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1

The impact of Covid-19 on passenger shipping activities in selected EU countries: diagnosis and long-term scenarios

Barczak Agnieszka, Dembińska Izabela, Kauf Sabina

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

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2025

|

z. 128

51--69

EN

The article is devoted to the topic of passenger maritime transport in selected EU countries and the changes in the maritime passenger transport market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The implemented restrictions on movement entailed a voluntary and temporary suspension of the activities of tourist companies using the maritime fleet. With the above in mind, the purpose of this article was to identify the consequences of changes in the mobility behavior of the population as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic on the operation of passenger maritime transport. The differences in the number of seaborne passengers served in selected EU countries between actual and projected values were indicated. Long-term forecasts were also made, which made it possible to develop scenarios of possible events, describing the potential development directions of the branch. We use a combined forecast method based on a weighted average of individual forecasts (weights inversely proportional to mean percentage absolute error (MAPE)). We use such forecasting methods as Fourier spectral analysis, exponential smoothing models, and seasonality indices. We used time series models to build long-term forecasts. Combined forecasts for selected EU countries were determined. They were used to supplement long-term forecasts. This made it possible to assign the obtained results to ambient scenarios. Combined forecasts showed that in all quarters of 2020-2021, the number of passengers transported by sea transport was lower than forecast values in all EU countries analyzed. This confirms the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on this branch of transportation as well. Long-term forecasts, built on the basis of combined forecasts and assumptions about the annual growth rate of passenger numbers, indicate that in most of the countries analyzed, the most likely scenario is an annual increase of 10% in passenger numbers. This means that by 2026 only Germany and Denmark will see the number of maritime passengers return to pre-pandemic levels.

2

The impact of global and local crises on the functioning of road transport in Poland

Szawelski Mateusz

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Poznańskiej. Organizacja i Zarządzanie

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2025

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Nr 92

199--219

EN

Polish road transport is number one in Europe, accounting for over 20% of freight transport on the old continent. It is also directly responsible for 6% of Poland’s GDP. However, since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, a huge crisis has been noticeable, which, combined with many smaller ones, has escalated to the most serious in over 20 years. The aim of this paper is to discuss the key reasons for the crisis in the Polish road transport industry and to show the actual consequences of these problems. The study was conducted in a descriptive form using data analysis from reports by major road transport organizations, a review of scientific literature, observation and analysis of real cases. It was found that the impact on this industry in a single period of challenges related to the pandemic, economic, war in Ukraine, shortage of drivers, and EU policy. The emergence of so many sudden changes and unusual situations forced many companies to reduce their fleets and, in the worst cases, led to restructuring or bankruptcy. As a result, the study showed that these situations were significantly reflected in the crisis that affected the Polish road transport industry. The conclusion was that carriers were forced to adapt to the current situation, which was referred to as their new reality. It was also established that a responsible approach is key in this situation, which must be focused on flexible action and adaptation to the current conditions imposed by global and local crises.

PL

Polski transport drogowy jest numerem jeden w Europie, odpowiada za ponad 20% pracy przewozowej na Starym Kontynencie, generuje również 6% polskiego PKB. Jednak od wybuchu pandemii COVID-19 zauważalny jest ogromny kryzys, który – złączony z wielu pomniejszych – eskalował do rangi najpoważniejszego od ponad 20 lat. Celem pracy jest omówienie kluczowych powodów kryzysu w branży polskiego transportu drogowego oraz ukazanie faktycznych konsekwencji tych problemów. Przedstawienie powodów oraz skutków wspomnianych sytuacji jest kluczowe dla zrozumienia powagi rzeczywistości, z jaką mierzą się przewoźnicy w Polsce. Badanie miało charakter opisowy i zostało przeprowadzone z wykorzystaniem analizy danych pochodzących z raportów głównych organizacji sektora transportu drogowego. Uzupełniono je przeglądem literatury naukowej, obserwacją oraz analizą rzeczywistych przypadków, a także analizą opinii ekspertów branżowych. Stwierdzono, że skumulowanie w krótkim czasie wyzwań związanych z pandemią, ze spowolnieniem gospodarczym, z wojną w Ukrainie, brakiem kierowców zawodowych oraz polityką UE doprowadziło do zwiększenia kosztów działalności, a także wymusiło szybką reorganizację procesów i struktur w przedsiębiorstwach. Pojawienie się nagłych zmian i niecodziennych sytuacji zmusiło wiele firm do redukcji floty, a w najgorszych przypadkach zakończyło się restrukturyzacją lub upadłością. W rezultacie badanie dowiodło, że wspomniane sytuacje znacząco odzwierciedliły się w kryzysie, który dotknął branżę polskiego transportu drogowego. Wykazano przymus adaptacji przewoźników do aktualnej sytuacji, którą nazwano nową rzeczywistością. Ustalono również to, że kluczowe w tej sytuacji jest odpowiedzialne podejście, które w swojej strategii musi być nastawione na elastyczne działanie i dopasowywanie się do aktualnych warunków stawianych przez globalne i lokalne kryzysy.

3

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the financial risk of hospital operations in Poland

Gądek Magdalena, Górski Arkadiusz

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2025

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z. 226

287--301

EN

Purpose: The main objective of the research was to find an answer to the research question: What impact on the financial risk of hospital operations in Poland was the COVID-19 pandemic? Design/methodology/approach: The following research methods were used to achieve the research objective: critical analysis of the subject literature, financial data analysis, ratio analysis, statistical inference using selected statistical tests with the use of the IBM SPSS Statistics. Findings: At the stage of analysis of the literature, it was shown that the pandemic theoretically had an impact on the financial situation of hospitals, as confirmed by other studies, therefore, the impact of the pandemic should also be visible in the area of financial risk of hospital operations. However, the literature review carried out did not confirm the existence of research in this area. In connection with the existing cognitive gap, we conducted empirical studies that did not confirm the adopted detailed hypotheses. It should be considered that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a statistically significant impact on the financial risk of hospitals in Poland. Research limitations/implications: It should be emphasized that three financial risk measures were adopted, the number of financial risk measures should be expanded in future studies. Authors also propose to extend the research to include the use of measures that take into account the sources of risk. Authors encountered limitations of the conducted research, although the research sample was statistically adequate, but it could be more numerous, however, for many hospital units full financial data was missing and had to be rejected from the analyzed sample. Originality/value: The paper fills a research gap by empirically assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital financial risk in Poland. It offers novel insights based on volatility measures and is addressed to healthcare managers, policymakers, and researchers in health economics.

4

Management and forecasting of road accidents in Poland and Montenegro using neural networks

Gorzelańczyk Piotr, Backovic Tamara, Melović Boban

Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

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2025

|

Vol. 28

153--172

EN

Despite a general decline in recent years, road traffic accidents remain a significant public safety concern in both Poland and Montenegro. Although accident rates were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the persistent frequency of such incidents underscores the urgent need for further preventive measures to enhance road safety. The aim of this study is to forecast the number of road traffic accidents in Poland and Montenegro for the period 2024-2030. To achieve this, historical data on annual accident counts were obtained from Monstat (Montenegro) and the Polish Police. These datasets were then analyzed using selected neural network models to generate projections for the specified timeframe. The results suggest a potential stabilization in the number of traffic accidents in the near future. This forecast is influenced by several factors, including the steady increase in car ownership and ongoing investments in road infrastructure, such as the construction of new motorways and local roads. It should be noted, however, that the inherent uncertainty in data sampling – used for training, testing, and validating the models – places natural limitations on the precision of the forecasts.

5

Has our long-term trip-making behavior changed due to COVID-19?

Hamad Khaled, Traboulsi Yahya El, Shanableh Abdallah, Al-Ruzouq Rami, Dabous Saleh Abu, Zeiada Waleed, Obaid Lubna

Archives of Transport

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2025

|

Vol. 73, iss. 1

7--34

EN

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel risk perceptions and shopping habits among individuals in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The study's primary objectives are to analyze changes in travel risk perceptions and to examine shifts in travel behaviors and shopping patterns during and after the pandemic. A comprehensive survey was conducted, gathering data on socioeconomic demographics, travel risk perceptions, and shop ping habits across three periods: pre-pandemic, during, and post-pandemic. The survey included a diverse and representative sample of UAE residents, covering various demographic factors such as gender, age, residency status, and emirate of residence. Data cleaning and pre-processing were employed to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results. Descriptive analysis and statistical tests such as the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) revealed significant changes in perceptions and behaviors across the three periods. The findings indicate a notable decrease in travel risk perceptions post-pandemic, particularly concerning personal modes of transportation, including private vehicles, walking, and cycling, which were perceived as safer due to their ability to limit exposure. However, public transportation continued to evoke discomfort, reflecting ongoing concerns about virus transmission in crowded environments. The study also highlights changes in shopping behaviors, with a decline in person food and grocery shopping during the pandemic, as many individuals shifted towards online grocery delivery services for safety and convenience. Similarly, there was a reduction in in-person shopping for non-food items, ac companied by a significant increase in online shopping, indicating a broader shift towards e-commerce. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and researchers, offering a deeper understanding of the lasting impacts of the pandemic on consumer behavior. The study underscores the need for strategies that address individuals' evolving needs and concerns in the post-pandemic era, promoting resilience and adaptability in both the travel and retail sectors.

6

The analysis of spatial-temporal differences in unemployment rates in Poland by counties in the years 2019-2023

Dagna Wleklińska

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2024

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z. 201

379--390

EN

Purpose: The aim of the article is to identify the spatial differentiation of changes in the unemployment rate in the county system in Poland in the period 2019-2023. The subject of particular interest is the verification of the hypothesis about the existence of spatial dependencies in changes in the level of unemployment rates between counties considered to be neighboring in terms of a given criterion. Design/methodology/approach: The validity of using the methods and tools of spatial econometrics to describe unemployment as one of the most important negative socio-economic phenomena is confirmed by numerous empirical analyses, and in the face of dynamic economic and social changes, it does not lose its importance. The analysis used spatial and space-time econometric models. The spatial structure of dependencies between counties was quantified using the common border matrix. Findings: Research confirms the existence of spatial dependencies in the development of the unemployment rate registered in the counties in Poland. Practical implications: The practical implication of this study comes from the provision of evidence that when it comes to analyzing processes within specific areas, it is essential to account for the spatial relationships between objects, as these relationships significantly influence the outcomes and dynamics observed. Originality/value: The originality of the study comes from the tool used, which enables the analysis of processes through the prism of the structure of relationships between the objects they concern.

7

Sustainable development of Polish healthcare determined by the Covid-19 pandemic

Krawczyk-Sołtys Agnieszka, Wojtal Agnieszka

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2024

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z. 191

305--319

EN

Purpose: The acceleration of the digitization of the healthcare sector, forced by the pandemic, and the extensive use of e-services prevented is collapsed. But it was also created a space for innovative medical and medical-related solutions, development of staff competences, greater focus on the patient and his environment. The aim of the article is to determine the state and directions of sustainable development of Polish health care in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: According to the World Commission on Environment and Development, sustainable development makes it possible to meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. The 2030 Agenda aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote prosperity for all people of all ages”. The coronavirus pandemic has challenged global healthcare systems to cope with an unprecedented crisis while pursuing sustainable development as defined above. Findings: The pandemic has led healthcare leaders to act with agility, build resilience and adopt smarter ways of working to help future-proof care. It has also pushed them to rethink how care is delivered. Originality/value: An identification the main directions of sustainable development of Polish healthcare in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic.

8

Risk management in the supply chain in the light of the enterprises’ experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic

Kauf Sabina, Pisz Iwona, Tłuczak Agnieszka

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2024

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z. 195

249--270

EN

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify key reasons for intensifying risk management activities in supply chains. To achieve the objective, the following research hypotheses were adopted: H1 - the extent of business activity is not correlated with problems related to demand constraints and timeliness of payments, H2 - disruptions in supply chain continuity during a COVID-19 pandemic are independent of the type of chain. Design/methodology/approach: These paper highlights the importance of risk management in the supply chain management in addressing the pandemic induced disruptions and supply chain risk management activities. Achieving the stated goal requires answering two questions: (1) What problems are companies facing due to the coronavirus pandemic, and (2) What actions are companies taking to ensure supply chain continuity, especially in Poland conditions. 137 enterprises participated in the research, including 118 with foreign capital. The survey was conducted online. The research sample included entities from the manufacturing, trading, and service sectors located throughout Poland. Companies were selected using a snowball method, starting with supply chain managers from friendly entities and asking them to identify other entities that could take part in the study. Findings: The research showed that the continuity of supply chains in Poland was not maintained, and companies were able to keep inventories only at a minimum level. The research also analysed the impact of remote work on the effects of the functioning of enterprises and assessed the effects of support under anti-crisis shields. Originality/value: The research has been carried out in order to identify the factors that have the greatest influence on the efficiency of the supply chains of Polish enterprises. The research showed that the continuity of supply chains in Poland was not maintained, and companies were able to keep inventories only at a minimum level.

9

Foreign direct investments in Poland and China – investment dynamics 2010-2021

Bernat Maria, Romaniuk Urszula, Liu Huizheng, Sun Yingnan

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2024

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z. 197

55--72

EN

Purpose: The purpose of the present paper is study the level and dynamics of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Poland and China as countries that have been growing at completely different rates in the last 11 years. This is largely the effect of different transformation variants implemented by both countries in the second half of the XX century. In order to evaluate a given economy’s ability to export capital abroad and to absorb capital imported from other countries, it is especially important to analyse the investment balance in terms of inflow to the country and outflow abroad. Methodology: The review of source materials and literature as well as statistical and comparative analysis methods were used in the paper. The base for analysis included documents published by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM), OECD and World Bank statistics. Findings: Taking into account the differences between Poland and China in terms of the GDP and FDI dynamics, the following research questions were asked: do the GDP dynamics correspond to the dynamics of investment in the form of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in both of the aforementioned countries? - if the investment balance classifies Poland as a capital importer and China as a capital exporter, then how did this classification change in 2010-2021? did the pandemic affect the investment dynamics in 2020?

10

Elements of crisis management during the Covid-19 pandemic in Poland

Michalcewicz-Kaniowska Małgorzata, Odlanicka-Poczobutt Monika, Szyszka-Schuppik Aleksandra, Komarnicka Anna, Murawska Anna

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

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2024

|

z. 193

121--143

EN

Purpose: Contemporary threats are characterized by unpredictability, vehemence and interpermeation, and affect almost all areas of society functioning. The emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2a virus, resulted in crisis threats associated with possible loss of life, health or material possessions, destabilization of economic development, or loss of conditions for free existence. The lack of clear guidelines on how to deal with such a situation has revealed the inadequacies of the crisis management systems, which are - by design - aimed at efficient prevention of such situations as well as safety assurance and development of conditions for further advancement, i.e., containment of threat escalation, to the extent possible. The historical review of various events, analysis of the examined organizations’ practices as well as overview of the legislation have led the Authors to address the issue of personal data protection throughout the ongoing pandemic. The article is thereby aimed at cataloging the risks and development of guidelines for operation during the COVID-19 pandemic, with respect to personal data protection. Design/methodology/approach: For the purpose of the article, multiple case studies were conducted in various organizations, where one of the article co-authors acted as a professional Data Protection Officer. The research was carried out in 20 entities of different business profiles. Findings: The main problems identified involved: body temperature measurement consents, virus test result or immunization data sharing, introduction of COVID-19 questionnaires and visiting regulations, employers’ epidemiological proceedings conduct, and remote work models. Practical implications: The study resulted in the formulation of recommendations, regarding the steps to be taken by organizations in order to establish a catalog of risks via the following: identification of the actual risks, conduction of a risk assessment, development of a catalog of appropriate undertakings and procedures, preparation and maintenance of forces and resources, as well as definition of the principles for interaction of the actors involved. Further, a recommendation for implementation of a schedule of operation, based on the crisis management guidelines, has been formulated. Consequently, the basis for effective organizational operation involves ongoing verification of the procedures against the Chief Sanitary Inspector’s and the Ministry of Health’s guidelines, as well as observation and ongoing update of the trends in the crisis management changes. Originality/value: By identifying a catalogue of risks and formulating guidelines for action during a COVID-19 pandemic in relation to data protection, this article can contribute to the discussion on appropriate practices and strategies in this area. Simultaneously, it provides a valuable perspective on the adaptation of organizations to the dynamic changes in crisis management in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

11

Sales of delivery vehicles in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Orzech Paulina, Marcinek Wiktoria, Macander Marian, Jordan Józef

Transport Samochodowy

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2024

|

T. 69, nr 1

23--27

EN

The sale of vehicles is an important element of their life cycle, which includes various stages, from design and production, through use, to recycling or disposal. Sales are an important step in this cycle because they influence how many vehicles reach the market and are put into consumer use. During the COVID-19 pandemic, vehicle sales have dropped significantly. Drastic declines in production during this period were the effect of restrictions that resulted in the closure of production plants. The article presents statistics on the sales of Mercedes-Benz delivery vehicles and the changes that took place during the pandemic. It also contains recommendations that mainly concern improving the effectiveness of vehicle sales in emergency situations. During the pandemic, the activities of many automotive industries were suspended and, additionally, vehicle traffic decreased, which resulted in a general decline in the production of components, parts, as well as future car designs. The aim of the article is to analyse the sales of Mercedes-Benz delivery vehicles and to assess the factors that influenced it in the analysed period.

PL

Sprzedaż pojazdów stanowi istotny element ich cyklu życia, który obejmuje różne etapy, począwszy od projektowania i produkcji, poprzez użytkowanie, aż do recyklingu lub utylizacji. Sprzedaż stanowi ważny etap w tym cyklu, gdyż wpływa na to, jak wiele pojazdów trafia na rynek i do użytku konsumentów. W dobie pandemii COVID-19 sprzedaż pojazdów znacznie spadła. Drastyczne spadki produkcji w tym okresie były wynikiem obostrzeń, które skutkowały zamykaniem zakładów produkcyjnych. Artykuł przedstawia statystyki dotyczące sprzedaży pojazdów dostawczych marki Mercedes-Benz oraz zmiany, jakie miały miejsce w czasie pandemii. Zawiera również rekomendacje, które dotyczą głównie poprawy efektywności sprzedaży pojazdów w sytuacjach zagrożenia. W okresie pandemii działalność wielu branż samochodowych została zawieszona, a dodatkowo zmniejszyło się natężenie ruchu pojazdów, co spowodowało ogólny spadek produkcji podzespołów, części, jak również przyszłych konstrukcji aut. Celem artykułu jest dokonanie analizy sprzedaży pojazdów dostawczych marki Mercedes-Benz oraz ocena czynników, jakie na nią wpłynęły w badanym okresie.

12

Repository of data on epidemic situations on sea vessels

Bodus‐Olkowska I., Garczyńska I., Lisaj A., Mąka M., Dramski M., Chronopoulos A., Gregoric T., Koivisto H., de Melo Rodriguez G., Ziarati R., Filipiak K.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2024

|

Vol. 18 No. 1

133--137

EN

This article is an introduction to the DESSEV (DEcision Support System regarding the risk of Epidemic threats on a sea-going Vessel) project implemented as part of the Erasmus+ partnership under the leadership of the Maritime University of Szczecin. This project consists of three elements: a data repository, a rule base and a decision support system. Due to the schedule of works in the project, only the first of them was presented. The next ones will be described in subsequent publications at various international conferences. The idea of the project naturally resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, but other infectious outbreaks may also occur on sea vessels, posing a threat to the ship's crew and passengers (passenger transport). The existing legal regulations, available knowledge or training do not sufficiently address the problem of the epidemic on the state. Therefore, it was decided to introduce a novelty - a decision support system, which is designed to facilitate taking the right steps in the event of an infectious disease on a seagoing vessel.

13

Analysis of the suburban real estate market in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Witek Paulina, Jakubiak Mateusz, Hubar Yurii, Maciuk Kamil

Teka Komisji Urbanistyki i Architektury Oddział PAN w Krakowie

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2024

|

T. 52/1

411--419

EN

The aim of this study was to analyse the real estate market in the Kraków County area during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 pandemic periods. The study utilized a dataset from the state register of real estate prices covering the years 2017–2021 was used. In the introduction part, the authors analyse problems related to the real estate market during the pandemic, while the second chapter focuses on the real estate market in Krakow County. The dataset obtained from the local authority real estate transaction database consisted of 52,356 entries and after removing transactions with missing data, approximately half of this number remained. The analysis cover five different properties types: houses, apartments, parcels, commercial premisses and developed real estates. The highest number of transactions traded in the analysed area involved parcels, while houses had the lowest. On the other hand, commercial premisses had the highest prices in the market, while parcels were the cheapest. Since March 2020, when the first COVID-19 pandemic restrictions were implemented, only the number of transactions has decreased, but the pandemic has had no impact on property prices.

PL

Celem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza rynku nieruchomości na terenie powiatu krakowskiego w okresie przed pandemią COVID-19 oraz w trakcie pandemii. W badaniu wykorzystano dane z państwowego rejestru cen nieruchomości obejmujące lata 2017–2021. W części wprowadzającej autorzy dokonali analizy problemów związanych z rynkiem nieruchomości w okresie pandemii, uwzględniając także rynek nieruchomości w powiecie krakowskim. Zbiór danych pozyskanych z urzędu obejmował 52 356 transakcji, a po usunięciu pozycji z brakującymi danymi, które analizowano, uzyskano około połowę tej liczby. Analiza obejmowała pięć różnych typów nieruchomości: domy, mieszkania, działki, lokale użytkowe oraz nieruchomości zabudowane. Największa liczba transakcji na analizowanym obszarze dotyczyła działek, natomiast najmniejsza domów. W przypadku cen lokale komercyjne miały najwyższe ceny za metr kwadratowy, podczas gdy działki były najtańsze. Od marca 2020 roku, kiedy wprowadzono pierwsze obostrzenia związane z pandemią COVID-19, spadła dynamika liczby transakcji, co było widoczne w roku 2021. Pandemia nie miała natomiast wpływu na ceny nieruchomości, których trend wzrostowy nie uległ zmianie.

14

Predicting Road Accident Counts in Poland and the Czech Republic Using Neural Network Models

Gorzelańczyk Piotr, Ližbetinová Lenka, Pečman Jan

Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska

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2024

|

Tom 26

603--615

EN

Every year, there is a decline in the number of car accidents reported in Poland, the Czech Republic, and globally. While recent trends due to the pandemic have influenced these figures, the overall rate remains significant. Therefore, it is crucial to take measures aimed at reducing this number. The primary focus of this article is to analyze the traffic accident statistics for Poland and the Czech Republic. Annual data regarding traffic incidents in both countries has been scrutinized to achieve this. Projections for 2024 to 2030 have been developed based on police reports. Various neural network models were utilized to forecast the number of accidents. The findings indicate that the number of traffic incidents is likely to stabilize. This stabilization can be viewed in the context of the increasing number of vehicles on the roads and the expansion of new highways. Additionally, selecting sample sizes for training, testing, and validation is crucial in influencing the results. Forecasting the number of traffic accidents is important for environmental protection, as accidents can lead to air and water pollution and increase noise, negatively affecting human health and ecosystems.

15

Zmiany po pandemii COVID-19 w Krakowie – analiza na przykładzie budynków biurowych i lokali biurowych wynajmowanych od miasta

Owczarek Eliza, Cieślak Julia Maria

PUA Przestrzeń Urbanistyka Architektura

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2024

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Vol. 2

22--35

PL

Pandemia COVID-19 w kontekście architektury zapoczątkowała lub przyspieszyła liczne zmiany dotyczące funkcjonowania budynków. Konieczność pracy zdalnej w tamtym czasie spowodowała, że w wielu przypadkach stała się ona stałym trendem. Badania dotyczące Krakowa wskazują, że obecnie, po pandemii, podaż związana z powierzchnią biurową znacznie przewyższa popyt. Ponadto po lockdownie wielu najemców budynków biurowych przeniosło swoją działalność do mniejszych lokali miejskich, wynajmowanych od Zarządu Budynków Komunalnych.

EN

The COVID-19 pandemic in the context of architecture has initiated or accelerated numerous changes regarding the functioning of buildings. The necessity of remote work at that time caused it to become a permanent trend in many cases. Research on Cracow indicates that currently, after the pandemic, the supply related to office space significantly exceeds demand. Moreover, after the lockdown, many office building tenants moved their activity to smaller city office premises, rented from ZBK.

16

Blaski i cienie rynku książki

Dobrołęcki Piotr

Przegląd Papierniczy

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2024

|

R. 80, nr 1

24--27

PL

Drugi rok rosyjskiej agresji na Ukrainę, wysoka inflacja, spadki kursu złotego i niełatwe do interpretowania zmiany w przepisach finansowych – wszystkie te czynniki miały w 2023 r. wpływ na polską gospodarkę, a więc też na rynek książki. Rok wcześniej obserwowaliśmy znaczący wzrost cen druku, papieru i innych materiałówpoligraficznych, co wpłynęło na wzrost kosztów produkcji książek, a w konsekwencji na wzrost ich cen detalicznych. Na statystyczne podsumowania ubiegłego roku na rynku książki musimy jeszcze poczekać, aż instytucje za to odpowiedzialne ogłoszą zebrane dane. Możemy jednak odnieść siędoroku poprzedniego, abyprzedstawićobrazo wielkości tego rynku i podstawowych tendencjach. W 2022 r. przychody wydawców europejskich wyniosły 23,9 mld EUR i w tym czasie opublikowano 575 tys. nowych tytułów, jak podsumowała Europejska Federacja Wydawców (FEP – Federation of European Publishers). W dalszym ciągu w przychodach wydawców dominują książki drukowane, a publikacje elektroniczne są dopełnieniem rynku. Nastąpiło odbicie po kryzysie covidowym, przychody wydawców wzrosły o 1,3% w stosunku do roku poprzedniego. W ogłoszonym pod koniec ubiegłego roku raporcie „Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2023-2027”, opracowanym przez PwC Polska, prognozuje się, że przychody segmentu obejmującego gazety, czasopisma i książki będą spadać co roku o 0,4%, w tym rynek książki o 0,1%.

17

Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland by province

Gorzelanczyk Piotr

Przegląd Komunikacyjny

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2024

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R. 79, nr 4/5

13--22

PL

Każdego roku na polskich drogach ginie bardzo duża liczba osób. Z roku na rok wartość ta spada, ale liczba ta nadal jest bardzo wysoka. Pandemia znacznie zmniejszyła liczbę wypadków drogowych, ale wartość ta nadal jest bardzo wysoka. Z tego powodu należy dowiedzieć się, w których województwach dochodzi do największej liczby wypadków drogowych oraz poznać prognozę wypadków na najbliższe lata, aby móc zrobić wszystko, aby tę liczbę zminimalizować. Celem artykułu jest sporządzenie prognozy liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce w podziale na województwa. W tym celu przeanalizowano miesięczne dane dotyczące liczby wypadków w Polsce w latach 2007-2021 pochodzące ze statystyk Policji oraz dokonano prognozy na lata 2022-2024. Na podstawie uzyskanych danych można stwierdzić, że pandemia spowodowała spadek liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce średnio o 21%. Rozrzut w zależności od województwa waha się w przedziale: 10% dla województwa lubuskiego do prawie 53% dla województwa lubelskiego. Spadek jest najbardziej zauważalny w województwach lubelskim, wielkopolskim i małopolskim. Ponadto prognozy pokazują, że w obecnej sytuacji możemy spodziewać się dalszego spadku liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce. Wyniki badania pokazują, że nadal możemy spodziewać się podobnego poziomu wypadków drogowych jak przed pandemią z minimalnym spadkiem na polskich drogach, ale panująca pandemia zniekształca uzyskane wyniki. Do prognozowania liczby wypadków drogowych wykorzystano szeregi czasowe i modele wykładnicze.

EN

Every year a very large number of people die on Polish roads. From year to year, the value decreases, but the number is still very high. The pandemic has significantly reduced the number of road accidents, but the value is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to find out which provinces have the highest number of traffic accidents and to know the accident forecast for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize this number. The purpose of the article is to make a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland by province. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of accidents in Poland in 2007-2021 from the statistics of the Police were analyzed, and a forecast was made for 2022-2024. Based on the data obtained, it can be said that the pandemic caused a decrease in the number of road accidents in Poland by an average of 21%. The spreads depending on the province sniff in the range: 10% for Lubuskie Voivodeship to almost 53% for Lubelskie Voivodeship. The decrease is most noticeable in the Lubelskie, Wielkopolskie and Małopolskie provinces. In addition, forecasts show that in the current situation we can expect a further decrease in the number of road accidents in Poland. The results of the study show that we can still expect a similar level of road accidents as before the pandemic with a minimal decrease on Polish roads, but the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained. Time series and exponential models were used to forecast the number of traffic accidents.

18

The Position of European Union Countries According to Poverty Before and After the COVID-19 Crisis

Marković Milan

Problemy Ekorozwoju

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2024

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Vol. 19, no. 2

6--13

EN

The purpose of the paper is to evaluate and present the position of the European Union countries according to the poverty level before and after the COVID-19 crisis, combining five individual indicators. The GRA (Grey Relational Analysis) method was used to calculate the composite poverty indicator. To assess poverty, the study uses criteria from the official database of the European Commission and calculates the aggregate index for 2019 and 2022. All criteria in the model have the same relative importance because the method of equal weight coefficients is applied. The paper proved that the Czech Republic and Slovenia had the most favourable indicators of poverty in both periods, while Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, and Latvia occupied a critical position. In general, the countries of Southern Europe and the Baltic countries have poor poverty indicators. Compared to 2019, according to the country rankings, the poverty level is significantly higher in Finland, Germany, and Hungary, while after the pandemic, the following countries made considerable progress in reducing poverty: Poland, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Cyprus. The presented results can be useful to decision-makers at the macro level in the field of economic, social, and sustainable development policy.

PL

Celem artykułu jest ocena i przedstawienie pozycji krajów Unii Europejskiej według poziomu ubóstwa przed i po kryzysie COVID-19, łącząc pięć wskaźników indywidualnych. Do obliczenia złożonego wskaźnika ubóstwa wykorzystano metodę GRA (Grey Relational Analysis). Do oceny ubóstwa w badaniu wykorzystano kryteria z oficjalnej bazy Komisji Europejskiej oraz obliczono zagregowany wskaźnik dla lat 2019 i 2022. Wszystkie kryteria w modelu mają taką samą wagę względną, ponieważ zastosowano metodę równych współczynników wagowych. W artykule wykazano, że najkorzystniejsze wskaźniki ubóstwa w obu okresach posiadały Czechy i Słowenia, natomiast krytyczne miejsce zajmowała Grecja, Rumunia, Bułgaria i Łotwa. Ogólnie rzecz biorąc, kraje Europy Południowej i kraje bałtyckie mają słabe wskaźniki ubóstwa. W porównaniu do roku 2019, według rankingów krajowych, poziom ubóstwa jest znacząco wyższy w Finlandii, Niemczechi na Węgrzech, natomiast po pandemii znaczny postęp w ograniczaniu ubóstwa poczyniły kraje: Polska, Belgia, Luksemburg i Cypr. Zaprezentowane wyniki mogą być przydatne dla decydentów na poziomie makro w zakresie polityki gospodarczej, społecznej izrównoważonego rozwoju

19

Labour market regulation of individual countries under an applied interpretation of keynes and friedman's theories

Alishli Aynur, Alili Amil, Teymurova Vusala, Huseynov Rashad

Polish Journal of Management Studies

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2024

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Vol. 29, No. 1

24--42

EN

The study intends to analyse the realities of labour market regulation in the transition economies of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia using Keynesian theory and the monetary approach. The research methods included the identification of key indicators of economic activity within the context of macroeconomic development features and comparative analysis of statistical data on economic performance and labour market development based on international databases for countries in the region. Keynesian theory and the monetary approach were incorporated into the study design to discover and reevaluate labour vulnerabilities concerning objective economic impact possibilities. The novelty of the study lies in the determination of a model of government intervention that is more adequate for the development of the labour market and human capital based on the policy experience of the countries of the EECCA region as transition economies. The result of these studies is an assessment of the economic results and state of the labour market of the countries of the region. This assessment is based on international statistical data. It suggests that the optimal model is a policy distant from the extremes of high or minimal government intervention. Additionally, the use of a high degree of financial openness of the economy in the short term is recommended as an incentive for investment and market development, labour, and its integration into the global division of labour. This would offer a thorough examination of the overall economic interactions in the employment sector in light of the country’s national features.

PL

Badanie ma na celu analizę rzeczywistości regulacji rynku pracy w gospodarkach przejściowych Europy Wschodniej, Kaukazu i Azji Środkowej z wykorzystaniem teorii keynesowskiej i podejścia monetarnego. Metody badawcze obejmowały identyfikację kluczowych wskaźników aktywności gospodarczej w kontekście cech rozwoju makroekonomicznego oraz analizę porównawczą danych statystycznych dotyczących wyników ekonomicznych i rozwoju rynku pracy na podstawie międzynarodowych baz danych dla krajów regionu. Teoria keynesowska i podejście monetarne zostały włączone do projektu badania w celu odkrycia i ponownego ocenienia wrażliwości rynku pracy w odniesieniu do obiektywnych możliwości wpływu ekonomicznego. Nowością badania jest określenie modelu interwencji rządowej, który jest bardziej adekwatny dla rozwoju rynku pracy i kapitału ludzkiego, oparty na doświadczeniach politycznych krajów regionu EECCA jako gospodarek przejściowych. Wyniki tych badań to ocena wyników gospodarczych i stanu rynku pracy krajów regionu. Ocena ta opiera się na międzynarodowych danych statystycznych i sugeruje, że optymalny model to polityka oddalona od skrajności wysokiej lub minimalnej interwencji rządowej. Dodatkowo zaleca się stosowanie wysokiego stopnia otwartości finansowej gospodarki w krótkim okresie jako bodźca do inwestycji i rozwoju rynku pracy oraz jego integracji z globalnym podziałem pracy. To pozwoli na dogłębną analizę ogólnych interakcji gospodarczych w sektorze zatrudnienia w świetle cech narodowych danego kraju.

20

Application of neural networks to predict the number of traffic accidents depending on weather conditions

Gorzelańczyk Piotr

Mebutra

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2024

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No. 2

9--15

EN

Every year a significant number of people die on the roads. This value is decreasing from year to year, but it is still high. To this end, all measures should be taken to reduce this value. The purpose of the article is to forecast the number of road accidents in Poland depending on weather conditions. For this purpose, annual data on the number of road accidents in Poland according to the prevailing weather conditions were analyzed. Based on the data from the Police Department, a forecast was made for 2022-2040 depending on the occurrence of the criterion under study. Selected neural network models were used for the forecast. The results of the study indicate that we can still expect a decrease in the number of traffic accidents, and later its stabilization.