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1

Spatiotemporal relationship of temperature and precipitation over southern coasts of the Caspian Sea based on quantile regression methods

Solaimani Karim, Ahmadi Sedigheh Bararkhanpour

Acta Geophysica

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2024

|

Vol. 72, no. 2

1127--1142

EN

Temperature and precipitation are significant environmental variables that can lead to catastrophic climatic disasters. The intensity of precipitation increases with increasing temperature under humid conditions. As a result, investigating the trend and relationship between precipitation and temperature is important in a wide range of industries such as trade, agriculture, and ecological analysis. Quantile regression techniques were used in this study to determine the effect of temperature variables on different amounts of precipitation during a 36-year duration (1984-2019) in Mazandaran Province of Iran. According to the findings, heavy rainfall increased significantly in February and April while decreasing in May, June, and September. All minimum and maximum temperature measurements, however, increased significantly. Moreover, the positive and negative effects of temperature variables were higher in the upper quantiles of precipitation, so the most negative effect of the minimum temperature were identified in the northwestern regions and in the warm and cold months of the year, but the most positive effect were detected in the north. In contrast, it was revealed that the north and northwest regions, respectively, were most negatively impacted by maximum temperature and most positively impacted by heavy rainfall. Finally, in a long period, high temperatures have not shown a positive effect on precipitation, and it is different according to spatial and temporal changes.

2

Characterizing spatiotemporal properties of precipitation in the middle Mahanadi subdivision, India during 1901-2017

Sahu Ramgopal Tilakram, Verma Shashikant, Verma Mani Kant, Ahmad Ishtiyaq

Acta Geophysica

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2024

|

Vol. 72, no. 2

1143--1158

EN

Long-term historical data and their interpretation are crucial aspects of understanding any kind of variation that exists as a result of changing environmental behaviour. The focus of the study is to characterize precipitation properties in the middle subdivision of the Mahanadi River basin (MRB). An eigen-based technique, also known as the maximum loading value approach, and gridded precipitation data with a resolution of 0.25° X 0.25° are presented to analyze the spatiotemporal properties of precipitation at different timeslot intervals. The meteorological data (gridded precipitation for 117 years from 1901 to 2017) has a special “k” field for spatial and temporal modes of spatial pattern analysis, which aids in the recognition of precipitation properties. The identified characteristics of the exclusive timeslot periods have been assessed for any dispersion as a function of annual precipitation. To cross-validate the identified patterns for distinctness and pairwise comparison, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov’s D test was used. Southwest Mahanadi does not experience much variation in pattern size (± 3-5%), with a maximum variance of 39.09% during timeslot 2 (1940-1978). Similarly, the southeast Mahanadi observed a continuous increase in pattern size and was above 10% with a maximum variance of 28.53% during timeslot 3 (1979-2 017). While north-eastern Mahanadi experienced a continuous and significant decrease of > 14% of the total variance, with a maximum (42.48%) during timeslot 1 (1901-1939) and a minimum (28.14%) during timeslot 3 (1979-2017). There is no spatial pattern variability from summer to any of the timeslot intervals.

3

Assessing the variability of satellite and reanalysis rainfall products over a semiarid catchment in Tunisia

Gharnouki Ines, Aouissi Jalel, Benabdallah Sihem, Tramblay Yves

Acta Geophysica

|

2024

|

Vol. 72, no. 2

1257--1273

EN

Precipitation is a key component in hydrologic processes. It plays an important role in hydrological modeling and water resource management. However, many regions suffer from limited and data scarcity due to the lack of ground-based rain gauge networks. The main objective of this study is to evaluate other source of rainfall data such as remote sensing data (three different satellite-based precipitation products (CHIRPS, PERSIANN, and GPM) and a reanalysis (ERA5) against groundbased data, which could provide complementary rainfall information in semiarid catchment of Tunisia (Haffouz catchment), for the period between September 2000 and August 2018. These remotely sensed-data are compared for the first time with observations in a semiarid catchment in Tunisia. Twelve rain gauges and two different interpolation methods (inverse distance weight and ordinary kriging) were used to compute a set of interpolated precipitation reference fields. The evaluation was performed at daily, monthly, and yearly time scales and at different spatial scales, using several statistical metrics. The results showed that the two interpolation methods give similar precipitation estimates at the catchment scale. According to the different statistical metrics, CHIRPS showed the most satisfactory results followed by PERSIANN which performed well in terms of correlation but overestimated precipitations spatially over the catchment. GPM underestimates the precipitation considerably, but it gives a satisfactory performance temporally. ERA5 shows a very good performance at daily, monthly, and yearly timescale, but it is unable to represent the spatial variability distribution of precipitation for this catchment. This study concluded that satellite-based precipitation products or reanalysis data can be useful in semiarid regions and data-scarce catchments, and it may provide less costly alternatives for data-poor regions.

4

Application of hierarchical cluster analysis to spatiotemporal variability of monthly precipitation over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Tajbar Sapna, Tajbar Asfandiyar, Pashaie Zahra, Khorshiddoust Ali Mohammad, Rafiq Lubna

Acta Geophysica

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2024

|

Vol. 72, no. 2

1159--1174

EN

Understanding the long-term spatiotemporal variability of precipitation at the regional scale is critical for developing flood and drought control strategies and water resource management. This study assessed the spatiotemporal variability of monthly precipitation over the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan for 1998-2019 using hierarchical cluster analysis to cluster 156 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission grids. Statistical properties of clusters were calculated and the relationship of geographical features such as latitude, longitude, and altitude and statistical variables including standard deviation, maximum and minimum precipitation, and coefficient of variation (CV) with average precipitation was assessed. Findings showed that northeast parts received maximum precipitation while north and southern regions received less precipitation. Temporal analysis showed two clusters of rainy months (February, March, April, May, July, and August) and dry months (January, June, September, October, November, and December). The region was divided into two homogeneous precipitation regions. From January to April and November to December, cluster 1 occupied northern parts with maximum average precipitation while cluster 2 southern parts. From June to September, cluster 2 covered the northeast and southern parts with the highest average precipitation. During May, cluster 2 received the highest average precipitation in the northeast and southeast parts, whereas cluster 1 covered the northwest and southwest. In October, cluster 2 received maximum average precipitation covering the northeast. CV suggested higher temporal variability in cluster 2 (67.75-102.36)% than cluster 1 (65.82-99.55)%. Precipitation correlation showed that CV opposed the longitude and averages, whereas latitude and altitude demonstrated minimal correlations. These insights can assist decision-makers in devising suitable strategies to plan and control unexpected volumes of precipitation.

5

Funkcjonowanie zbiorników retencyjnych Regionalnego Zarządu Gospodarki Wodnej w Poznaniu w kontekście zmian klimatycznych i potrzeb wodnych - wyzwania i problemy eksploatacyjne na przykładzie wybranych obiektów

Wierzbicki Michał, Andrzejak Anna, Piniarska Dorota, Sobczyk Bartłomiej, Nowak Bogumił

Gospodarka Wodna

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2023

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Nr 9

32--38

PL

Zmiany klimatyczne stawiają przed gospodarką wodną nowe wyzwania. Funkcjonowanie obiektów, służących jej celom, musi uwzględniać zarówno zmiany warunków hydrologicznych, jak i zmiany potrzeb wodnych użytkowników wód i środowiska naturalnego oraz rosnącej presji ich zaspokojenia. Kiedy szczególnego znaczenia nabiera racjonalne gospodarowanie wodą, niejednokrotnie istnieje konieczność przedefiniowania celów i zadań, jakie mają one spełniać, oraz określenia nowych zasad ich funkcjonowania. W referacie przedstawiono - na wybranych przykładach - nowe wyzwania i problemy eksploatacji obiektów hydrotechnicznych RZGW w Poznaniu w zmieniających się warunkach hydrologiczno-meteorologicznych. Wykorzystano dane hydrometeorologiczne, dane dotyczące obiektów hydrotechnicznych, ich funkcjonowania oraz potrzeb wodnych. Opisano zmiany zasilania zbiorników wodnych, m.in. coraz częściej występujące niżówki hydrologiczne, skutkujące trudnościami w realizacji założonej gospodarki wodnej, oraz możliwości zaspokojenia potrzeb wodnych. Wskazano na konieczność dostosowania zbiorników do zmieniających się warunków klimatycznych. Przedstawiono również wzajemne zależności pomiędzy obiektami hydrotechnicznymi i wskazano na konieczność ich uwzględnienia w określaniu zasad gospodarowania wodą. Części wspólne tych zasad są niezwykle istotne w kontekście szerszego spojrzenia na zasoby wodne i możliwości zaspokojenia potrzeb wodnych regionu.

EN

Climate change brings new challenges for the water management to face. Functioning of the facilities it uses needs to take into account changing hydrological conditions as well as the evolution of the water users” and natural environment needs and the growing pressure to meet them. When rational water management becomes of particular importance, it sometimes gives rise to the necessity to redefine the goals and tasks it should fulfill and determine new principles of it functioning. The article, using selected examples, presents new challenges and operational problems of hydro-technical structures of the Regional Water Management Authority in Poznań in the evolving hydrological and meteorological conditions. It uses hydro-meteorological data, data on hydro-technical strictures, their functioning and water needs. The authors describe the change in water reservoir supply, increasingly frequent low water periods among them, resulting in difficulties to meet the assumed water management goals and impacting the ability to satisfy water needs. They point out to the necessity to adapt reservoirs to the changing climate conditions. They also present interdependencies between hydro-technical structures and the necessity to take them into account while determining water management principles. Common parts of these principles are of significant importance in the context of having a broader view of water resources and the possibility to satisfy water needs of the region.

6

The Effect of Microalloying (Nb, V) and Interstitial (C, N) Elements on Mechanical Properties of Microalloyed Steels

Marynowski Przemysław, Hojny Marcin, Dębiński Tomasz

Archives of Foundry Engineering

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2023

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Vol. 23, iss. 4

127--136

EN

The microalloying elements such as Nb, V are added to control the microstructure and mechanical properties of microalloyed (HSLA) steels. High chemical affinity of these elements for interstitials (N, C) results in precipitation of binary compound, nitrides and carbides and products of their mutual solubility – carbonitrides. The chemical composition of austenite, as well as the content and geometric parameters of undissolved precipitates inhibiting the growth of austenite grains is important for predicting the microstructure, and thus the mechanical properties of the material. Proper selection of the chemical composition of the steel makes it possible to achieve the required properties of the steel at the lowest possible manufacturing cost. The developed numerical model of carbonitrides precipitation process was used to simulate and predict the mechanical properties of HSLA steels. The effect of Nb and V content to change the yield strength of these steels was described. Some comparison with literature was done.

7

Jakość wód opadowych przeznaczonych do dalszego wykorzystania

Ryńska Joanna

Rynek Instalacyjny

|

2022

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Nr 12

94--98

PL

W artykule przedstawiono dotychczas stosowane sposoby podczyszczania wód opadowych przeznaczonych do retencji i dalszego zastosowania. Omówiono nowe kierunki w oczyszczaniu wód opadowych, związane z wynikami badań naukowych w Polsce i na świecie oraz z praktycznymi doświadczeniami eksploatatorów.

EN

The paper presents the methods used currently for re-treatment of stormwater intended for retention and further use. The new approach to stormwater treatment, related to both the results of scientific research in Poland and in the world, and operational practice, were discussed.

8

Wpływ ujemnej temperatury i opadów podczas procesów technologicznych na właściwości nawierzchni asfaltowej

Czyż Magdalena, Lis Maciej, Szafranko Elżbieta

Materiały Budowlane

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2022

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nr 4

82--85

PL

W artykule przedstawiono wpływ ujemnej temperatury i opadów reprezentujących warunki zimowe na właściwości nawierzchni wykonywanej podczas ich występowania. W celu uchwycenia granicznych warunków atmosferycznych, po przekroczeniu których właściwości nawierzchni znacznie odbiegają od wymaganych, wyodrębniono cztery odcinki, na których wykonywano podbudowę z betonu asfaltowego AC22P oraz warstwę wiążącą z betonu asfaltowego AC16W, w różnych warunkach atmosferycznych. W artykule opisano wady nawierzchni powstałe na skutek wykonywania robót w nieodpowiednich warunkach pogodowych.

EN

The article presents the impact of adverse weather conditions occurring in winter on the properties of the pavement performed during such winter conditions. In order to try to capture the boundary atmospheric conditions, beyond which the properties of the pavement significantly differ from the required ones, four sections were distinguished on which the AC22P asphalt concrete foundation and the AC16W asphalt concrete binding layer were made, in various weather conditions. The article the surface defects caused by the execution of works in inappropriate weather conditions were demonstrated.

9

Responses of Physiological Characteristics of Annual C4 Herbs to Precipitation and Wind Changes in Semi-Arid Sandy Grassland, Northern China

Sun Shanshan, Liu Xinping, He Yuhui, Lv Peng, Chelmeg, Zhang Lamei, Wei Shuilian

Polish Journal of Ecology

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2020

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Vol. 68, nr 2

121--131

EN

The effects of changing precipitation and wind regimes on plant physiology are increasingly drawing attention of eco-physiologists. In the manipulative experiment we studied the physiological mechanisms of annual C4 herbs in the semi-arid sandy land to understand the functional significance of their traits and responses to the changing environment, grass Setaria viridis, characterized by the moderate stem water content and low leaf water content, more effectively absorbed light energy and utilized water resources than two dominant dicot plants, Salsola collina and Bassia dasyphylla. Precipitation increase and wind reduction promoted photosynthesis of the three C4 herbaceous plants, and their photosynthetic rates were higher in the end of July than that in August. Precipitation increase and the 20% reduction in wind velocity could also enhance their stomatal conductance and transpiration rate. The transpiration rate was consistent with the change in stomatal conductance, exhibiting highly positive correlation. The interactive effects of precipitation increase and wind velocity reduction made great changes in photosynthetic rate of the S. collina, lifted the photosynthetic rate and water use efficiency of the S. viridis. Our results suggest that the C4 herbs have shown some degree of stress resistance, and they are able to acclimate better to frangible environment of semi-arid sandy land. Furthermore, the changing environments heighten photosynthesis of the C4 herbs, which is pretty important to strength the arid plant stress resistance, then contributed to the ecosystem community production and dry matter accumulation.

10

Wpływ plam słonecznych na opady w Polsce

Chmielewska Iwona, Dołżyk-Szypcio Katarzyna, Szypcio Zenon

Magazyn Autostrady

|

2020

|

Nr 3

58--64

PL

W artykule pokazano, że na znacznym obszarze Polski sumaryczny opad roczny zależy od liczby plam słonecznych. Wystąpienie powodzi i intensywnych opadów jest bardziej prawdopodobne w okresach małej aktywności słońca niż dużej. Fakt ten może być wykorzystany przy planowaniu budowy dróg i mostów.

EN

The article demonstrates that in a significant area in Poland the total annual precipitation depends on the number of sunspots. Floods and heavy rainfall are more likely during the periods of low rather than high sun activity. This fact can be used when planning the construction of roads and bridges.

11

On the go-and-stop motion of the discontinuous precipitation front

Chronowski M., Zięba P.

Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering

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2020

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Vol. 20, no. 2

73--79

EN

The growth of lamellar structure during discontinuous precipitation occurs frequently by so-called go-and-stop fashion. The results of simulation combined with the changes of Cahn’s parameter C revealed two types of such motion. The process takes place in the successive stages which can be distinguished judging from the value of C parameter. For lower values of linear growth rate (v = 10÷20 nm/s) and smaller α lamella thickness (100÷200 nm), the full cycle with relaxation takes 4–6 s. The faster movement of the reaction front (v = 30 nm/s) resulted in dramatic decrease of the full cycle to τtotal = 0.8 s. The same behavior is observed if the α lamella thickness increases beyond 200 nm at constant v equal to 10 nm/s. Both predicted types of go-and-stop motion can experimentally be observed during growth or dissolution of discontinuous precipitates. What is the reason that particular type prevails is unknown, and this is invitation for further studies especially using high-resolution transmission electron microscope operating in in situ mode.

12

Analysis of distribution of precipitation duration and amounts in Legnica in the period of 1966–2015

Jakubczyk Teresa

Journal of Water and Land Development

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2019

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no. 41

69--76

EN

The paper presents the results of analysis of duration of precipitation sequences and the amounts of precipitation in individual sequences in Legnica. The study was aimed at an analysis of potential trends and regularities in atmospheric precipitations over the period of 1966–2015. On their basis a prediction attempt was made for trends in subsequent years. The analysis was made by fitting data to suitable distributions – the Weibull distribution for diurnal sums in sequences and the Pascal distribution for sequence durations, and then by analysing the variation of the particular indices such the mean value, variance and quartiles. The analysis was performed for five six-week periods in a year, from spring to late autumn, analysed in consecutive five-year periods. The trends of the analysed indices, observed over the fifty-year period, are not statistically significant, which indicates stability of precipitation conditions over the last half-century.

PL

W pracy przedstawiono wyniki analiz rozkładów długości trwania sekwencji opadowych oraz wielkości opadów w poszczególnych sekwencjach w Legnicy. Badania miały na celu przeprowadzenie analizy ewentualnych tendencji i regularności w opadach atmosferycznych w okresie 1966–2015. Na ich podstawie podjęto próbę predykcji dla tendencji w kolejnych latach. Analizę wykonano przez dopasowanie do danych odpowiednich rozkładów – rozkładu Weibulla do sum dobowych w sekwencjach oraz rozkładu Pascala do długości sekwencji, a następnie przez zbadanie zmienności poszczególnych wskaźników, takich jak średnia, wariancja i kwartyle. Analiza została przeprowadzona w odniesieniu do pięciu sześciotygodniowych okresów w ciągu roku od wczesnej wiosny do późnej jesieni, rozpatrywanych w kolejnych pięcioleciach. Tendencje badanych wskaźników zaobserwowane na przestrzeni pięćdziesięciolecia nie są istotne statystycznie, co świadczy o stabilności zjawiska opadów w ostatnim pięćdziesięcioleciu.

13

Emporal and spatial variability of rainfall in modelling of stormwater outflows

Nowogoński Ireneusz

Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports

|

2019

|

Vol. 29, no. 4

267--278

EN

The article presents issues related to modeling of the rainfall-runoff phenomenon. As factors influencing the simulation results, the velocity and direction of precipitation relative to the drainage basin were indicated. The possibility of underestimating the crosssections of rainwater channels as a result of overlapping rain wave directions and the dominant flow direction in the rainwater channel network was pointed out. The research results to date indicate a reduction in the symptoms of this phenomenon as the complexity of the channel network increases. The final verification was based on the actual catchment. Calculations were made using the Epa SWMM 5.1.013 software. The results are presented in a graphic form to illustrate the variability of stormwater outflow.

14

The influence of temperature on the moisture potential in sod-podzolic soil in the autumn and winter periods of the year

Muromtsev Nikolay, Mazhayskiy Yury, Semenov Nikolay, Anisimov Kirill, Vityazev Viktor, Chernikova Olga

Budownictwo o Zoptymalizowanym Potencjale Energetycznym

|

2019

|

Vol. 8 Nr 2

53--61

EN

The formation features of the potential and temperature dynamics at different levels of soil profile are revealed. The influence of soil temperature in the range of its high positive values on the dynamics of soil moisture potential is established. All lowering of the moisture potential occurs due to an increase in the moisture content. The increase in its content occurs due to precipitation and by pulling moisture from the underlying layers. In winter and in periods with negative temperatures, the moisture content is effected by diffusion of vaporous moisture, and in thawed soil, in liquid form.

PL

Opisano dynamikę potencjału wilgotności i temperatury na różnych poziomach profilu glebowego. Ustalono wpływ temperatury gleby w zakresie jej wysokich dodatnich wartości na dynamikę potencjału jej wilgotności. Wzrost wilgotności występuje w związku z opadami atmosferycznymi i poprzez odciąganie wilgoci z warstw leżących poniżej. W okresie zimowym oraz w okresach ujemnych temperatur występuje dyfuzja pary wodnej, a przy dodatnich temperaturach przepływ wody.

15

Nie bójmy się deszczu

Olejniczak K.

Zieleń Miejska

|

2018

|

Nr 7-8

14

PL

Zarządzanie wodami opadowymi stanowi jedno z największych wyzwań stojących przed współczesnymi miastami. Coraz częściej dochodzi do gwałtownych zjawisk pogodowych, takich jak ulewne deszcze. O tym, jak radzić sobie z tym zjawiskiem rozmawiano w Gniewie podczas 13. Konferencji Wody Opadowe – aspekty prawne, ekonomiczne i techniczne.

16

Reżim opadów i przepływów w zlewni rzeki Zagożdżonki po profile Płachty Stare i Czarna

Hejduk A., Kaznowska E., Hejduk L., Gładecki J.

Woda-Środowisko-Obszary Wiejskie

|

2018

|

T. 18, z. 1

37--55

PL

Celem pracy jest ocena reżimu opadów i przepływów w okresie 2011–2015 na tle lat 1963–2015 (opady) i 1991–2015 (przepływy) w zlewni rzeki Zagożdżonki po profile Płachty Stare i Czarna. Okres badawczy obejmuje realizację w wyżej wymienionej zlewni dwóch projektów badawczych finansowanych przez Narodowe Centrum Nauki dotyczących wezbrań zimowych i niżówek. Charakterystyki opadów dokonano na podstawie analizy sum dobowych, miesięcznych, półrocznych i rocznych. Do oceny zmienności sum opadów miesięcznych i rocznych zastosowano kryterium KACZOROWSKIEJ [1962]. Wartości przepływów dobowych z wielolecia, odnotowanych w profilach pomiarowych Płachty Stare (1963–2015) i Czarna (1991–2015) stanowiły podstawę charakterystyki hydrologicznej. Stosując kryterium hydrologiczne zaproponowane przez OZGĘ-ZIELIŃSKĄ [1990], na hydrogramach przepływów wyodrębniono niżówki i wezbrania. Za dolną granicę wezbrania przyjęto przepływ NWQ (najniższy z maksymalnych przepływów rocznych), zaś za granicę niżówek przyjęto przepływ SNQ (średni z najniższych przepływów rocznych). Charakterystyki hydrologiczne lat 2011– 2015 odniesiono do wielolecia 1963–2015.

EN

The aim of the study was to evaluate precipitation and hydrological conditions in the period 2011–2015 against the background of long term data collected in the Zagożdżonka River catchment. Precipitation characteristics are based on the analysis of daily, monthly, semi-annual and annual totals. The criterion presented by KACZOROWSKA [1962] was used to evaluate the variability of monthly and yearly precipitation totals. Hydrological characteristic was based on daily flows data recorded in Płachty Stare (1963–2015) and Czarna (1992–2015) gauging station. Two extreme phenomena as flood and drought were identified using daily hydrograph. The threshold of SNQ (mean of the lowest annual flows) was used for flood identification, as well as the threshold of NWQ flow (the lowest of the highest annual flows) was used to identify droughts.

17

The September 2017 flood in Elbląg (Poland) in perspective

Konieczny R., Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

|

2018

|

Vol. 6, Iss. 2

67--78

EN

On the morning of 18 September 2017, the center of the city of Elbląg in northern Poland was inundated by the rapidly rising waters of the Kumiela River, resulting in considerable damage and chaos in the city. The present paper provides information about this event, which was caused by intense precipitation lasting two days. We put this individual event in perspective by examining the climate track in the observation and projection of flood hazard through analyzing changes in temperature, precipitation and intense precipitation. We also examine the non-climatic factors of flood risk, such as spatial development and river regulation. Further, we pose the question of whether actions aimed at flood risk reduction, predominantly by way of structural defenses in the catchment of the Kumiela River, really reduce the flood risk in Elbląg. We also offer more general remarks pertaining to flood risk reduction in Poland, primarily based on technical measures, and we unveil the shortcomings of the current flood risk management system in Poland. In the social consciousness, the structural flood defense strategy has become the norm of thinking in terms of methods for reducing the effects of floods in Poland, but this does not always contribute to reducing flood damage either locally or nationally. We refer to some good examples of preparedness for urban inundations caused by heavy precipitation in other cities.

18

Causes of periodical rainfall distribution and long-term forecast of precipitation for Lankaran, Azerbaijan

Mammadov A., Rajabov R., Casanova N.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

|

2018

|

Vol. 6, Iss. 2

39--43

EN

Irregular rainfall distribution is receiving considerable attention. The amount of rainfall for one region can account for 500-600 mm, sometimes 1000 mm. For example, in the year 1985, Zagtala in Azerbaijan received 716 mm of rainfall, while in 1988, 2004 and 2008 - 1151, 1306 and 661 mm, respectively, were measured. In Lankaran 2061 mm were measured in 1982 and 470 mm in 1999. Generally, rainfall distribution differs across the Republic of Azerbaijan. In this study, the physical side of such variations was clarified. In relation to that, the movement speed of the atmosphere in regard of the rotation of the Earth was analyzed, showing that the difference in rainfall distribution, according to the time structure, is connected to the direction change of the atmospheric movement. Generally, the reasons for atmospheric movements cannot be identified as the rotation movement of the earth, mainly because both environments show different activities. While the processes happening in the atmosphere often change, influenced by the pressure gradient, the rotation movement of the earth is more stationary. We also evaluated the rainfall forecast method for the region Lankaran. Taking into account its simplicity, the Shuster method was used. Observation data was divided into stationary and casual elements. Selection of periodicals was determined by separation of long term meteorological data into harmonic functions. By accepting the variation, the coefficient casual item was added.

19

Spatio-temporal variation of rainfall over Bihar State, India

Warwade P., Tiwari S., Ranjan S., Chandniha S. K., Adamowski J.

Journal of Water and Land Development

|

2018

|

no. 36

183--197

EN

This study detected, for the first time, the long term annual and seasonal rainfall trends over Bihar state, India, between 1901 and 2002. The shift change point was identified with the cumulative deviation test (cumulative sum – CUSUM), and linear regression. After the shift change point was detected, the time series was subdivided into two groups: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 10.3 was used to evaluate the spatial distribution of the trends. It was found that annual and monsoon rainfall trends decreased significantly; no significant trends were observed in pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall. The average decline in rainfall rate was –2.17 mm·year–1 and –2.13 mm·year–1 for the annual and monsoon periods. The probable change point was 1956. The number of negative extreme events were higher in the later period (1957–2002) than the earlier period (1901–1956).

PL

W badaniach prezentowanych w niniejszej pracy wykryto po raz pierwszy długookresowe trendy rocznych i sezonowych wartości opadów w indyjskim stanie Bihar w latach 1901–2002. Stosując kumulatywny test odchyleń (CUSUM – ang. cumulative deviation test) i regresję liniową zidentyfikowano punkt zwrotny. Następnie serie czasowe zostały podzielone na dwie grupy: przed i po punkcie zwrotnym. Do oceny przestrzennego rozkładu trendów zastosowano program Arc-Map 10.3. Stwierdzono, że trendy rocznych i monsunowych opadów znacząco malały. Nie zaobserwowano istotnych trendów w odniesieniu do opadów przed monsunem, po monsunie i w okresie zimowym. Średnie zmniejszenie ilości opadów wynosiło 2,17 mm·rok–1 i 2,13 mm ·rok–1 odpowiednio dla opadów rocznych i monsunowych. Prawdopodobnym punktem zwrotnym był rok 1956. Liczba skrajnych negatywnych zjawisk była większa w okresie 1957–2002 niż w okresie 1901–1956.

20

Analysis of future climate scenarios and their impact on agriculture in eastern Arkansas, United States

Magugu J. W., Feng S., Huang Q., Zhang Y., West G. H.

Journal of Water and Land Development

|

2018

|

no. 37

97--112

EN

Impact of climate change on crop growth is dynamic and difficult to quantify due to heterogeneity of the associated effects and their interactions within the Earth system. The main objective of this study is to establish how future climate change might affect agriculture, through an assessment of temperature and precipitation driven parameters. These include percentage number of rainy days with extreme precipitation, percentage of extreme precipitation relative to wet days, first fall frost days, last spring frost days, growing degree days, growing season length and the total precipitation. Results show modest increase in total precipitation with a slight increase in extreme precipitation, representing up to 2.2% increase by 2060 under representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. There would be late first fall frost days, early last spring frost days and increased growing season length by up to 2 weeks in 2060. The growing degree days are projected to increase under all scenarios for all crops, with cotton showing the largest increase of up to 37% relative to the baseline period.

PL

Wpływ zmian klimatu na wzrost upraw jest dynamiczny i trudny do ilościowej oceny z powodu różnorodności powiązanych efektów i ich interakcji w całym systemie Ziemi. Głównym celem badań prezentowanych w niniejszej pracy było ustalenie, jak zmiany klimatu w przyszłości mogą wpłynąć na rolnictwo, na podstawie oceny parametrów związanych z temperaturą i opadami. Analizowano następujące parametry: udział (w %) dni deszczowych z ekstremalnym opadem, udział ekstremalnych opadów w stosunku do opadów ogółem, pierwsze jesienne dni z mrozem, ostatnie wiosenne dni z mrozem, stopniodni w sezonie wegetacyjnym, długość sezonu wegetacyjnego, i sumę opadów. Wyniki wykazują umiarkowany wzrost całkowitych opadów i niewielki wzrost opadów ekstremalnych – do 2,2% do roku 2060 wg scenariusza Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5). W 2060 roku pierwsze jesienne dni z mrozem wystąpią później, ostatnie wiosenne dni z mrozem wystąpią wcześniej, a sezon wegetacyjny wydłuży się o ok. 2 tygodnie. Zgodnie ze wszystkimi scenariuszami przewiduje się, że liczba stopniodni w sezonie wegetacyjnym zwiększy się dla wszystkich upraw, a największy przyrost (maksymalnie o 37%) w stosunku do okresu bazowego prognozuje się dla upraw bawełny.