Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

1

Analysis of business uncertainty in the reefer container sector in the VUCA era of industry 4.0. case study

Hadi W., Azisah N., Andarwati E.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2026

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Vol. 20 No. 1

223--228

EN

This study examines the phenomenon of uncertainty in the reefer container business within the VUCA era (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), focusing on a domestic route case study of PT.XXX. The background of this research lies in the demand for fresh product delivery, which faces uncertainties in market conditions. The objective of the study is to identify the factors of uncertainty, classify their impacts based on relevant divisions, and provide mitigation solutions. The research methodology employed is a qualitative case study, involving observations, questionnaires, and documentation. The findings reveal that uncertainties stem from government policies, delays in vessel schedules, and fluctuations in operational costs such as fuel prices and freight tariffs. The study concludes that cross-division collaboration and improved mitigation strategies are crucial to maintaining business stability. It is recommended to enhance employee training, strengthen technology integration, and establish strategic partnerships with logistics partners to minimize the impact of uncertainties.

2

Can uncertainty shape supply chain resilience?

Marzantowicz Łukasz

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Morskiej w Szczecinie

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2025

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nr 84 (156)

115--128

EN

The main objective of this article is to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty on the resilience of supply chains. To achieve this task, a theoretical discourse is presented on both uncertainty and supply chain resilience. A survey is conducted among 160 supply chain managers and directors from around the world. The survey utilized the computer-assisted web interview (CAWI) method, and the results are analyzed using the Ward agglomeration method. The findings enabled a determination of the strength of uncertainty’s impact on supply chain resilience, understood through the so-called 4A formula, which combines flexibility, adaptability, resilience, and alignment. Additionally, the article discusses whether these considerations can contribute to supply chain management, particularly in supporting decision-making processes, such as the supply chain’s response to uncertainty. This study is the author’s original work and represents their contribution to the ongoing scientific discussion on the resilience (including response) of supply chains under conditions of uncertainty.

3

Addressing uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis of intergenerational investments – insights from Poland’s framework

Foltyn-Zarychta Monika

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2025

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z. 229

103--120

EN

Purpose: The study identifies key shortcomings in how uncertainty is incorporated into Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for intergenerational investments in Poland and puts forward recommendations for improving the regulatory project evaluation framework. Design/methodology/approach: The paper draws the Polish framework limitations and improvement recommendations by critically reviewing relevant literature, including empirical studies, the CBA regulatory framework in Poland, and internationally recognized best practices, particularly from the US and UK. Findings: The current evaluation framework in Poland lacks sufficient empirical grounding and relies heavily on EU CBA guidelines, which inadequately address intergenerational uncertainty. National guidelines should specifically recognize the limitations of standard risk assessment methods for intergenerational issues, recommend approaches such as real options analysis, define normative principles that reflect intergenerational ethical concerns, and adopt declining discount rates to better account for long-term uncertainty. Research limitations/implications: The study primarily focused on the Polish framework, particularly concerning good practices in the US and UK evaluation guidelines. Including perspectives from additional countries—both in terms of regulatory contexts and case study–based research—would deepen understanding of intergenerational equity and uncertainty role in project evaluation. Practical implications: The findings provide practical guidance for decision-making on intergenerational investments in areas such as climate change and nuclear energy, benefiting policymakers and investors. Social implications: Adopting the recommendation would improve the quality of investment decisions and the efficiency of public spending, contributing to greater social welfare for both current and future generations. Originality/value: Intergenerational uncertainty has not yet been addressed in Poland’s CBA regulatory framework. This paper offers recommendations with the potential to advance the research and policy-making in sectors like climate change and nuclear energy, central to achieving the EU’s climate neutrality goals.

4

Model menzurandu jako podstawa obliczania niepewności wyników przetwarzania ciągów danych pomiarowych

Jakubiec Jerzy, Topór-Kamiński Tadeusz

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2025

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R. 101, nr 12

316--324

PL

W artykule opisano zastosowanie modelu menzurandu do wyznaczenia równań opisujących metrologiczne właściwości algorytmów przetwarzania ciągów danych pomiarowych: równania przetwarzania estymat menzurandów wejściowych i równania błędu. Równanie przetwarzania pozwala na uzyskanie estymaty wielkości wyjściowej, a równanie błędu umożliwia analizę błędów i obliczenie niepewności estymaty wyjściowej, gdy spełnione jest Centralne twierdzenie graniczne. Artykuł zilustrowano przykładami obliczeń dla przykładowych algorytmów: liniowego i nieliniowego.

EN

The article describes the use of the measurand model to determine equations describing the metrological properties of measurement data processing algorithms: input measurand estimate processing equation and error equation. The processing equation allows obtaining an output estimate, and the error equation allows for error analysis and calculation of the uncertainty of the output estimate when the Central Limit Theorem is satisfied. The article is illustrated with examples of calculations for sample algorithms: linear and nonlinear.

5

Fuzzy approach to analyze measurement uncertainty on the example of magnetic field measurement

Urbańnski Michał, Wójcicka Kinga, Bolek Karol, Wójcicki Paweł, Białas Maksymilian

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2025

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R. 101, nr 5

147--151

EN

The paper shows an example of the application of fuzzy set theory to calculate the fuzzy uncertainty in the measurement of a alternating magnetic fields in a system using a induction sensor.

PL

W pracy pokazano przykład zastosowania teorii zbiorów rozmytych do wyliczenia niepewności rozmytej w pomiarze zmiennego pola magnetycznego w układzie wykorzystującym czujnik indukcyjny.

6

Assessment of risk and uncertainty by internal and external stakeholders in an e-health megaproject

Gładysz Barbara, Frączkowski Kazimierz, Kuchta Dorota

Operations Research and Decisions

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2025

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Vol. 35, No. 4

11--26

EN

The paper examines differences in the perceptions of risks and uncertainties associated with an e-health megaproject in Poland, as viewed by internal and external stakeholder groups. In addition to describing the project, its stakeholders, and the related risks and uncertainties, the paper presents the results of statistical analyses. These results indicate that risks and uncertainties are seen as non-negligible, and certain risks and uncertainties are perceived differently by various stakeholder groups. The underlying reasons for these differences are identified. The paper also outlines the specific implications of the identified patterns of perception, along with their causes, for managing similar projects in the future.

7

The importance of measurement uncertainty during gauge block calibration in determining compliance with specifications

Stępień Krzysztof, Świderski Jacek, Makieła Włodzimierz

Metrology and Measurement Systems

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2025

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Vol. 32, nr 2

art. no. 2, 1--15

EN

This article deals with selected problems related to the calibration of gauge blocks. It describes basic terms and definitions concerning principles of determining the conformity of calibration results with specifications, such as measurement uncertainty and measurement traceability. The requirements for laboratories accredited according to ISO/IEC 17025:2017 were discussed that are related to the declaration of compliance with the specification. Guidelines are given on decision rules and compliance principles based on ILAC-G8:09/2019 and JCGM 106:2012 in terms of the guard bands used and the associated risks of making an erroneous decision and the application of two decision rules: binary and nonbinary. The presented problems were supported by an analysis regarding calibration of the gauge blocks by the interferometric and comparative methods with regard to measurement uncertainty and deviations of the length in relation to the nominal length for individual grades in accordance with ISO 3650:1998. As the theoretical analysis has shown, there are no sources in the literature that would allow one to assess the risk of making the wrong decision during the calibration of gauge blocks. Therefore, the authors believe that the results presented in this paper will be of interest both to researchers dealing with the problem of estimating measurement uncertainty and to the staff of measurement laboratories.

8

System for measuring electric parameters of thermoelectric cell battery of a sectional module with thermogenerators

Neska Mirosław, Opara Tadeusz

Metrology and Measurement Systems

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2025

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Vol. 32, nr 1

art. no. 3, 1--18

EN

One way to manage low-temperature heat is to convert it directly into DC electricity using thermocells. By placing a single thermoelectric generator or a battery of thermoelectric cells between two heat exchangers, one side with a higher temperature medium and the other with a lower temperature medium, a temperature difference is created between the covers of the thermoelectric elements, which causes heat transfer and the generation of electricity. The module with thermogenerators and exchangers (MTEG) discussed in the article is equipped with a developed measurement system. This system is used to determine the electric current of twenty, serially-connected thermoelectric generators and to measure the electric voltage across the load resistance of the thermoelectric circuit. The publication presents subcircuits for measuring the internal resistance of two thermogenerators placed symmetrically in individual sections of the MTEG module. According to the developed test method, the measurement system was verified in cyclic tests with varying thermodynamic forcing. The accuracies of the test bench electric parameter measurement paths were estimated, yielding expanded uncertainties of ±0.012 W in the measurement of generated electric power and ±0.0008 Ω and ±0.0009 Ω in the resistance of the internal thermogenerators, respectively. Repeatability (EV) was verified and the “capability” of the developed measurement system to function correctly was confirmed.

9

Methodological approach to the measurement of ball bearing grooves geometric parameters based on coordinate measuring machine

Yu Chenghao, Huang Dongyang

Metrology and Measurement Systems

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2025

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Vol. 32, nr 1

art. no. 6, 1--12

EN

Bearings are essential components in aerospace machinery and various transportation vehicles, with the grooves inside them providing smooth tracks for rolling elements to carry loads while minimizing friction-induced wear. Accurate measurement of the dimensional and shape tolerances of these grooves is crucial. Coordinate measuring machines, known for their high precision and versatility, excel in measuring various types and shapes of workpieces. The bearing groove measurement method developed with CMMs introduces a notable innovation over conventional techniques. Unlike profilometers, which are often incapable of measuring certain groove types, this method can be applied to a broader range of samples, addressing a long-standing challenge. A comparison of uncertainty between this method and the traditional profilometer method resulted in an En value of 0.11, confirming its satisfactory measurement accuracy and compliance with the technical requirements for bearing groove geometric parameters.

10

Measurement models - theory and practice of uncertainty evaluation of geometrical deviation measurements

Wojtyła Mirosław, Płowucha Wojciech

Metrology and Measurement Systems

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2025

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Vol. 32, nr 3

art. no. 2, 1--21

EN

The publication provides a critical analysis of fundamental documents concerning the determination of measurement uncertainty from the perspective of the machinery industry. The requirements contained in the documents JCGM 104, JCGM 100, and JCGM 101 were compared with important documents used in geometrical measurements, particularly with EA-4/02, ISO 14253-2, ISO/TS 15530-1, ISO 15530-3, ISO/TS 15530-4, and VDI/VDE 2617-11. Significant differences between the documents analysed, both terminological and interpretative, were highlighted. The analysis was performed in the sequence of stages for determining measurement uncertainty: formulation, propagation, and summarizing. Special attention was paid to the problem of defining the measurement model and the insufficient reference to the measurement model in the analysed documents. Attention was drawn to the wide range of characteristics measured in the machinery industry, such as linear and angular dimensions and form, orientation, position, and runout deviations, as well as the wide range of measurement equipment used, from simple instruments like callipers, micrometers, and mechanical dial gauges, to coordinate measuring machines and measurement systems. The current approach to the uncertainty of coordinate measurements, including the new possibility of modelling coordinate measurement, was discussed.

11

Evaluation of the type a uncertainty caused by simultaneous influence of random noise and power line interference

Dorozhovets Mykhaylo

Metrology and Measurement Systems

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2025

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Vol. 32, nr 2

art. no. 3, 1--15

EN

The paper presents the type A evaluation of standard uncertainty when the result of measurement is determined by digital averaging of the input signal which is distorted by simultaneous influence of the random uncorrelated noise and power line interference. It was shown that the classical evaluation of uncertainty based on determining of the standard deviation of input observations is not sufficient, because it does not take into account the effect of suppression of the interference by averaging. To correctly evaluate uncertainty, both the amplitude of the interference component and the standard deviation of the random component should be estimated separately. Simple methods of separate estimation of these components are proposed and analysed in detail. The proposed solutions to the uncertainty evaluation were studied when uniform and triangle averaging were used and verified both by Monte Carlo simulations and by experimental tests. The simulation and test results obtained showed very good accordance with theoretical results.

12

Statistical methods for determining sound power level

Stępień Bartłomiej

Materiały Budowlane

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2025

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nr 8

134--140

EN

The study on the usefulness and effectiveness of the bootstrap method and the Bayesian approach for determining sound power levels in real-life conditions was conducted using actual measurement data. The study determined the minimum sample size required for reliable determination of sound power level using both statistical methods. The conclusions were based on the results of non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis and Tukey-Kramer statistical tests at a significance level of α = 0.05. The conducted analysis have shown that in order to obtain reliable estimates of the sound power level, it is necessary to have at least a 5-element measurement sample for the bootstrap method and a 4-element sample for the Bayesian approach. The average bias of the bootstrap estimator was 0.51 dB, while that of the Bayesian estimator was 0.75 dB. The analysis revealed significant statistical differences between the sound power levels determined using the bootstrap method and Bayesian inference.

PL

Badanie przydatności i skuteczności metody bootstrap oraz wnioskowania bayesowskiego do wyznaczenia poziomu mocy akustycznej w warunkach rzeczywistych przeprowadzono, wykorzystując rzeczywiste dane pomiarowe. Wyznaczono minimalny rozmiar próby pomiarowej wymagany do wiarygodnego określenia poziomu mocy akustycznej w przypadku wykorzystania obu metod statystycznych. Wnioskowanie bazuje na wynikach nieparametrycznych testów statystycznych Kruskala-Wallisa oraz Tukeya-Kramera przy poziomie istotności α = 0,05. Przeprowadzone analizy wykazały, że w celu uzyskania wiarygodnych estymat poziomu mocy akustycznej konieczna jest co najmniej 5-elementowa próba pomiarowa w przypadku metody bootstrap oraz 4-elementowa w podejściu bayesowskim. Średnie obciążenie estymatora bootstrap wyniosło 0,51 dB, natomiast estymatora bayesowskiego – 0,75 dB. Analiza wykazała, że poziomy mocy akustycznej wyznaczone za pomocą metody bootstrap i wnioskowania bayesowskiego istotnie się różnią statystycznie między sobą.

13

Navigating Risks with ISO 31000 for A Sustainable Future: A Strategic Approach in The Indonesia Textile Industry

Yonatan Agnes Zefanya, Susanto Sani, Sukapto Paulus, Zagloel Teuku Yuri M., Timotius Elkana

Management Systems in Production Engineering

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2025

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nr 1 (33)

82--92

EN

The dynamic changes across various industries are creating uncertainty, potentially leading to a state of risk. All industries are required to formulate mitigation actions for downside risks that have negative effects and leverage on upside risks, those with positive impacts. Despite various mitigation actions, only a few industries are capable of implementing risk management to address the dynamic changes. The refore, this qualitative research aimed to investigate the effectiveness of risk management guided by ISO 31000:2018 in navigating risks as a strategic approach for the industry to achieve a sustainable future. The investigation focused on the application of risk management in the textile manufacturing industry in Indonesia. The initial stages commenced with defining risk management scope, context, and criteria, followed by risk assessment consisting of identification, analysis, and evaluation, as well as formulating risk treatment. Heads of production, finance, and purchasing departments were selected as key informants through judgment sampling, where the results of semi-structured interviews served as primary data. Furthermore, operational, financial, strategic, technological, and informational risks were identified in the industry. The results showed that among the 109 downside and 20 upside risks, 10 were categorized as high-level and prioritized for handling. A total of 52 actions were determined as a treatment to navigate the high-level risks. The results showed that the ISO 31000:2018 guideline effectively addressed industry risk management needs, offering potential solutions to overcome the dynamic changes.

14

Remaining useful life prediction with uncertainty quantification using evidential deep learning

Ben Ayed Safa, Broujeny Roozbeh Sadeghian, Hamza Rachid Tahar

Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Research

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2025

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Vol. 15, No. 1

37--55

EN

Predictive Maintenance presents an important and challenging task in Industry 4.0. It aims to prevent premature failures and reduce costs by avoiding unnecessary maintenance tasks. This involves estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL), which provides critical information for decision makers and planners of future maintenance activities. However, RUL prediction is not simple due to the imperfections in monitoring data, making effective Predictive Maintenance challenging. To address this issue, this article proposes an Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) based method to predict the RUL and to quantify both data uncertainties and prediction model uncertainties. An experimental analysis conducted on the C-MAPSS dataset of aero-engine degradation affirms that EDL based method outperforms alternative machine learning approaches. Moreover, the accompanying uncertainty quantification analysis demonstrates sound methodology and reliable results.

15

Assessment of the repeatability of column experiments results on the example of a conservative tracer

Pietrzak Damian, Kania Jarosław, Kmiecik Ewa, Baba Alper

Geologos

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2025

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Vol. 31, No. 2

137--150

EN

Most studies on the behavior of pollutants in the groundwater environment are carried out in laboratories, and the results are then implemented at local and regional levels using model simulations or analytical solutions. Column experiments are used to determine the transport characteristics of inorganic and organic chemicals in the soil and water environment. Although column experiments have been conducted regularly for many years, there is currently no established standard protocol for setting up and conducting them to ensure consistent results. The repeatability of column experiments was evaluated for soils, which differ primarily in the silt and clay content, using a conservative tracer susceptible only to advection and dispersion processes to reduce the number of variables affecting the results of the study which arise in a case of using reactive contaminants. The column experiments performed according to the adopted methodology are characterized by high repeatability of the obtained test results for the transport parameters, regardless of the type of injection or the chosen column length (only a small-scale effect is visible). Based on the results, it can be noticed that for the same soil the values of the pore–water velocity for different types of injections and column lengths are very similar. The percentage difference between the values of pore–water velocity obtained for both tested soils does not exceed 5% and for individual pairs of parallel column experiments it does not exceed 3%.

16

An uncertain programming model for fixed charge transportation problem with item sampling rates

Sang Tianyu, Zhu Kai, Shen Jiayu, Yang Lin

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność

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2025

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Vol. 27, no. 1

art. no. 192165

EN

This paper analyzes the transportation issue involving multiple objectives and items with fixed costs amid uncertainty, which aims to increase net profit while minimizing carbon emissions, to determine an optimal product shipping strategy. This paper introduces the use of uncertain theory to address the transportation dilemma, considering various challenges such as potential uncertainties during the actual transport process. It involves defining variables such as supply, demand and the rate of product sampling qualification as uncertain factors, constructing mathematical models, and deriving the corresponding model as well as the respective equivalent form by means of uncertainty theory. A linear weighted method is adopted to reflect the significance of each objective as identified by policymakers and suggest a sparrow optimization algorithm combined with butterfly search for numerical experiments to discover the optimal solution. This demonstrates the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed models.

17

Uncertainty and Stochasticity in Modelling of Microstructure Evolution During Hot Rolling of Steels

Szeliga Danuta, Foryś Jakub, Kusiak Jan, Kuziak Roman, Nadolski Rafał, Pietrzyk Maciej, Rauch Łukasz

Archives of Metallurgy and Materials

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2025

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Vol. 70, iss. 1

405--414

EN

Advanced numerical models, which predict heterogeneity of microstructural features, are needed to design modern steels with heterogeneous microstructures. Models based on stochastic internal variables meet this requirement. Our stochastic model accounts for the random character of the recrystallization and transfers this randomness into equations describing the evolution of the dislocation populations and the grain size during the hot deformation of steels. The idea of the internal variable model, with the dislocation density and the grain size being stochastic variables, is described in the paper. The material parameters, which influence accuracy and reliability of the model, were identified. They compose shear modulus, lattice friction stress and the mean free pass for dislocations. Numerical test showing influence of these parameters on the identification of the model coefficients were performed and a hint how these parameters should be selected is given. Compression loads and histograms of the grain size measured in the experimental compression tests were used to identify the coefficients in the model. The model was applied to simulations of the industrial process of the hot strip rolling. It was shown that the model can be used to both predictions of the microstructural heterogeneity caused by the stochastic character of microstructure evolution and to the evaluation of the uncertainty of phase composition in the final product. The latter is due to the uncertainty of the boundary conditions.

18

Illuminating groundwater flow modeling uncertainty through spatial discretization and complexity exploration

Samani Saeideh

Acta Geophysica

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2025

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Vol. 73, no. 1

603--617

EN

Uncertainty in groundwater modeling presents a significant challenge, originating from various sources. This groundbreaking study aims to quantitatively assess uncertainties arising from spatial discretization and complexity dynamics. The research focuses on the Najafabad Aquifer in Esfahan, Iran, as a compelling case study. Five distinct conceptual models were developed, with parameter counts of 16 (model 1), 20 (model 2), 22 (model 3), and 26 (model 4 and 5), and subjected to a consistent spatial discretization of 500 m. Additionally, two alternative models with spatial discretizations of 250 m (model 1a) and 1000 m (model 1 b) were introduced based on the least complex model with 16 parameters. The study comprehensively examines groundwater uncertainty by manipulating spatial discretization while considering complexity dynamics. Model Muse facilitates simulation, and UCODE is utilized for calibration using observed hydraulic head data. Uncertainties are explored using Bayesian model-averaging (BMA) and model selection criteria. Comparing probabilities of the initial five models reveals increasing uncertainty with a greater number of parameters (KIC in model 1: 99.25%, model 2: 0.41%, model 3: 0.34%, model 4 and 5: 0%). Investigation of seven alternative models highlights the dominant influence of coarser spatial discretization on groundwater modeling uncertainty. Remarkably, despite the lowest complexity in model 1 with probability of 99.25%, the model with coarse spatial discretization (model 1b) exhibits the zero probability (KIC in model 1a: 93.42%, model 1: 6.53%, model 1b: 0%, model 2: 0.03%, model 3: 0.02%, model 4 and 5: 0%.). Thus, considering optimal parameter count and spatial discretization size is crucial in conceptual model development. This study pushes the boundaries of understanding the intricate relationship between spatial discretization, complexity, and groundwater modeling uncertainty. Findings hold significant implications for improving model accuracy and decision-making in hydrogeological studies.

19

Problems of estimating the uncertainty of water pH measurement

Dorozhovets Mykhailo, Szlachta Anna

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Rzeszowskiej. Elektrotechnika

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2024

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z. 41

13--24

EN

The article analyses the main problems associated with evaluation the combined standard uncertainty of the water pH measurement by the type A and B methods. It is shown that, for a small number n of the tested water samples, the type A standard uncertainty determined by the conventional method is underestimated. Therefore, the correct expression to calculate this component of uncertainty is presented. The authors also highlighted that since in the practical measurement the influencing quantities and sensitivity coefficients are not known abso-lutely precisely, therefore their uncertainties often have to be taken into account when estimating the combined uncertainty. For this purpose the authors have propose their approach to correctly determine the type B components of combined standard uncertainty caused by not only the values of influencing quantities and sensitivity coefficients, but also their uncertainties. The proposed approaches are illustrated by estimating the uncertainty in the measurement of drinking water pH, presenting the corresponding components of measurement uncertainty budget.

20

Sensitivity assessment of a gradient-based leak localization procedure for pressure sensor faults using a laboratory model of a transmission pipeline

Ostapkowicz Paweł

Transport Problems

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2024

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T. 19, z. 4

137--150

EN

This research addresses the topic of leakage localization in liquid transmission pipelines. Particularly, it deals with the standard gradient-based procedure used for performing such a task. The procedure relies on pressure gradient calculations based on pressure data collected from measurement points distributed along the pipeline. This study aimed to verify this procedure regarding its sensitivity to typical systematic errors related to pressure transducers. The primary measure evaluated was the accuracy of the calculated coordinate of a leak spot. The uncertainty of the leak localization result was also estimated following the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement convention. A laboratory model of the pipeline was used to practically implement and test the procedure. During experiments, low-intensity leakages with a level of 0.25–2.00% were simulated. Regarding typical systematic errors, the bias (zero moving) type and the proportional ratio type were considered, which were numerically simulated in the measurement data. The findings reveal how sensitive the examined procedure is in relation to these errors, considering their different levels and scenarios related to used pressure transducers.