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1

An analysis of hydrogen gas saturation in the sedimentary sequences of Volyn-Podillya (Ukraine)

Hubych Ihor, Krupskyi Yurii, Tsikhon Serhii

Journal of Geotechnology and Energy

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2025

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Vol. 42, no. 1

29--36

EN

With the aim of Ukrainian industry using hydrogen energy, the paper considers the general patterns of hydrogen distribution in the sedimentary sequences of Volyn-Podillya. The general features of the distribution of water-dissolved and sorbed gases in rocks within productive and water-saturated complexes are analyzed. The genetic relationships between individual components of natural gases have been established, which allows us to identify depth intervals where hydrogen predominates in the well section. The latter, when used for regional forecasting, makes it possible to establish zones, and thus directions for the search for hydrogen accumulations in the sedimentary cover in Volyn-Podillya.

2

Modeling of mine water pollution due to corrosion of flooded metal equipment: Ukrainian case

Shvets Iryna, Zbykovskyy Yevgen, Kalynychenko Valeriy

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

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2025

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Vol. 26, iss. 8

234--246

EN

This study presents an assessment and long-term forecast of corrosion processes in the flooded "Centralna" coal mine, located in Myrnohrad, Donetsk region, Ukraine. This mine is currently in the zone of active military operations. Coal mining has stopped and mining equipment is subject to uncontrolled flooding by groundwater. This flooding has resulted in significant hydrogeological and geochemical changes within the underground workings and adjacent aquifers. The research focused on evaluating the chemical composition of groundwater and its influence on the corrosion of metallic equipment flooded in the mine. Laboratory analyses of groundwater were conducted on 130 parameters, with key indicators including pH (7.7), electrical conductivity (3610 μS/cm), chlorides (267 mg/l), and sulfates (1030 mg/l). The composition of metal structures, including structural, carbon, alloy and high-strength steels, was studied. The total mass of the flooded metal equipment in the mining and development sections is approximately 3,300 tons. Despite the slightly alkaline pH, elevated concentrations of chlorides and sulfates, combined with high water conductivity, were found to significantly increase the corrosion potential of mine water. Expert assessments using an integral scoring system identified chlorides as the dominant corrosion factor (16.2 points out of 20), followed by conductivity (13.2) and sulfates (12.5). A predictive model was developed to estimate long-term corrosion rates and the corresponding increase in ferrous iron (Fe2+) concentrations in the groundwater. Three corrosion rate scenarios (0.05, 0.1, and 0.15 mm/year) were examined over a 30-year period. Results indicated a gradual acidification of mine water, with pH decreasing to 6.67 and Fe2+ concentrations potentially reaching 325 mg/l. These processes are consistent with patterns observed in other flooded coal mines in Eastern Europe. The findings emphasize the importance of long-term monitoring of hydrochemical conditions in flooded mining environments to predict potential ecological risks associated with groundwater contamination by metals.

3

Research on the causes of erroneous forecast generated using the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations for the process of vehicle operation

Ziółkowski Jarosław, Lęgas Aleskandra, Oszczypała Mateusz, Konwerski Jakub, Małachowski Jerzy

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences

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2025

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Vol. 73, nr 6

art. no. e155046

EN

The work attempts to investigate the causes of incorrect predictions of the Chapman-Kolmogorov system of equations generated during vehicle operation. When researching the process of exploitation of technical objects, Markov theory is often used in literature on the subject. Based on the developed Markov or semi-Markov models, on the one hand, basic reliability indicators (such as readiness) are assessed, and the evolution of the considered operation process is anticipated. The solutions of the Chapman-Kolmogorov system serve as the basis for preparing the forecast. For applications, forecasts of limit probabilities, determination times, and oscillation parameters of the probabilities of the states of the exploitation process are useful. The literature on the subject indicates the interdependence of each forecast on the estimation errors of all elements of the transition intensity matrix of the model, as well as errors in the calculation of its eigenvalues, as a potential cause of unsatisfactory forecast performance in continuous time. Considering the above, the main topic of this work was to investigate the correctness of the Chapman-Kolmogorov assumption for the vehicle operation process, the solution of which will make a significant substantive contribution to the current state of knowledge on modeling operation processes.

4

Optimize building energy efficiency design and evaluation with machine learning

Gu Chun

Archives of Civil Engineering

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2025

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Vol. 71, nr 1

615--629

EN

With the increasing demand for energy efficiency optimization in the building industry, this study explores the application of machine learning technology in building energy efficiency design and evaluation. By comprehensively analyzing energy consumption data, environmental factors, building characteristics, and user behavior patterns, this paper proposes a machine learning-based approach aimed at accurately predicting and improving the energy efficiency of buildings. The study collected and pre-processed a large amount of data, built and trained multiple models, including neural networks, which showed a high degree of predictive accuracy in cross-validation. The results show that the neural network has obvious advantages in the task of building energy efficiency prediction. In addition, the interpretability of the model in practical applications and future research directions, such as the introduction of real-time monitoring data and in-depth study of the interpretability of the model, are also discussed. This study not only provides a new perspective for building energy efficiency optimization, but also provides a practical tool for intelligent building design and operation.

5

Traffic behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential consequences for passenger rail transport in the example of selected European countries

Barczak Agnieszka, Kauf Sabina

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Morskiej w Szczecinie

|

2024

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nr 78 (150)

22--34

EN

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused vast changes in the functioning of societies and economies, including restrictions on the use of rail transportation. As a result, the number of passengers has declined, and despite the lifting of restrictions, it is still difficult to estimate when and if passenger rail traffic will return to its pre-pandemic state. Therefore, it seems important to consider the following: how the pandemic has affected the transportation behavior patterns of residents and, above all, what should be done to encourage passengers to use rail transportation more often, which is more environmentally friendly and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, it seems important to consider what the “new normal” in rail transportation should look like. This article analyzes the number of passengers traveling by rail in eight European countries. This work considers quarterly data for 2013‒2019, combined passenger forecasts for 2020‒2021, and annual forecasts of rail passenger traffic until 2025 built using data for 2012‒2021.

6

Technological and market aspects of meat production

Tucki Karol, Wielewska Izabela, Zuzek Dagmara K., Nowakowski Tomasz

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2024

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z. 203

575--598

EN

Purpose: The article presents a detailed analysis of the development of the European meat market. Based on statistical data for 2007-2023, a forecast of the sector's development until 2030 was prepared. The production of pork, poultry, beef, mutton and goat meat in all European Union countries was analyzed in detail. Based on statistical data, a forecast of carbon dioxide emissions and water consumption in the production process was prepared. The case study presents the characteristics of a selected meat plant from the point of view of the technological process implemented there and the impact of the meat plant on the environment. The main factors affecting the environment were also analyzed, i.e. the amount of air pollution emissions, the amount of waste generated and the amount of sewage discharged. The concentrations of pollutants released into the air were calculated for the installations operating in the plant. Design/methodology/approach: The subject of observation and assessment were industry reports, technology block diagrams and calculations based on those provided by the examined business entity. The presentation and detailed analysis of available data took the form of tables and bar charts, which were justified descriptively. The source of information for this study was the literature on the subject, statistical data and numerous studies by the Central Statistical Office and Eurostat, reports in the industry section, an interview with the owner of the meat plant, analysis of source documents provided by the examined business entity as well as the authors' own observations. The characteristics and sales market of the company were examined. The machinery of the examined company and the level of investments made over the years were also analyzed. Findings: The examined production plant produces goods for 12 months a year. It processes 2500 tons of raw material annually, or ca. 48 tons of livestock per week. The specific nature of the plant requires continuity of production. The article presents the characteristics of the production plant, the production process and the plant's technological and production facilities. The impact of the production process at the plant on the environment was analyzed in terms of applicable legal aspects and emission limits. Research limitations/implications: The analysis of the meat production sector and development forecasts was carried out for all European Union countries. The impact of the meat production plant was analyzed for a selected entity located in Poland.

7

The fleet of the future, or what we will fly in the Europe of tomorrow

Dalba Bartosz

Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport

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2024

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z. 139

117--138

EN

The constantly changing air traffic, whether it is its stable growth, which was observed until 2019, or the very dynamic changes observed in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, entails significant changes in the entire air transport sector. One of them is undeniably a change in the fleet, both used and registered. This article is devoted to creating an overall forecast for the European fleet mix and is based on publicly available market data. As a starting point for the forecast served the outline of general characteristics of air traffic, as well as main characteristics of the European fleet. In the following sections, the market trends for the European fleet were analysed - manufacturers' forecasts, the World Airliner Census, behaviour of a few selected airlines and a few general market trends were studied. Presented analyses allowed for the determination of real trends that will be noticeable in the near future. Their proper description allowed for the creation of a coherent forecast of airliners in Europe in three selected time horizons. The article concludes with a summary that provides an overall overview of the European fleet of the future. This article was originally prepared in the first half of 2021 and some of the information and conclusions drawn from it may be out of date based on the current information, events and changes in the aviation market. The fact that the article is based solely on publicly available and free data should also be considered a limitation in the accuracy of the presented considerations.

PL

Ciągle zmieniający się ruch lotniczy, czy to jego stabilny wzrost, jaki był obserwowany do 2019 roku, czy też bardzo dynamiczne zmiany obserwowane w dobie pandemii COVID-19, pociąga za sobą znaczące zmiany w całym sektorze transportu lotniczego. Jedną z nich jest niezaprzeczalnie zmiana we flocie, zarówno używanej, jak i zarejestrowanej. Niniejszy artykuł poświęcony został stworzeniu ogólnej prognozy europejskiej floty i opiera się na ogólnodostępnych danych rynkowych. Jako punkt wstępny do prognoz posłużyło nakreślenie ogólnej charakterystyki ruchu lotniczego i jego rozwoju, jak również przedstawienie głównych charakterystyk floty europejskiej. W kolejnych podpunktach przeanalizowane zostały trendy rynkowe dotyczące floty europejskiej – przestudiowano prognozy producentów, Światowy Spis Samolotów Liniowych, zachowanie kilku wybranych linii lotniczych oraz wyszczególniono kilka ogólnych trendów rynkowych. Przedstawione analizy pozwoliły na określenie realnych trendów, jakie będą zauważalne w najbliższym czasie. Odpowiednie ich opisanie pozwoliło na stworzenie spójnej prognozy samolotów liniowych w Europie w trzech wybranych horyzontach czasowych. Artykuł został zakończony podsumowaniem, w którym ogólnie scharakteryzowano europejską flotę liniowych statków powietrznych przyszłości. Artykuł ten został pierwotnie przygotowany w pierwszej połowie 2021 roku i część informacji oraz wniosków z niego płynących może być nieaktualna w świetle obecnych informacji, wydarzeń oraz zmian w obrębie rynku lotniczego. Za ograniczenie w dokładności przedstawionych rozważań należy również uznać fakt, że artykuł opiera się wyłącznie na ogólno-dostępnych i darmowych danych.

8

30 years of extraction of construction aggregates in Poland – analysis of changes and forecasts

Baic Ireneusz, Kozioł Wiesław, Miros Artur

Materiały Budowlane

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2024

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nr 7

30--37

EN

The development of construction aggregate extraction in the years 1993 - 2022 is presented. In order to estimate the volume of production of aggregates, econometric dependencies of aggregate extraction on three macroeconomic indicators, published on a monthly basis by the GUS, i.e.: GDP, cement consumption and the business index in the construction industry. The significant econometric relationships found for the analysed variables allow for the development of forecasts of aggregate extraction, which is an important advantage of the analysis.

PL

Przedstawiono rozwój wydobycia kruszyw budowlanych w latach 1993 - 2022. W celu oszacowania wielkości produkcji kruszyw opracowano ekonometryczne zależności wydobycia kruszyw od trzech makroekonomicznych wskaźników, publikowanych w okresach miesięcznych przez GUS, takich jak: PKB; zużycie cementu i wskaźnik koniunktury w budownictwie. Stwierdzone istotne zależności ekonometryczne w przypadku analizowanych zmiennych pozwalają na opracowanie prognoz wydobycia kruszyw, co jest ważną zaletą analizy.

9

Prognozowana wielkość rynku izolacyjno-konstrukcyjnych paneli metalowych do 2030 r.

Konarzewski Andrzej, Skowron Mateusz

Izolacje

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2024

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T. 29, nr 7/8

69--71

PL

Artykuł przedstawia szanse rozwoju do 2030 r. segmentu produkcji płyt IPM (ang. Insulated Metal Panels), płyt warstwowych w obustronnych okładzinach stalowych z rdzeniem izolacyjnym. Zawiera metodologię przeprowadzenia analizy rynku, omawia ich korelację z trendami zrównoważonego budownictwa oraz zestawia w formie wniosków działania, jakie muszą być wykonywane w celu uzyskania produktów optymalnych jakościowo.

EN

The article presents opportunities for the development of the production segment by 2030 IPM boards (Insulated Metal Panels), sandwich panels in double-sided steel cladding with an insulating core. It contains the methodology for conducting market analysis and discusses them correlation with sustainable construction trends and comparisons in the form of proposals for actions that must be carried out in order to obtain products of optimal quality.

10

Wpływ rozbudowy infrastruktury magazynów energii na rozwój gospodarczy – prognoza do 2040 r. : Raport Akademii Górniczo-Hutniczej i Polskiego Stowarzyszenia Magazynowania Energii

Kopeć Sławomir, Lach Łukasz, Adamska Barbara, Wrocławski Mieczysław, Szczeciński Piotr

Elektro Info

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2024

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nr 12

70--77

PL

Celem opracowania jest określenie możliwego wpływu rozbudowy infrastruktury bateryjnych magazynów energii na rozwój gospodarczy Polski do 2040 r. dla różnych scenariuszy rozwoju.

11

Nowe przepisy, prognozy i podsumowania : Co się działo w branży elektromobilności w 2024 r. i czego się spodziewać w roku 2025?

Roszkowska Agnieszka

Elektro Info

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2024

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nr 12

66--68

PL

W Polsce sukcesywnie rośnie liczba pojazdów elektrycznych i punktów ich ładowania i choć mijający rok 2024 nie był najlepszy, to jednak sporo dobrych rzeczy się wydarzyło. Warto je przypomnieć, aby mieć świadomość, że nasz rynek bezemisyjnego transportu wciąż się rozwija, mimo że nie brakuje na tej drodze przeszkód.

12

Improving predictions of the Estimate at Completion using the classic Earned Value input

Starczyk-Kołbyk Anna

Archives of Civil Engineering

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2024

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Vol. 70, nr 4

271--289

EN

The article investigates the author’s method of estimating the final cost of a construction investment. A list of proposed methods of calculating the value of the planned final cost of the EAC investment available in the world literature was used. The modification consisted in the first place in the verification and elimination of formulas that do not match the use in construction projects and the combination of formulas resulting in the same result. The study was aimed at enabling the right choice of the method of estimating the final cost of construction investments and determining the accuracy of this estimate. It should be emphasized that the analyzed investments were annexed many times during their implementation. On the basis of the obtained results of research carried out on real construction investments, it was found that 3 methods best predict the final cost of the investment. Finally, improvements were introduced, which were analyzed, the final effect of the article is a proposal of an original, universal formula, which in each of the analyzed construction investments, regardless of the trends, deviations from the cost at the time of the inspection, forecasts the most accurate result, consistent with reality. The conducted research gives the possibility of more effective financial management of a construction investment using the corrected EAC formula in EVM method.

PL

W artykule zbadano autorską metodę szacowania ostatecznego kosztu końcowego inwestycji budowlanej. Wykorzystano listę proponowanych metod obliczania wartości ostatecznego kosztu końcowego inwestycji EAC dostępną w literaturze światowej. Modyfikacja polegała przede wszystkim na weryfikacji i eliminacji formuł nieprzystających do zastosowania w inwestycjach budowlanych oraz łączeniu formuł dającym ten sam wynik. Celem badania było umożliwienie właściwego wyboru metody szacowania ostatecznego kosztu inwestycji budowlanych oraz określenie trafności tego oszacowania. Należy podkreślić, że analizowane inwestycje były wielokrotnie aneksowane w trakcie ich realizacji. Na podstawie uzyskanych wyników badań przeprowadzonych na rzeczywistych inwestycjach budowlanych stwierdzono, że 3 metody najlepiej przewidują ostateczny koszt końcowy inwestycji. Ostatecznie wprowadzono ulepszenia, które poddano analizie, efektem końcowym artykułu jest propozycja oryginalnej, uniwersalnej formuły, która w każdej z analizowanych inwestycji budowlanych, niezależnie od trendów, odchyleń od kosztów w momencie kontroli, prognozuje najdokładniejszy wynik, zgodny z rzeczywistością. Przeprowadzone badania dają możliwość efektywniejszego zarządzania finansami inwestycji budowlanej przy wykorzystaniu skorygowanej formuły EAC w metodzie EVM.

13

Advanced extreme learning machine for an hour PV forecast using general weather data

Farid Imam Wahyudi, Priyad Ardyono, Purnomo Mauridhi Hery, Abdillah Muhammad, Tjahjono Anang, Yorino Naoto

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2023

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R. 99, nr 1

134--139

EN

In recent years, Indonesia has placed great attention on the use of renewable energy resources as a way to decrease gas emission. Located at the equator, Indonesia has many advantages in renewable energy resources, especially photovoltaic (PV). Photovoltaic offers a big opportunity to contribute to the power grid, yet it also comes with its challenges. The use of PV involves a major uncertainty as the inputs of PV are weather conditions that are constantly changing. With Indonesia planning to penetrate the PV farm into the power grid, it is necessary to be able to generate an accurate forecast to assist the power grid control operator. Many algorithms are applied to obtain a precise and accurate PV power generation. One of the algorithms generally used by researchers is the conventional back propagation neural network. It is one of the most commonly applied algorithms, yet it also has a complex setting and numerous parameters. To help overcome this issue, extreme learning machine (ELM) is applied alongside with backpropagation neural network (BPNN), resulting in a more promising result. However, the random value for ELM parameters has become another problem of its own. This paper discusses an advanced ELM to obtain a better PV forecast result. The combination of PV input, ambient temperature, global tilted irradiation (GTI), wind direction, wind velocity and humidity are applied on the kernel extreme learning machine (K-ELM). We found that K-ELM proposes a better performance compared to ELM in facing a nonlinear data, along with better learning capability, mapping ability, and an improved efficiency. We also developed the input data using BPNN, ELM and support vector machine (SVM) to compare training, testing and calculation time

PL

W ostatnich latach Indonezja przywiązywała dużą wagę do wykorzystania odnawialnych źródeł energii jako sposobu na zmniejszenie emisji gazów. Położona na równiku Indonezja ma wiele zalet w zakresie odnawialnych źródeł energii, zwłaszcza fotowoltaiki (PV). Fotowoltaika daje duże możliwości wniesienia wkładu w sieć energetyczną, ale wiąże się również z wyzwaniami. Korzystanie z PV wiąże się z dużą niepewnością, ponieważ wejścia PV to stale zmieniające się warunki pogodowe. Ponieważ Indonezja planuje penetrację farmy fotowoltaicznej do sieci energetycznej, konieczne jest wygenerowanie dokładnej prognozy, aby pomóc operatorowi kontroli sieci energetycznej. W celu uzyskania precyzyjnego i dokładnego wytwarzania energii PV stosuje się wiele algorytmów. Jednym z algorytmów powszechnie stosowanych przez badaczy jest konwencjonalna sieć neuronowa wstecznej propagacji. Jest to jeden z najpowszechniej stosowanych algorytmów, ale ma też złożoną nastawę i liczne parametry. Aby rozwiązać ten problem, zastosowano ekstremalną maszynę uczącą (ELM) wraz z siecią neuronową z propagacją wsteczną (BPNN), co daje bardziej obiecujący wynik. Jednak losowa wartość parametrów ELM stała się kolejnym problemem. W niniejszym artykule omówiono zaawansowane ELM w celu uzyskania lepszego wyniku prognozy PV. Kombinacja sygnału wejściowego PV, temperatury otoczenia, napromieniowania globalnego odchylenia (GTI), kierunku wiatru, prędkości wiatru i wilgotności jest stosowana na maszynie ekstremalnego uczenia jądra (K-ELM). Odkryliśmy, że K-ELM proponuje lepszą wydajność w porównaniu do ELM w obliczu danych nieliniowych, a także lepszą zdolność uczenia się, zdolność mapowania i lepszą wydajność. Opracowaliśmy również dane wejściowe za pomocą BPNN, ELM i maszyny wektorów nośnych (SVM) w celu porównania czasu szkolenia, testowania i obliczeń.

14

The Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes within the Precarpathian Depression of the Cernivtsi Region of Ukraine

Hablovskyi Bohdan, Hablovska Nadiia, Shtohryn Liudmyla, Kasiyanchuk Dmytro, Kononenko Maryna

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2023

|

Vol. 24, nr 7

254--262

EN

The purpose of this publication was the long-term forecasting of the landslide processes activation for the territory of the Precarpathian depression within the Chernivtsi region, taking into account the complex effect of natural factors. On the basis of statistical analysis and processing of long-term observations of landslide activation and natural time factors in particular solar activity, seismicity, groundwater levels, precipitation and air temperature, the relationship was analysed, the main periods of landslide activation were determined, the contribution of each time factor to the complex probability indicator of landslide development was estimated and long-term forecasting was carried out. An analysis of the influence of geomorphology on the landslide development was performed by using GIS MapІnfo. By means of cross-correlation, Fourier spectral analysis, the periodicities were analysed and the relationships between the parameters were established. It was found that the energy of earthquakes precedes the activation of landslides by 1 year, which indicates the “preparatory” effect of earthquakes as a factor that reduces the stability of rocks. The main periodicities of the forecast parameters of 9–11, 19–21, 28–31 years were highlighted, which are consistent with the rhythms of solar activity. The forecasting was carried out using artificial neural networks and the prediction function of the Mathematical package Mathcad, based on the received data, the activation of landslides is expected in 2023–2026, 2030–2035, 2040–2044 with some short periods of calm. The main periods of the dynamics of the time series of landslides and natural factors for the territory of the Precarpathian depression within the Chernivtsi region were determined, and a long-term forecast of landslides was made. Taking into account the large areas of the spread of landslide processes, forecasting the likely activation is an important issue for this region, the constructed predictive time models make it possible to assess the danger of the geological environment for the purpose of early warning and making management decisions aimed at reducing the consequences of a natural disaster.

15

Impact of Global and Regional Climate Changes upon the Crop Yields

Kaminskiy Viktor, Asanishvili Nadia, Bulgakov Volodymyr, Kaminska Valentyna, Dukulis Ilmars, Ivanovs Semjons

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2023

|

Vol. 24, nr 4

71--77

EN

The negative impact of global and regional climate changes upon the crop yields leads to the violation of the crop production stability. The development of reliable methods for assessment of the climatic factors by the reaction of the crops to them in order to minimize the impact of climatic stresses upon the sustainability of food systems is an urgent scientific task. This problem was studied on the example of growing corn. A mathematical analysis of the main meteorological indicators for 16 years of research has been performed on the basis of which the frequency and direction of the occurrence of atypical and extreme weather conditions in various periods of the corn vegetation season were established by the coefficient of significance of deviations of the weather elements from the average long-term norm. It has been proved that the probability of occurrence of such weather conditions in the period from April to September is 38–81% in terms of the average temperature of the month, and 31–69% in terms of precipitation. By using the information base of the corn yields in a stationary field experiment with the gradations of factors: A (the fertilizer option) – A1-A12, B (the crop care method) – B1-B3, C (the hybrid) – C1-C7, the most critical month of the corn ontogeny was established when the weather has a decisive influence upon the formation of the crop. With the help of the correlation-regression analysis it was proved that the corn yield most significantly depends on the average monthly temperature in June, and for the hybrids with FАО 200–299 – on the amount of precipitation in the month of May. The obtained mathematical models make it possible to predict the yield of corn at a high level of reliability depending on the indicators of the main climate-forming factors in June, that is, even before the flowering of the plants (before the stage of ВВСН 61).

16

Bezpieczeństwo w ruchu drogowym w Polsce – prognoza liczby wypadków

Foryś Łukasz, Płocki Rafał

Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej

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2022

|

Nr 84

179--191

PL

W artykule omówiono stan bezpieczeństwa w ruchu drogowym w Polsce oraz cele stawiane przed krajami Unii Europejskiej związane ze zmniejszeniem liczby wypadków oraz liczby ofiar śmiertelnych. Ponadto dokonano analizy liczby wypadków w Polsce, uwzględniając okres od stycznia 2000 r. do maja 2022 r. Przeprowadzona analiza posłużyła do wyboru odpowiedniej metody prognozowania. Z uwagi na charakterystykę danych wykonano dekompozycję szeregu czasowego metodą LOESS oraz zastosowano wygładzanie wykładnicze metodą Holta-Wintersa. Opracowane modele poddano ocenie. Prognozę opracowano na dwa lata, koncentrując się przede wszystkim na roku 2023.

EN

The article discusses the state of road safety in Poland and the goals set for the European Union countries related to reducing the number of accidents and the number of fatalities. In addition, an analysis was made of the number of accidents in Poland taking into account the period from January 2000 to May 2022. The conducted analysis was used to select the appropriate forecasting method. Due to the characteristics of data, the time series decomposition was performed using the LOESS method and exponential smoothing using the Holt-Winters method. The developed models were evaluated. The forecast was developed for 2 years, focusing primarily on 2023.

17

Prediction of vehicle ownership growth using Gompertz model, case study of Hungary

Torok Adam

System Safety : Human - Technical Facility - Environment

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2022

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Vol. 4, nr 1

164-169

EN

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. Therefore, this research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data based on projected per capita GDP. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts passenger cars market penetration rate, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be easily modified based on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and progress in knowledge of the studied market.

18

The air cargo market overview

Dalba Bartosz

Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport

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2022

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z. 135

31--43

EN

Measured by the value of goods, about one-third of all international trade is moved by air. It stands for a big chunk of the transport market and global GDP, playing a crucial role in moving products of high value in relation to their weight, but also the backbone of overnight shipping and enabling e-commerce growth. This places air cargo as very dependent on overall economic deviations. As the world slowly exits the global pandemic state, each part of the aviation industry should be subject to analyses that confirm or contradict previous forecasts, thus helping to make correct business decisions by the relevant entities in the aviation industry. The following article is devoted to the analysis of the air cargo market. As a starting point, the article shows a general overview of the world's economy by pointing out the main variables that impact demand for air cargo and presenting forecasts on some of those. General air cargo market overview is the next subject. This part shows the latest trends connected with the general aviation market and the cargo part, outlining the general look. An overview of forecasts for the aviation market, coming from aircraft manufacturers, is the last of the analytical parts of this article, describing each entity's market outlook. Presented analyses were later used to determine trends most likely to show in coming years. The accurate description of those allowed for creating a coherent forecast of the air cargo market, with the calculation of actual cargo tonne-kilometers for oncoming years using a simple, multivariate forecasting method based on creating a historical data-driven model. The article concludes with a summary that provides an overview of the covered subjects.

PL

Mierząc wartością towarów, około jedna trzecia całego handlu międzynarodowego odbywa się drogą powietrzną. Stanowi to dużą część całego rynku transportowego, jak również globalnego PKB, odgrywając kluczową rolę w przenoszeniu produktów o dużej wartości w stosunku do ich wagi, ale jest także podstawą wysyłki nocnej i jako taka umożliwia rozwój e-commerce. Plasuje to rynek transport towarów drogą lotniczą jako zależny od ogólnych odchyleń ekonomicznych. Gdy świat powoli wychodzi z globalnej pandemii, każda część branży lotniczej powinna zostać poddana analizom, które potwierdzają lub zaprzeczają wcześniejszym prognozom, pomagając w ten sposób podejmować prawidłowe decyzje biznesowe przez odpowiednie podmioty z branży lotniczej. Poniższy artykuł poświęcony jest analizie rynku lotniczego cargo. Jako punkt wyjścia artykuł przedstawia ogólny przegląd gospodarki światowej ze wskazaniem głównych zmiennych, które mają wpływ na popyt na przewóz ładunków drogą lotniczą, a także przedstawieniem prognoz dotyczących niektórych z nich. Kolejnym punktem jest ogólny przegląd rynku lotniczego cargo. W tej części przedstawione są najnowsze trendy związane z rynkiem lotniczym, a także z częścią cargo, nakreślając ogólny wygląd. Przegląd prognoz dla rynku lotniczego, pochodzących od producentów statków powietrznych, to ostatnia z analitycznych części artykułu, opisująca perspektywy rynkowe poszczególnych podmiotów. Przedstawione analizy posłużyły później do określenia rzeczywistych trendów, które z największym prawdopodobieństwem ujawnią się w nadchodzących latach. Właściwe ich opisanie pozwoliło na stworzenie spójnej prognozy rynku ładunków lotniczych, z wyliczeniem rzeczywistych tonokilometrów cargo na nadchodzące lata za pomocą prostej metody prognozowania na podstawie wielu zmiennych opartej na stworzeniu modelu opartego na danych historycznych. Artykuł kończy się podsumowaniem, które zawiera ogólny przegląd omawianych tematów.

19

Analysis of forecasted methane concentration at the top gate of a wall ventilated by means of the “U” system. Case study

Łukaszczyk Zygmunt, Badura Henryk

Management Systems in Production Engineering

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2022

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nr 4 (30)

342--347

EN

The release of methane into the mine atmosphere poses a threat to the miners. Methane is an explosive gas at concentrations of 5-15% in air by volume and throughout the history of coal mining has been the cause of devastating explosions in mines around the world. For these reasons, in methane coal mines, the concentration of methane emitted from the coal face and the entire mine is controlled by means of a well-designed ventilation system, a system controlling the concentration of methane in the mine atmosphere and a system for methane drainage of the rock mass and goafs. The presented article concerns the forecast of the average concentration of methane on a given day, in the places of sensors located in the longwall roadways of discharge air exhausted from the longwall: up to 10 m in front of the wall and at the outlet of the roadway. Both forecasts were made using the prognostic equations on the basis of measurement data concerning the ventilation roadways of one of the longwalls at JSW SA.

20

The influence of fertilisation on the water-salt regime in the conditions of the Mugan-Salyan massif, Azerbaijan

Mustafayev Mustafa, Tukenova Zulfiya, Alimzhanova Mereke, Ashimuly Kazhybek, Mustafayev Farid

Journal of Water and Land Development

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2022

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no. 55

276--285

EN

The article presents research data on the amount of salts in the irrigated soils of the Mughan-Salyan massif, their composition, water-salt regime, and their forecast. It was found that the soils on the territory of the massif were saline to varying degrees. In general, the area of non-saline soils in the massif is 125,650 ha, mildly - 272,070 ha, moderately - 210,560 ha, highly - 125,850 ha, very highly - 109,450 ha and saline soils - 27,520 ha. The absorbed bases in the soils of the massif were studied, and it was determined that they change depending on the amount of salts as follows: in mildly saline soils, Ca - 57.82-68.31%, Mg - 25.26-36.28%, Na - 5.49-6.43%; in moderately saline soils - 56.77-65.76%, 27.03-35.58%, 7.12-7.94%, respectively; in highly saline areas - 54.05–64.75%, 24.94-43.67% and 9.19-14.42%. As you can see, the soils are mildly and moderately saline. The soils in the surveyed areas are saline to varying degrees (i.e., the average value of salts in the 0-100 cm layer of the soil varies between 0.25 and 1.00%). The biological product used in these soils contains a wide range of macro and microelements, humic acids, fulvic acids, amino acids, vitamins and enzymes that do not contain BioEcoGum mineral fertilisers. This biological product was used for the first time and one of the main goals was to study the improvement of water-physical properties of soils after its use. Therefore, the water-salt regime of the soils of the study area was studied on three experimental sites selected for the area, the number of irrigations for different plants, and their norms were determined taking into account the depth of groundwater in the soils and shown in tabular form. They are widely used in farms and these regions, taking into account the proposed irrigation norms and their quantity.