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What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
Słowa kluczowe
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Strony
809--827
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 45 poz.
Twórcy
autor
  • Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland, m.piniewski@levis.sggw.pl
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
autor
  • Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
  • Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
autor
  • Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
  • Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland
autor
  • Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland
autor
  • Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland
autor
  • Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-9861b694-c22f-4a0f-8696-b95fff823c7d
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