of how solar activity influences terrestrial weather/climate changes. To gain insight of this possible relationship, the atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) as the terrestrial climate response was observed by ground-based GPS receivers over the Antarctic stations. The PWV changes analyzed for the period from 2003 to 2008 coincided with the declining phase of solar cycle 23 exhibited following the solar variability trend. Their relationship showed moderate to strong correlation with 0.45 < R2 < 0.93 (p < 0.01), on a monthly basis. This possible relationship suggests that when the solar-coupled geomagnetic activity is stronger, the Earth’s surface will be warmer, as indicated by electrical connection between ionosphere and troposphere.
EN
This work investigated an interrelationship between the monthly means of time derivatives of horizontal geomagnetic field, dH/dt, sunspot number, Rz, and aa index for the period of substorms (from –90 to –1800 nT) during the years 1990-2009. A total of 232 substorms were identified during the period of study. The time derivative of horizontal geomagnetic field, dH/dt, used as a proxy for geomagnetically induced current (GIC) exhibited high positive correlation with sunspot number (0.86) and aa index (0.8998). The obtained geomagnetic activity is in 92.665 per cent explicable by the combined effect of sunspot number and aa index. The distribution of substorms as a function of years gives a strong support for th e existence of geomagne tic activity increases, which implies that as the sunspot number increases the base level of geomagnetic activity increases too.
PL
Ogromne fluktuacje pola magnetycznego w magnetosferze ziemskiej powodują wielkie przepływy prądu elektrycznego w górnych warstwach atmosfery i indukują przepływy w sieciach infrastrukturalnych, prowadzące do katastrofalnych awarii systemów elektroenergetycznych w skali planetarnej. W latach 2012-2013 Słońce wchodzi w fazę maksimum aktywności.
EN
Enormous fluctuations of magnetic field in the Earth’s magnetosphere are causing immense electric current flows in the upper atmosphere and inducing current surges in infrastructural networks resulting in massive planetary blackouts. In the 2012-2013 period the Sun enters solar maximum.
EN
The General Lighthouse Authorities of the United Kingdom and Ireland (GLA) provide marine Aids-to-Navigation (AtoNs) for the benefit and safety of all mariners within their waters. These AtoNs include traditional lighthouses, buoys and various radionavigation systems. It is recognised that GPS, or more generally Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become the primary means of obtaining Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) information at sea. Mariners may have come to believe that GPS is infallible, yet it is known to be vulnerable to solar activity, interference and system failures. The Sun continuously releases random bursts of energy and highly charged particles. The impact of these emissions on the Earth is known as space weather. Bursts of electromagnetic energy can result in radio blackouts; bursts of high energy particles can increase ionising radiation and affect space craft performance; and bursts of magnetised plasma can result in the degradation and potential loss of radionavigation signals on Earth. The amount of solar activity is linked with the natural sunspot cycle, which shows the number of sunspots peak approximately every 11 years, with the next peak due in 2013. Sunspots occur almost continuously, but normally give rise to weak solar events that generally go by unnoticed. However significant storms can occur at any time and as we approach peak activity, the number of space weather events will increase. AtoNs generally report their position using radio systems, whether through the Automatic Identification System (AIS), public networks or dedicated links; and often use GNSS to calculate their position and to obtain timing information. Mariners use GNSS for PNT information; with this information integrated into many different bridge systems. Powerful solar storms can affect GNSS performance and the reception of their signals, which may lead to different correlated events, both on and off the ship. During very extreme and very rare storms, national power systems may be switched off to protect the infrastructure which would clearly affect those services relying on mains power without backup. This paper reports the output of a study into the potential effects of space weather on GLA AtoN service provision and presents mitigating actions, where appropriate. The outcome of this study will help the GLA to continue to provide the highest level of AtoN availability, helping to ensure the safety of all mariners.
EN
During the early stages of the study of the origin of life, not enough attention was paid to the question of the correlation of chemical evolution on Earth and the all-important evolution of the still-to-be understood early Sun. Today, due to the advent of a significant fleet of space missions and the possibility of performing experiments in the International Space Station (ISS), a meaningful study begins to be possible concerning factors that led to an early onset of life on Earth. We wish to review and update recent work concerning the frontier between Space Weather (SpW) and Astrobiology. We argue that the present robust programs of various space agencies reinforce our hope for a better understanding of the bases of Astrobiology. Eventually, with a more realistic model of the Sun, more reliable discussions of all the factors influencing the origin of life on Earth, and hence Astrobiology, will be possible.
EN
A study of the geomagnetic storm of November 20-21, 2003, is presented using Solar X-rays data, solar wind parameters and magnetic index, Dst. The results suggest that very large X class flares may not cause very intense geomagnetic storms, as flares of M importance would do. Furthermore, the results suggest that the solar wind structure that was responsible for this storm is of the shock-driver gas configuration in which the sheath is the most geoeffective element. Presently it is shown that an intense storm can be driven by two successive southward Bz structures without a resultant "double dip" at the boundary of these structures within the corresponding interval of the main phase. Furthermore, this study confirms earlier results that show that pressure enhancement does not cause the direct injection of new particles into the ring current region; rather it causes a local adiabatic energization of the particles already within the ring current region.
EN
A brief review of the research of atmospheric effects of cosmic rays is presented. Numerical models are discussed, that are capable to compute the cosmic ray induced ionization at a given location and time. Intercomparison of the models, as well as comparison with fragmentary direct measurements of the atmospheric ionization, validates their applicability for the entire atmosphere and the whole range of the solar activity level variations. The effect of sporadic solar energetic particle events is shown to be limited on the global scale, even for the most severe event, but can be very strong locally in polar regions, affecting the physical-chemical properties of the upper atmosphere, especially at high altitudes. Thus, a new methodology is presented to study cosmic ray induced ionization of the atmosphere in full detail using realistic numerical models calibrated to direct observations.
EN
This work aims to describe some aspects relevant to the emergence of magnetic structures on the solar surface. Using high resolution photospheric and chromospheric data, besides than EUV images acquired by space telescopes, the dynamics of rising flux tubes is studied. It is shown that, for both long-lived and short-lived magnetic regions, the flux tubes are initially characterized by a high rising velocity, which eventually decreases as the region develops. Other results concern the timeline of the active regions appearance in the atmospheric layers and the asymmetries in plasma downflows between preceding and following legs of the flux tubes. These results are briefly discussed in the light of most recent models.
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