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Tytuł artykułu

Two deficits and economic growth: case of CEE countries in transition

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Warianty tytułu
PL
Dwa deficyty a wzrost ekonomiczny. Przypadek krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w fazie transformacji
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The main goal of this contribution was to provide evidence on the dynamic interdependencies between economic growth and budget and trade deficits in ten new EU members in transition in the last decade. It is worth to note, that besides establishing directions of causal relationships this paper also derived some suggestions on signs of the dynamic dependencies analyzed. Outcomes of this paper confirmed that the budget deficits were significantly slowing down the GDP growth rates in case of new EU-members in transition. In addition, these deficits had negative impact on the convergence process of examined countries towards the highly developed European economies. The evidence supporting adverse causality was considerably weaker. The empirical results allow to claim that in the period under study there was a unidirectional negative Granger causality from budget deficits to trade deficits. Therefore, in case of CEE economies in transition the twin deficit hypothesis was not the case.
PL
Głównym celem tego artykułu było dostarczenie dowodów na istnienie dynamicznych współzależności pomiędzy wzrostem ekonomicznym a deficytem budżetowym i handlowym w przypadku dziesięciu nowych członków Unii Europejskiej będących w fazie transformacji. Warto podkreślić, że oprócz ustalenia kierunków zależności przyczynowych w artykule tym podane zostały też sugestie dotyczące znaków badanych związków dynamicznych. W świetle wyników empirycznych deficyt budżetowy powodował poważne spowolnienie gospodarcze, jeśli chodzi o stopę wzrostu PKB nowych członków Unii Europejskiej w fazie transformacji. Ponadto deficyt spowalniał konwergencję gospodarek badanych krajów do gospodarek wysoko rozwiniętych państw Unii Europejskiej. Przyczynowość w odwrotnym kierunku okazała się być istotnie słabsza. Badania wykazały również, że w badanym okresie istniała jednokierunkowa zależność ujemna o charakterze przyczynowym w kierunku od deficytu budżetowego do deficytu handlowego. W przypadku państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej będących w fazie transformacji hipoteza o bliźniaczych deficytach nie znalazła zatem potwierdzenia w wynikach empirycznych.
Wydawca
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
79--108
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 37 poz., tab., wykr., rys.
Twórcy
autor
  • AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics
autor
  • AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics
Bibliografia
  • [1] Abell J., Twin Deficits during the 1980s:An Empirical Investigation, "Journal of Macroeconomics", 1990, Vol. 12 (1), pp. 81-96.
  • [2] Andrews D.W.K., Buchinsky M., A Three-Step Method for Choosing the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions, "Econometrica", 2000, Vol. 68, pp. 23-52.
  • [3] Aristovnik A., Zajc K., Current Account Performance and Fiscal Policy. Evidence on the Twin Deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, INFER, 2001, Annual Conference - Economies of Transition: Theory, Experience and EU Enlargement.
  • [4] Barro R.J., The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits, "Journal of Economic Perspectives", 1989, Vol. 3 (2), pp. 37-54.
  • [5] Bierens H.J., Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate, "Journal of Econometrics", 1997a, Vol. 81, pp. 29-64.
  • [6] Bierens H.J., Nonparametric cointegration analysis, "Journal of Econometrics", 1997b, Vol. 77, pp. 379-404.
  • [7] Bierens H.J., Nonparametric nonlinear co-trending analysis, with an application to inflation and interest in the US, "Journal of Business and Economic Statistics", 2000, Vol. 18, pp. 323-337.
  • [8] Cavallo M., Understanding the twin deficits: new approaches, new results, "FRBSF Economic Letter", 2005, Vol. 16, pp. 1-3.
  • [9] Daly V, Siddiki J.U., The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts, "Applied Economics Letters", 2009, Vol. 16, pp. 1155-1164.
  • [10] Etzioni A., A Matter of Goals: High Growth - Or Deficit Reduction?, "Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance", 1989, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 555-570.
  • [11] FeyrerJ., Scambaugh J.C, Global Saving and Global Investment The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks, "NBER, Working Paper Series", 2009.
  • [12] Ganchev G.T., The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria, "Financial Theory and Practice", 2010, Vol. 34 (4), pp. 357-377.
  • [13] Gelman A., Analysis of variance - why it is more important than ever, "The Annals of Statistics", 2005, Vol. 33, pp. 1-53.
  • [14] Granger C.W.J., Huang L-L., Evaluation of Panel Data Models: Some Suggestions from Time Series, Discussion Paper 97-10, University of California, 1997.
  • [15] Gurgul H., Lach Ł., The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition, "Energy Policy", 2011a, Vol. 39, pp. 2088-2099.
  • [16] Gurgul H., Lach Ł., The impact of regional disparities on economic growth, "Operations Research and Decisions", 2011b, Vol. 22(2), pp. 37-63.
  • [17] Gurgul H., Lach Ł., The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy, "Energy Economics", 2012, Vol. 34(2), pp. 500-510.
  • [18] Hacker S.R., Hatemi-J A., Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application, "Applied Economics", 2006, Vol. 38, pp. 1489-1500.
  • [19] Harberger A., Lessons from Monetary and Real Exchange Rate Economics, "Cato Journal", 2008, Vol. 28 (2), pp. 225-235.
  • [20] Herrmann S., Jochem A., Determinants of Current Account Developments in the Central and East European EU Member States - Consequences for the Enlargement of the Euro Area, Bundesbank, Discussion Papers, Series 1: Economic Studies, 2005, No 32.
  • [21] Holmes M.J., A reassessment of the twin deficits relationship, "Applied Economics Letters", 2010, Vol. 17, pp. 1209-1212.
  • [22] Horowitz J.L., Bootstrap methods in econometrics: Theory and numerical performance, in: Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Kreps D.M., Wallis K.F. (eds), 1995, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 188-232.
  • [23] Johnson H., The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: A Non-technical Guide, "Journal of International Economics", 1977, Vol. 7 (3), pp. 251-268.
  • [24] Katircioglu S.T, Fethi S., Fethi M.D., Twin deficits phenomenon in small islands: an empirical investigation by panel data analysis, "Applied Economics Letters", 2009, Vol. 16, pp. 1569-1573.
  • [25] Kim S., Roubini N., Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy current account, and real exchange rate in the US, "Journal of International Economics", 2008, Vol. 74, pp. 362-383.
  • [26] Kohler M., Capital Mobility and Current Account Targeting in Central and Eastern European Countries, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), 2005, Discussion Paper No. 05-51.
  • [27] Leachman L.L., Francis B., Twin deficits: apparition or reality? "Applied Economics", 2002, Vol. 34, pp. 1121-1132.
  • [28] Liu R.Y., Bootstrap procedure under some non-i.i.d. models, "Annals of Statistics", 1998, Vol. 16, pp. 1696-1708.
  • [29] Lutkepohl H., Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 1993, Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • [30] Newey W.K., West K.D., A Simple Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix, "Econometrica", 1987, Vol. 55, pp. 703-708.
  • [31] Perez-Moreno S.,An Assessment of the Causal Relationship between Growth and Inequality in Spanish Provinces, "European Planning Studies", 2009, Vol. 17, pp. 389-400.
  • [32] Phillips P.C.B., Understanding the spurious regression in econometrics, "Journal of Econometrics", 1986, Vol. 33, pp. 311-340.
  • [33] Polak J J.,The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments: Keynesian and Johnsonian, 2001, International Monetary Fund, WP/01/100. .
  • [34] Robinson G.K., That BLUP is a good thing: The estimation of random effects (with discussion), "Statistical Science", 1991, Vol. 6, pp. 15-51.
  • [35] Summers L.H., Tax Policy and International Competitiveness, in: Frenkel J. (ed), International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, 1988, Chicago: Chicago University Press, pp. 349-375.
  • [36] Vyshnyak O., Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case of Ukraine, 2000, Kyiv: National University Kyiv, Mohyla Academy
  • [37] Weinhold D., ReisE., Model evaluation and testing for causality in short panels: The case of infrastructure provision and population growth in the Brazilian Amazon, "Journal of Regional Science", 2001, Vol. 41, pp. 639-657.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-784b7e37-9e32-42f0-a7b1-24b791b6ec18
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