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1

Waterway Capacity Enhancement through Traffic Flow Simulation: A Case Study of the Policki Canal Passing Lane

Gucma Lucjan, Gralak Rafał, Kundakçi Burak

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2025

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Vol. 19 No. 4

1195--1201

EN

This paper presents a simulation study of marine traffic optimization along the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway, with a particular focus on the proposed implementation of an additional passing lane in the Policki Canal. Using a microscopic simulation model based on the Monte Carlo method, the study evaluates three traffic scenarios for 2022 and beyond 2025 under different infrastructure development conditions. The results highlight the operational and economic benefits of the proposed lane, including reduced vessel delays and associated congestion costs. The results offer strategic insight into future maritime infrastructure planning in the region.

2

Towards Green Ferry Corridors in the Adriatic Sea – Integrating Monte Carlo Simulations into Life Cycle Costing Scheme for Methanol

Koričan Marija, Sjerić Momir, Nikolić Danilo, Fan Ailong, Vladimir Nikola

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2025

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Vol. 19 No. 4

1295--1304

EN

The maritime transport sector is essential to global trade, handling a large share of international trade volume, but its reliance on fossil fuels raises significant environmental and economic concerns. The transition to greener options is slow, with 98.8% of the fleet still using fossil fuel, while the research into economic performance of this transition often overlooks fuel price volatility, a critical factor influenced by global events which have caused significant fuel price fluctuations. This paper introduces a model which incorporates fuel price volatility into lifecycle cost assessments (LCCA) on an example of a ferry connecting the Croatian and Italian shores of the Adriatic Sea. A comparison of diesel- and methanol-powered systems is provided, using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate economic sustainability under volatile fuel prices. Diesel prices showed a consistently symmetrical and normal distribution across all simulations, indicating a stable price range, while methanol prices demonstrated more volatility. The LCCA results, which included the simulated fuel prices, showed that methanol-powered systems despite greater price volatility, show lower overall costs through different carbon taxation scenarios.

3

Life cycle cost analysis in investment projects – examination of case studies and risk mitigation with Monte Carlo simulation

Wieke Stefan

Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska

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2025

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Vol. 34, No. 1

3--18

EN

This work focuses on life cycle cost (LCC) analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure and recommends strategies to mitigate the uncertainties and risks involved using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It deals with the impact of input data and predicting the future development of input data on the results of the LCC analysis and discusses MCS for risk mitigation. Seven case studies for investments in Germany’s natural gas infrastructure are analyzed. In addition to the executed case studies, a case study from a scientific journal is included. The case studies were conducted between 2005 and 2015. Evaluation with real historical input data shows that the results of an LCC analysis depend on the reliability of input data and predictions on their development. The retrospective view shows that the best options are not always identified. Therefore, the results need to be validated using risk-mitigation methods, such as MCS. The executed case studies reflect the opinions of experts. This work shows how risk is mitigated through MCS while focusing on LCC analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure; however, the proposed risk mitigation with MCS can be adopted for other investment projects comprising capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX), for example, in construction, machines and other fields.

4

Uwarunkowania i metody oceny ekonomiczno-finansowo-efektywnościowej wdrażania małych reaktorów modułowych w Polsce

Krysiak Zbigniew

Postępy Techniki Jądrowej

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2025

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z. 1

12--21

PL

W niniejszym opracowaniu przedstawiono metody pomiaru i efektywność inwestycji jądrowych w reaktory typu SMR. Reaktory jądrowe mają przewagę pod względem oferowania niższych cen energii niż te ze źródeł fotowoltaicznych lub farm wiatrowych. Ponadto w przeciwieństwie do farm fotowoltaicznych i wiatrowych elektrownie jądrowe są stabilnym źródłem energii, co redukuje ryzyko niewydolności systemu gospodarczego. W prezentowanej analizie badań literaturowych wykazano, że reaktory typu HTR (High-Temperature Reactor – Wysokotemperaturowy reaktor) wytwarzają najniższe wartości LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity), czyli jednostkowe niższe koszty produkcji energii elektrycznej niż inne SMR-y, a wartość bieżąca netto NPV (Net Present Value) takich projektów jest w pewnych przypadkach dodatnia w przeciwieństwie do innych rodzajów SMR-ów. Fakt ten wskazuje na duży perspektywiczny potencjał polskiego reaktora POLA-HTGR. Stosowanie symulacji Monte Carlo tworzy wielowymiarowy zestaw informacji istotnych do podejmowania dobrych decyzji w zakresie modelowania oceny efektywności, modelu finansowania i zarządzania inwestycją w SMR-y od początku do jej zamknięcia. W artykule zaprezentowano modele oceny kosztów produkcji reaktorów SMR w oparciu o teorię kosztów produkcji w kontekście ekonomii skali i krzywej uczenia się z wykorzystaniem symulacji Monte Carlo. W podsumowaniu wskazano na potrzebę weryfikacji dotychczas wykorzystywanych metod oceny ekonomiczno-finansowo-efektywnościowej, gdyż obecnie stosowane wykazują dużą rozbieżność w stosunku do danych oferowanych przez producentów. Studia najnowszych opracowań w literaturze przedmiotu z okresu 2020-2025 wskazują na duże potrzeby tworzenia nowych rozwiązań w zakresie oceny ekonomiczno-finansowo-efektywnościowej inwestycji w SMR-y, co wymaga uzupełnienia o zsynchronizowane działania i badania w zakresie tworzenia odpowiednich modeli finansowania inwestycji, modeli zarządzania w ogóle, w tym zarządzania różnymi rodzajami ryzyka oraz zaangażowania podmiotów gospodarczych i gospodarstw domowych w struktury właścicielskie SMR-ów.

EN

This paper presents the methods of measuring and efficiency of nuclear investments in SMR reactors. Nuclear reactors have an advantage in terms of offering lower energy prices than those from photovoltaic sources or wind farms. Moreover, unlike photovoltaic and wind farms, nuclear power plants are a stable source of energy, which reduces the risk of economic system failure. The analysis of literature studies has shown that HTR (High-Temperature Reactor) reactors provide the lowest LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity) values, i.e. lower energy production costs than other SMRs, and the NPV (Net Present Value) of such projects is in some cases positive, unlike other types of SMRs. This fact indicates a large prospective potential of the Polish POLA-HTGR reactor. The use of Monte Carlo simulation creates a multidimensional set of information essential for making good decisions in the field of modeling the efficiency assessment, financing model and management of the SMRs investment from the beginning to its closure. The paper presents models for assessing the production costs of SMR reactors based on the theory of production costs in the context of economies of scale and the learning curve using Monte Carlo simulation. In conclusion, we stated there is a need to verify the previously used methods of economic, financial and efficiency assessment, because the currently used ones show a large discrepancy in relation to the data offered by producers. Analysis of the latest papers on SMR made in the period 2020-2025 indicate a large need to create new solutions in the field of economic, financial and efficiency assessment of investments in SMRs, which requires supplementation with synchronized activities and research in the field of creating appropriate investment financing models, management models in general, including the management of various types of risk and the involvement of economic entities and households in the ownership structures of SMRs.

5

On correction factors for profile measurements with small solid state detectors and with small ionization chambers

Poudel Suresh, Kulshreshtha Asita, Zakaria Golam Abu, Hartmann Günther H.

Polish Journal of Medical Physics and Engineering

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2025

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Vol. 31, Iss. 1

51--61

EN

Introduction: Measured profiles, which are crucial to treatment planning system commissioning, are generally affected by averaging effect linked to the size of sensitive volume of detectors used. Such averaging leads to deviation from the true profiles in water even when small field detectors are employed. In order to have access to profile data which are free from the influence of the measuring device, a guidance is required, on when and how much correction is required for a detector in use. Material and methods: Profile correction factors were determined as the ratio between true profiles in water and associated measured profiles, both as a function of off-axis distance. The identical free air profile is used to simulate measurement and to generate ‘measured’ profiles at different depths in water. The MC generated profiles in water without the detector were taken as true profiles. Based on such MC generated profile results, detector specific correction factors were determined. Additionally, such factors were approximated by an analytical function using a fit procedure for the function parameters. Optimized parameters were systematically compiled depending on measuring conditions such as beam size, depths in water for detectors-pinpoint, pinpoint 3D, microSilicon and microDiamond. Results: The method to generate a common dataset of true profiles in water was successful. Also, measured and simulated profiles well agree for all measuring conditions. In addition, correction factors, as well as approximated correction functions were derived. Application of analytical correction functions to measured profiles for given conditions, well reproduced true profiles with the detector being absent. Conclusions: The MC method to derive correction factors for profile measurements is feasible for all detectors used in this study. Such correction factors can be well approximated by a simple analytical function. It is recommended that ionization chamber measured profiles generally need correction while solid state detectors measured profiles fairly approach the true profiles in water.

6

Wpływ statystyk cech materiałowych i geometrycznych na losową nośność przy wyboczeniu stalowych prętów ściskanych o dwuteowym, bisymetrycznym przekroju walcowanym

Stachura Zbigniew, Giżejowski Marian

Inżynieria i Budownictwo

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2025

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R. 81, nr 1

28--35

PL

Oceniono nośność stalowych prętów ściskanych o bisymetrycznych przekrojach dwuteowych, wąsko- i szerokostopowych. Pominięto imperfekcje materiałowe (naprężenia własne) i geometryczne (wstępne wygięcie). Uwzględniono losową zmienność charakterystyk przekroju i cech mechanicznych stali. Wykonano szereg symulacji Monte Carlo losowej nośności pręta ściskanego, biorąc pod uwagę współczesne polskie oraz europejskie dane statystyczne. Podano wnioski i zalecenia praktyczne w nawiązaniu do normy PN-EN 1993-1-1:2006.

EN

The buckling resistance of steel elements in compression was evaluated in this paper. Members were made of bisymmetric double-tee rolled sections of narrow and wide flanges. The effects of residual stresses and geometric bow imperfections is not taken into account. The randomness of cross-section properties and mechanical properties of steel is taken into consideration. A number of Monte Carlo simulations of the random buckling resistance of steel elements in compression were performed taking into consideration the contemporary Polish and European statistical data. Conclusions and practical recommendations are presented with reference to PN-EN 1993-1-1:2006.

7

Potencjał reaktorów jądrowych HTGR w zwiększaniu efektywności ekonomicznej inwestycji w sektorze energetycznym

Krysiak Zbigniew

Energetyka

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2025

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nr 5

320--329

PL

W artykule przedstawiono różne podejścia do oceny efektywności inwestycji jądrowych w reaktory typu SMR, w tym w szczególności HTGR. Reaktory jądrowe posiadają przewagę pod względem oferowania niższych cen energii niż te ze źródeł fotowoltaicznych lub farm wiatrowych. Ponadto w przeciwieństwie do farm fotowoltaicznych i wiatrowych elektrownie jądrowe są stabilnym źródłem energii, co redukuje ryzyko niewydolności systemu gospodarczego. W prezentowanych badaniach wykazano, że reaktory typu HTR charakteryzują się najniższymi wartościami LCOE, zapewniając niższe koszty produkcji energii, a NPV takich projektów jest w pewnych przypadkach dodatnia w przeciwieństwie do innych rodzajów SMR-ów. Fakty te wskazują na wysoki perspektywiczny potencjał polskiego reaktora POLA-HTGR. W badaniu wykazano, że wariancja szacowanych kosztów inwestycji w SMR-y jest bardzo wysoka, co tworzy wyzwanie dla poszukiwania dokładniejszych metod modelowania kosztów produkcji SMR-ów, w czym może pomóc teoria kosztów produkcji, w której zwiększanie skali produkcji SMR-ów w wyniku krzywej uczenia się pozwoli na bardziej precyzyjne estymowanie kosztów. W artykule przedstawiono także, jak modernizacja istniejących elektrowni konwencjonalnych przy pomocy reaktorów HTR zmniejsza koszty produkcji energii, a tym samym i ceny energii dla odbiorców energii.

EN

This paper presents different approaches to assessing the efficiency of nuclear investments in SMR reactors, including HTGR, in-particular. Nuclear reactors have an advantage in terms of offering lower energy prices than those from photovoltaic sources or wind farms. Moreover, unlike photovoltaic and wind farms, nuclear power plants are a stable source of energy, which reduces the risk of economic system failure. The presented studies have shown that HTR reactors are characterized by the lowest LCOE values, providing lower energy production costs, and the NPV of such projects is in some cases added, unlike other types of SMRs. These facts indicate a high prospective potential of the Polish POLA-HTGR reactor. The study has shown that the variance of estimated SMR investment costs is very high, which creates a challenge for searching for more accurate modeling of SMR production costs, which can be supported by the production cost theory, in which increasing the scale of SMR production as-a-result of the learning curve will allow for more precise cost estimation. The paper also presents how the modernization of existing conventional power plants using HTR reactors reduces the costs of energy production and thus the prices for energy consumers.

8

Degradation Data Self-Analysis layer for integrated maintenance activities

Szpytko Janusz, Duarte Yorlandys Salgado

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2024

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Vol. 18 No. 3

601--609

EN

Reliability-oriented approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is a well-established methodology for coordinating maintenance activities of any technical system. Usually, coordination is conducted using holistic performance indicators, which are obtained from the convolution between the stochastic system availability and the system service required in a time horizon of t. Specifically, the system stochastic availability modeling is composed of the degradation process due to the system operation and the planning of the maintenance activities needed to keep the system operating at the desired standards. In the case of the degradation modeling process, given its random nature, it is addressed with predictions, which in practice, consist of generating random samples of the stochastic degradation processes from probability distributions, and the parameterization is usually estimated by fitting the distributions to historical degradation data for each technical component considered. Crucial to forecasting accurate performance indicators is the use of up-to-date information, i.e., the self-update of historical degradation data. In this paper, to address accurate performance indicators, we propose using the machine learning approach to update the adaptable model layers affected by changes in the degradation data. The paper's case study is an overhead crane system of a hot rolling mill process in a steel plant, which operates under hazardous conditions and continuously. We focus on overhead cranes because they are critical components of production processes. The paper's subject is validating the performance of a self-analysis layer, which processes the degradation data of the analyzed technical devices. The engineering solution ensures well-processed inputs for the problem of coordination of maintenance activities of overhead cranes, which is the object of the study of this research.

9

Potencjał wdrożenia rozwiązania DSM dla gospodarstw domowych w Polsce

Stahl Wiktoria

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2024

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R. 100, nr 7

271--275

PL

Poniższy artykuł prezentuje potencjał realizacji rozwiązania DSM dla odbiorców końcowych jakimi są gospodarstwa domowe. W ramach analizy przeprowadzono proces ankietyzacji oraz przygotowano model ekonometryczny, uwzględniający czynniki wpływające na ilość zaoszczędzonej energii przez gospodarstwa domowe w ramach realizacji rozwiązania DSM. Przeprowadzono także symulację Monte Carlo w celu zaprognozowania potencjalnych efektów realizacji DSM w analizowanym przypadku.

EN

The following article presents the potential of implementing the DSM solution for end users, such as households. As part of the analysis, a survey process was carried out and an econometric model was prepared, taking into account factors affecting the amount of energy saved by households as part of the implementation of the DSM solution. A Monte Carlo simulation was also performed to predict the potential effects of DSM implementation in the analyzed case.

10

Monte Carlo dosimetry for BEBIG Cobalt-60 brachytherapy source with gynecological applicator in the presence of inhomogeneities

Moradi Farhad, Sani Siti Fairus Abdul, Mahyuddin Azman, Ung Ngie Min, Bradley David Andrew, Almugren Kholoud, Rashid Hairul Azhar Abdul

Polish Journal of Medical Physics and Engineering

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2024

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Vol. 30, Iss. 3

145--151

EN

Introduction: High-dose-rate (HDR) 60Co brachytherapy necessitates accurate dose calculations to minimize normal tissue toxicity and late malignancy risks. Conventionally, the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group 43 (TG-43) formalism, utilizing table-based dose superposition, has been employed for dose calculations, overlooking tissue inhomogeneity effects. Material and methods: This study focuses on characterizing the high-dose-rate BEBIG 60Co brachytherapy source, in combination with a gynecological applicator, using Monte Carlo simulations. The investigation is based on the model of the modified BEBIG 60Co source (Co0.A86) implemented at the University of Malaya Medical Center. Dosimetric properties are evaluated according to AAPM TG-43 formalism, with validation against existing published data. Results: Our investigation presents comprehensive MC dosimetric properties of the high-dose-rate BEBIG 60Co brachytherapy source, highlighting its accuracy in dose calculations compared to established data. The study also examined the impact of the applicator on depth dose calculations within a Krieger phantom and explored the influence of various tissue inhomogeneities on the depth dose. Conclusions: Our findings revealed that the applicator had a relatively minimal effect on the delivered dose, with only marginal differences observed. Furthermore, we investigated the depth doses along the central axis of the applicator, within a segment characterized by various tissue inhomogeneities where dose differences of up to 12% were observed, with the lowest and highest doses recorded within bone and adipose tissues, respectively. This study underscores the valuable role of MC simulations in estimating doses at locations where physical measurements are unfeasible, such as the intra-uterine tube surface, as well as in scenarios featuring tissue inhomogeneities.

11

A study on “position-energy” response correction method based on monolithic crystal coupled SiPM array

Li Haoxuan, Wang Lei, Lu Wei, Feng Penglei, Zou Kefeng, Peng Jing, Wang Zexi

Nukleonika

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2024

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Vol. 69, No. 3

169--176

EN

The intrinsic characteristics of the monolithic crystal detector are spatially inconsistent, which leads to the position dependence of the detector on the energy response of the γ-ray as well as the peak shift of the response spectrum of the detector, that is, the “position-energy” shift. The “position-energy” shift will cause the energy resolution of the detector to deteriorate and affect the energy linearity of the detector. Thus, a crucial challenge in enhancing the position consistency of detector energy response, improving energy resolution, and ensuring accurate isotope identifi cation is the reduction or elimination of this “position-energy” offset. The “position-energy” response correction method is proposed in this paper to improve the position consistency of detector energy response. Firstly, Monte Carlo simulation is used to model monolithic LaBr3(Ce) crystal detectors of different sizes. Secondly, the effective detection region of the detector model is evenly divided into 25 blocks, then the spectral peak position of each incident region is extracted, and the spectral peak correction function matrix of 25 incident regions and the center position is established. Finally, 25 incident regional peaks are modifi ed according to the modifi ed function matrix, so that the spectral peaks in each region are consistent with the peaks in the center, and the modifi ed spectral responses of the detector are obtained. The simulation results show that this method can effectively solve the “position-energy” migration problem of monolithic crystal detectors of different sizes and improve the peak consistency of each detector region. The energy resolution of the 662 keV characteristic peak of the Cs-137 point source can be improved from 4.5% to 3.9%, and the linear deviation of energy can be reduced from 2.1% to 1.2%.

12

Managing risk and uncertainty in machine replacement decisions using Real Options Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Momani Amer, Khrais Samir, Almahmood Ro’a

Management Systems in Production Engineering

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2024

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nr 3 (32)

326--338

EN

The present research discusses the application of risk management tools and Real Option Analysis (ROA) to assess and quantify managerial flexibility in machine replacement decisions under uncertain conditions. Different management configurations are used for the real options approach: options to execute, options to delay, and options to cancel. This reflects the uncertainty inherent to each stage of planning. Uncertainties such as future demand and life-cycle costs are implemented in the model as probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to deal with such uncertainties and to facilitate experimental trials. The net present value is used as a decision criterion to determine the best replacement option under different replacement and real option scenarios. Herein, a case study to evaluate different replacement alternatives was conducted for the garment industry. Results of the stochastic net present value, mean-standard-deviation scatter plot, and stochastic dominance showed that the best option was to rent and then buy a new machine of reduced size but greater technological advancement. Finally, tornado diagrams and perfect control methods were used to analyze uncertain factors in order to improve the model and further minimize uncertainty effects.

13

New logistic regression approach for identification factors affecting the partition of costs and risk in the international trade

Sternad Marjan, Dragan Dejan

LogForum

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2024

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Vol. 20, no. 4

483--496

EN

Background: The selection of the right Incoterms is crucial for minimising risks and costs in international trade. This paper aims to develop a model that identifies the key factors influencing the selection of Incoterms. The main contribution of the research is the creation of a new statistical modelling process that effectively identifies the variables impacting trade costs and risk. The study uses import and export data from non-EU countries in the context of a Slovenian case study. Methods: A novel model selection mechanism is developed, combining the logistic regression (logit) modelling with Monte Carlo simulations to identify influential factors in Incoterms selection. This mechanism incorporates heuristic techniques, which guide a sequential process of gradually searching through logit model candidates to determine the best-fit model for both import and export scenarios. Results: The application of the new logit modelling procedure reveals that the delivery location is the most significant factor affecting Incoterms selection. Additionally, the value of goods and the type of transport (containerised vs. non-containerised) also have a considerable influence. For imports, the mass of goods is found to be a significant factor as well. Conclusions: The research results offer valuable insights for companies formulating their international business strategies. By selecting the appropriate Incoterm, companies can reduce transportation risks and costs. Managing costs and risks is especially important for higher-value goods. The research finds that, for lower-value goods, sellers often take on associated costs and risks. This pattern is particularly notable with imports, where sellers are more likely to assume responsibility for lighter-weight goods.

14

The valuation of exit option in a lignite mine using Monte Carlo simulation

Pawlak Marcin, Wiśniewski Tomasz

Journal of Sustainable Mining

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2024

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Vol. 23, iss. 1

40--54

EN

This study aims to demonstrate the application of simulation techniques to the valuation of real options. The nature of the paper is methodological and empirical. The purpose of the valuation of the option to close a lignite mine in Poland is to demonstrate the methodology and advantages of employing Monte Carlo simulation in the valuation of real options. Close to actual numerical data reveals a complex optimization problem in the context of strategy selection by decisionmakers. Numerous factors (extraction costs, reclamation costs, the write-off for the reclamation fund, etc.), their interpenetration and multilevel influence on the decision to close the mine early enables simulation methods to demonstrate their valuation capabilities. The valuation techniques used in the paper, particularly the simulation comparative valuation method, are described in detail and are rooted in the literature and theory of finance.

15

Niezależność obliczeń jako metoda weryfikacji planu leczenia

Czajkowski Paweł

Inżynier i Fizyk Medyczny

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2024

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Vol. 13, nr 6

603--604

PL

Dodatkowa weryfikacja planu leczenia jest kluczowym elementem w procesie zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa realizacji poprawności leczenia promieniowaniem jonizującym. Zarówno pomiar zewnętrznym detektorem, jak i obliczenia gwarantujące niezależność z systemem planowania radioterapii jest jedną z najlepszych metod identyfikacji potencjalnych niezgodności czy błędów przed rozpoczęciem terapii. Celem pracy jest przedstawienie drugiego systemu kalkulacji dawki, jakim jest VeriQA i porównanie go z wynikami z dwóch niezależnych matryc, które służą do weryfikacji dozymetrycznej planów leczenia. W pracy skupiono się na planach stereotaktycznych.

EN

Additional verification of the treatment plan is a key element in the process of ensuring the safe implementation of ionizing radiation treatment. Both measurement with an external detector and calculations ensuring independence with the radiotherapy planning system could be the best method of identifying potential errors before starting therapy. The aim is to present the second dose calculation system, VeriQA, and compare it with two independent detectors that are used for dosimetric verification of treatment plans. The work focuses on the stereotactic plans.

16

Fault analysis and reliability evaluation for motorized spindle of cycloidal gear grinding machine based on multi-source bayes

Wang Huiliang, Zhang Zhijie, Li Jie, Xin Wen, Han Chunyang

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność

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2024

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Vol. 26, no. 1

art. no. 175010

EN

A Monte Carlo simulation method based on multisource bayes is proposed to improve the reliability of motorized spindles in cycloid gear grinding machines and reduce their failure rate. Based on field investigations and motorized spindle maintenance records, a fault tree model of a motorized spindle was established, and the fuzzy importance of each bottom event was evaluated. The fault tree of a motorized spindle was used as a Monte Carlo reliability simulation model, and its importance was used as the input parameter for the simulation. The reliability evaluation index of the motorized spindle was obtained at different simulation times. The feasibility and accuracy of the reliability simulation were verified by comparing the importance and simulation importance. A vibration test was designed for bearing faults with high importance, and fault extraction was performed by combining the wavelet packet transform and empirical mode decomposition. This method can also be used to simulate and analyze the reliability of other equipment or machine tools.

17

Determination of Elastic Moduli of the r −12 Soft Disk Crystal by the Minimum Image Method

Tretiakov Konstantin V., Wojciechowski Krzysztof W.

Computational Methods in Science and Technology

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2024

|

Vol. 30, No. 1-2

11--16

EN

Elastic moduli of soft disk crystals close to the melting point have been evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. The inverse-power potential has been used to model the interactions between particles. In calculations of the elastic moduli by the Parrinello-Rahman formalism, the long-range interactions between atoms have been taken into account using the minimum image method. The study shows that for systems consisting of around a hundred particles there are differences between the values of the elastic moduli obtained by the calculations using the minimum image method and those coming from the traditional approach. It has been found that the elastic moduli obtained by the simulations using the minimum image method even for as small as a hundred-particle systems are very close to these values at the thermodynamic limit N → ∞.

18

Investigation of Quantum Entanglement Information for β+ γ Coincidences

Romanchek Gregory R., Shoop Greyson, Kupinski Matthew A., Kuo Phillip H., King Michael, Furenlid Lars R., Abbaszadeh Shiva

Bio-Algorithms and Med-Systems

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2024

|

Vol. 20, Special issue

27--34

EN

Objective: We assess the viability of using quantum entanglement (QE) information for improving event classification in a combined PET-Compton Camera (PET-CC) system, particularly in the potential for distinguishing true positron annihilation events from Random events due to prompt gamma contamination for β + and γ emitting isotopes. Methods: Monte Carlo GATE simulations were performed to evaluate the sensitivity and accuracy of event classification in various scenarios using ground truth data, including standard PET events and Compton Camera interactions. QE-sensitive data subsets were identified and filtered based on either polar scattering angles (θ) or the energy of the initial Compton scatter (EC ). The enhancement ratio - ratio of the difference of azimuthal scattering at Δφ = 90° and 0° - and fraction of post-filter Trues were used as metrics. Results: The simulations showed that QE information could assist in resolving energy ambiguities, particularly in cases where prompt gamma emissions complicate event pairing. Filtering based on EC provided a higher enhancement ratio (R ≈ 1.8) compared to θ-based filtering (R ≈ 1.4), indicating better discrimination between True and Random events. The ratio of Trues to Total events passing the EC filter (0.837) greatly improved upon that of the θ-based filter (0.541). Conclusions: Our results suggest that energy-based filtering is more effective in leveraging QE information, but further refinement of filtering algorithms is needed to fully realize its benefits. While QE has the potential to improve event classification in PET-CC systems for a few coincidence cases, further studies are needed to utilize this paradigm in image formation.

19

Forecasting method of electric vehicle charging load based on virtual prediction parameter estimation strategy

Cai Yongxiang, Chen Qing, Wang Yang, Li Wei, Ren Jiakuan, Qu Yangquan

Archives of Electrical Engineering

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2024

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Vol. 73, nr 2

355--372

EN

In order to deal with the threat of the randomness of large-scale electric vehicle (EV) loads to the safe and economic operation of the distribution network effectively, a forecasting method of EV loads based upon virtual prediction parameter estimation strategy is proposed. Firstly, an in-depth analysis is conducted to thoroughly examine the applicability and target audience of various existing power user load forecasting methods. This initial phase provided a solid foundation for the introduction of the new methods. Secondly, utilizing the Monte Carlo simulation method, a charging load forecasting approach that considers both spatial and temporal distribution is developed. This method effectively captures the diversity of EV charging behaviors by leveraging virtual parameter estimation, integrating insights from historical data into future load predictions, thereby enhancing forecasting accuracy. Finally, to validate the effectiveness of this groundbreaking approach, comprehensive testing was conducted on the MATLAB R2017a simulation platform. This verification phase not only serves to demonstrate the method’s accuracy, but also underscores its practicality and reliability in real-world applications.

20

Vibration response of a hybrid steel–timber building element with uncertain material and joint parameters

Chocholaty Bettina, Eser Martin, Hoppe Karl-Alexander, Wang Daotong, Marburg Steffen

Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering

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2024

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Vol. 24, no. 1

art. no. e22, 2024

EN

The design of building elements is usually done conservatively by considering safety factors. However, more efficient designs are gaining interest for economic and sustainability reasons. Hence, an adequate prediction tool can improve the design of building elements. Probabilistic modeling, for example, Monte Carlo simulations, represents a remedy to this by examining uncertainties in a structure through uncertain input parameters. In this work, a Monte Carlo simulation is performer to quantify the uncertainty in the modal properties of a hybrid steel–timber building element. The material properties of the timber material and the stiffness of the structural joints are considered uncertain inputs. The probabilistic properties of the timber material are evaluated utilizing Bayesian inference instead of the usually applied empirical methods. Using these inferred timber material properties leads to a good match of simulated and measured natural frequencies of the timber components. These parameters are utilized together with the joints’ uncertain inputs in the Monte Carlo simulation of the hybrid steel–timber building element. The results show a significant span for the identified eigenfrequencies, which proves the relevance of probabilistic analyses for the vibration characteristics of building elements.