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Tytuł artykułu

Intense precipitation and high river flows in Europe - observations and projections

Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Several destructive floods have occurred in the last decade in Europe, causing record high material damage. The question of detection and attribution of changes in various flood-related indices attracts increasing interest. Among the mechanisms that can impact flood risk are changes in socio-economic systems, which influence terrestrial systems, and changes in the climatic system. The atmosphere's water holding capacity (and hence potential for intense precipitation) increases with temperature and more intense precipitation has been documented in the warming world. However, a general and coherent increase in high river flows has not been detected. Results of change detection studies of daily river flow in Europe show that the overall maxima (for the 1961-2000 period) occurred more frequently in the subperiod 1981-2000 than in the subperiod 1961-1980. Regional changes in the timing of floods have been reported in many areas of Europe, with increasing incidence of late autumn and winter floods (caused by rain) and fewer spring snowmelt floods. Also, the number of ice-jam related inundations has decreased. On the other hand, intensive and long-lasting summer precipitation episodes have led to disastrous floods in Central Europe (cf. the 1997 Odra/Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe), and river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard in the region. Significant differences between future projections and the reference period, indicating the likelihood of increasing flood hazard, have been identified in both intense precipitation and high flows.
Rocznik
Strony
385--400
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 29 poz.
Twórcy
  • Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland, zkundze@man.poznan.pl
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Telegrafenberg, D-14 412 Potsdam, Germany
Bibliografia
  • Arnell, N., and Liu Chunzhen (Coordinating Lead Authors), 2001: "Hydrology and water resources". In: J.J. Mc Carthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken and K.S. White (eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001b), Chap. 4, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. Bardossy, A., and H.-J. Caspary, 1990: "Detection of climate change in Europe by analysing European atmospheric circulation patterns from 1881 to 1989", Theor. Appl. Climatt 42, pp. 155-167.
  • Becker, A., and U. Griinewald, 2003: "Flood risk in Central Europe", Science 300, p. 1099.
  • Bronstert, A., 2003: "Floods and climate change: interactions and impacts". Risk Analysis 2 pp. 545-557.
  • Christensen, J.H., and O.B. Christensen, 2003: "Severe summertime flooding in Europe” Nature 421, p. 805.
  • Engel, H., 1997: "The flood events of 1993/1994 and 1995 in the Rhine River basin". In: G.H. Leavesley, H.F. Lins, F. Nobilis, R.S. Parker, V.R. Schneider and F.H.M. van de Ven (eds.). Destructive Water: Water-caused Natural Disasters, their Abatement and Control, IAHS Publ. No. 239, pp. 21-32.
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001a: "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis". In: J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Nouger, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (eds.). Contribution of the Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001b: "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability". In: J.J. Mc Carthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken and K.S. White (eds.). Contribution of the Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
  • Kubat, J., et at., 2003: "Summary Report on Hydrometeorological Situation during the Angus 2002 Floods", Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague.
  • Kundzewicz, Z.W., 2005: "Change detection in high river flows in Europe". In: Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change - Hydroclimatic Variability (Proc. of Symposium S6 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS Publ. No. 296, pp. 71-80, IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
  • Kundzewicz, Z.W., K. Szamałek and P. Kowalczak, 1999: "The great flood of 1997 in Poland", Hydrol. Sci. J. 44 (6), pp. 855-870.
  • Kundzewicz, Z.W., D. Graczyk, T. Maurer, I. Pińskwar, M. Radziejewski, C. Svensson and M. Szwed, 2004: Detection of change in world-wide hydrological time series of annual maximum flow. Report to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Worid Climate Programme - Water. World Climate Programme Applications and Services (WCASP), Report WCASP-64, WMO/TD-No.l239. WMO, Geneva. Also published by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) under the same title, as Report 32 in the GRDC Report Series, GRDC Koblenz, 36 pp. + appendices Downloadable from http://grdc.bafg.de/7911.
  • Kundzewicz, Z.W., D. Graczyk, T. Maurer, I. Pińskwar, M. Radziejewski, C. Svensson and M. Szwed, 2005a: "Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow". Hydrol. Sci. J. 50 (5).
  • Kundzewicz, Z.W., U. Ulbrich, T. Brucher, D. Graczyk, G. Leckebusch, L. Menzel, I. Przymusińska, M. Radziejewski and M. Szwed, 2005b: "Summer floods in Central Europe - climate change track?" Natural Hazards (in press).
  • Lindstrom, G., and S. Bergstrom, 2004: "Runoff trends in Sweden 1807-2002", Hydrol. Sci. J. 49, pp. 69-83.
  • Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne and T.L. Delworth, 2002: "Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate". Nature 415, pp. 514-517.
  • Mitosek, H.T., 1995: "Climate variability and change within the discharge time series: A statistical approach". Climatic Change 29, pp. 101-116.
  • Mudelsee, M., M. Bomgen, G. Tetzlaff and U. Griinewald, 2003: "No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe", Nature 421, pp. 166-169.
  • Munich Re, 2003: Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2002, Topic 10.
  • New, M., M. Hulme and P.D. Jones, 1999: "Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability, part 1: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology", J. Climate 12, pp. 829-856.
  • Nobilis, F., and P. Lorenz, 1997: "Flood trends in Austria". In: G.H. Leavesley, H.F. Lins, F. Nobilis, R.S. Parker, V.R. Schneider and F.H.M. van de Ven (eds.). Destructive Water: Water-caused Natural Disasters, their Abatement and Control, pp. 77-81, IAHS Publ. No. 239, IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
  • Osborn, T.J., M. Hulme, P.D. Jones and T.A. Basnet, 2000: "Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation". Int. J. Climatol. 20, pp. 347-364.
  • Palmer, T.N., and J. Raisanen, 2002: "Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate". Nature 415, pp. 512-514.
  • Parry, M.L. (ed.), 2000: Assessment of Potential Effects and Adaptations for Climate Change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA Project. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 324 pp.
  • Radziejewski, M., and Z.W. Kundzewicz, 2004: "Detectability of changes in hydrological records". Hydrol. Sci. J. 49 (1), pp. 39-51.
  • Robson, A.J., and D.W. Reed, 1996: "Non-stationarity in UK flood records". Flood Estimation Handbook Note 25, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.
  • Rudolf, B., and J. Rao, 2003: "The century flood of the River Elbe in August 2002: Synoptic weather development and climatological aspects". Quarterly Report of the Operational NWP-Models of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Special Topic July 2002, Offenbach, Germany, pp. 7-22.
  • Svensson, C, Z.W. Kundzewicz and T. Maurer, 2004: "Trends in flood and low flow hydrological time series". Report to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), World Climate Programme - Water. World Climate Programme Applications and Services Report WCASP - 66, WMO/TD-No. 1241. WMO, Geneva. Also published by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) under the title "Trends in flood and low flow series" as Report 33 in the GRDC Report Series. GRDC, Koblenz, 26 pp. + appendices. Downloadable from http://grdc.bafg.de/7911.
  • Svensson, C, Z.W. Kundzewicz and T. Maurer, 2005: "Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low flow index series", Hydrol. Sci. J. 50 (5).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-70bcdba4-6dee-4695-8231-40bb5888f0e0
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